Justin Herbert
Los Angeles Chargers·#10Season Stats · 16 games
Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats
STM Take
Herbert sits STTM #19 tier 5 in 2025, his lowest finish since the 2021 tier-2 peak. The trajectory has been monotonically down: tier 2 in 2021, tier 4 in 2023, tier 4 in 2024, tier 5 in 2025. The 2025 Pro Bowl nod looks more like reputation than current production; the rank quietly disagrees with the resume.
Herbert was born in Eugene, Oregon, broke his leg as a high school junior, and stayed home to play for the Oregon Ducks. He won the 2019 Pac-12 Championship and the 2019 Campbell Trophy, then was the sixth overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. He was named Offensive Rookie of the Year and set rookie records for passing touchdowns (31) and pass completions (396). He became the first Chargers quarterback to throw for over 5,000 yards in 2021, signed a five-year, $262.5M extension in 2023, and earned a second Pro Bowl in 2025.
Strengths
- Career 66.5 percent completion on 3,438 attempts and 163 TDs against 58 INTs is a top-decile efficiency profile.
- Two-time Pro Bowler with $262.5M of contract validation behind the team's read on him.
Concerns
- Four straight years tier 4 or worse after the 2021 tier-2 peak; the rank trend is going the wrong way.
- 2025 PPR floor included a 3.34-point week, the kind of bottom-out his rank has been quietly building toward.
What to watch: Whether the Chargers' run-game and protection investments finally produce a tier-3 or better season, or whether the slow decline continues.
Fantasy Outlook
Justin Herbert scored 240 PPR points, 15 per game this season. Compare him against any QB and track weekly rankings in our fantasy tools.