Bo Nix
Denver Broncos·#10UNDERPAIDModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 17 games
Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats
STM Take
Nix posted STTM #14 tier 4 as a rookie and held the trajectory at #11 tier 3 in year two, the kind of two-year continuity rookies in this range rarely produce. The case is real but it is a tier-3 case, not a tier-1 one. Sean Payton's offense gives him a structurally high floor; the ceiling argument needs more vertical aggression than the 2025 profile showed.
Nix was born in Arkadelphia, Arkansas and played under his father at Pinson Valley in Alabama before three years at Auburn and two at Oregon, where he won 2023 Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year and set the FBS single-season completion percentage record at 77.45 percent. Denver took him 12th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft and named him the starter as a rookie. He led the Broncos to the playoffs in year one and to a division title plus a playoff win in year two, both firsts for Denver since 2015.
Strengths
- Two consecutive top-15 finishes to start a career, with a division title and playoff win in his second year.
- Recent game floor is genuinely steady, with no zero-point weeks in the back half of 2025 and games clustered between 10 and 29 PPR.
Concerns
- Two tier-3-or-worse seasons with no statistical signal pointing toward a tier-1 jump in year three.
- Sean Payton offense is structurally conservative on attempts; the rushing component (786 career yards, 9 TDs) isn't large enough to lift the ceiling on its own.
What to watch: Whether Payton expands the deep-shot menu in year three; the tier-1 case requires more downfield volume than 2025 produced.
Fantasy Outlook
Bo Nix scored 301 PPR points, 17.7 per game this season. Compare him against any QB and track weekly rankings in our fantasy tools.