Justin Herbert

Los Angeles Chargers·#10

Pos QBHt 6'6"Wt 237 lbExp 6 yrCollege Oregon

Updated September 21, 2026

QB rankings →

Model Score

87.2 MODEL

2020

86.7

2021

91.7

2022

90.7

2023

89.0

2024

87.2

2025

87.2

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 1 games

209

Pass Yds

Pass TD

INT

63.0%

Comp %

Rush Yds

Rush TD

13.3

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

-5.6

Total EPA

-0.187

EPA / dropback

2.73s

Time to throw

10.8

Avg air yards

18.5%

Aggressiveness

27 yd

Longest comp (air)

Draft & College

Round 1, pick 6 · Los Angeles Chargers · 2020

Oregon (Pac-12)

Taken

where he actually went

Consensus board

6th

average of the public big boards that spring

Our college model

#30

among QB in our college data

He went about where consensus had him.

In college · 2016-2019 · 43 games

9,759 pass yds, 82 TD, 18 INT, 60.6% completions

Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.

Coming out

4.68s

40 yd

35.5"

Vertical

123"

Broad

7.06s

3-cone

4.46s

Shuttle

Comps

College career

his college career vs theirs

Sam Ehlinger86%Jerod Evans85%Brendan Sorsby81%

STM Take

Herbert sits STTM #19 tier 5 in 2025, his lowest finish since the 2021 tier-2 peak. The trajectory has been monotonically down: tier 2 in 2021, tier 4 in 2023, tier 4 in 2024, tier 5 in 2025. The 2025 Pro Bowl nod looks more like reputation than current production; the rank quietly disagrees with the resume.

Herbert was born in Eugene, Oregon, broke his leg as a high school junior, and stayed home to play for the Oregon Ducks. He won the 2019 Pac-12 Championship and the 2019 Campbell Trophy, then was the sixth overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. He was named Offensive Rookie of the Year and set rookie records for passing touchdowns (31) and pass completions (396). He became the first Chargers quarterback to throw for over 5,000 yards in 2021, signed a five-year, $262.5M extension in 2023, and earned a second Pro Bowl in 2025.

Strengths

Career 66.5 percent completion on 3,438 attempts and 163 TDs against 58 INTs is a top-decile efficiency profile.
Two-time Pro Bowler with $262.5M of contract validation behind the team's read on him.

Concerns

Four straight years tier 4 or worse after the 2021 tier-2 peak; the rank trend is going the wrong way.
2025 PPR floor included a 3.34-point week, the kind of bottom-out his rank has been quietly building toward.

What to watch: Whether the Chargers' run-game and protection investments finally produce a tier-3 or better season, or whether the slow decline continues.