Justin Herbert
Los Angeles ChargersJustin Herbert has 1,398 passing yards, 5 touchdown passes, 10 interceptions and 183 rushing yards in 7 games for the Los Angeles Chargers this season through Week 8, 10.6 PPR points a game (updated November 4, 2026).
Model Score by season
Holding at 84.0.
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
STM Take
A franchise quarterback whose play keeps slipping below his reputation.
The case for
- Career 66.5 percent completion on 3,438 attempts and 163 TDs against 58 INTs is a top-decile efficiency profile.
- Two-time Pro Bowler with $262.5M of contract validation behind the team's read on him.
The worry
- Four straight years tier 4 or worse after the 2021 tier-2 peak; the rank trend is going the wrong way.
- 2025 PPR floor included a 3.34-point week, the kind of bottom-out his rank has been quietly building toward.
What to watch: Whether the Chargers' run-game and protection investments finally produce a tier-3 or better season, or whether the slow decline continues.
Full take and bio
Herbert sits STTM #19 tier 5 in 2025, his lowest finish since the 2021 tier-2 peak. The trajectory has been monotonically down: tier 2 in 2021, tier 4 in 2023, tier 4 in 2024, tier 5 in 2025. The 2025 Pro Bowl nod looks more like reputation than current production; the rank quietly disagrees with the resume.
Herbert was born in Eugene, Oregon, broke his leg as a high school junior, and stayed home to play for the Oregon Ducks. He won the 2019 Pac-12 Championship and the 2019 Campbell Trophy, then was the sixth overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. He was named Offensive Rookie of the Year and set rookie records for passing touchdowns (31) and pass completions (396). He became the first Chargers quarterback to throw for over 5,000 yards in 2021, signed a five-year, $262.5M extension in 2023, and earned a second Pro Bowl in 2025.
Comps
The players whose size, testing and production looked most like his at the same point in their careers. The percent is how close.
Plays like: Josh Freeman, Jake Plummer, David Carr. Built like: Logan Thomas, E.J. Manuel, Josh Freeman. Coming out: Josh Freeman.
Of his 20 closest coming out: 3 stars, 4 starters, 6 backups, 7 didn't stick.
Justin Herbert Props This Weekat LA
| Market | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 207.5 | -115 Bovada | -115 Bovada |
| Rushing yards | 24.5 | -115 Bovada | -115 Bovada |
Best price across 9 books as of Mon Nov 2. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room
Play Justin's numbers on Underdog · partner link
Justin Herbert Injury StatusNot listed
Justin Herbert is not on the injury report as of Nov 4. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.
This season · 7 games
10.6 fantasy points a game, 74 PPR on the season. Every game on the Game Log, every season on Career. Advanced numbers are EPA and Next Gen Stats.
Contract2026 cap
Every year of the deal, the dead money and what a cut or trade saves on the Contract tab.
Fantasy outlookWeek 9
Our rest-of-season board has Justin Herbert at QB24 (the public consensus says QB27); the model has 136 PPR points left for him this season; this week he visits LA.
Price a trade for him on the fantasy trade calculator, or see the whole board on the Fantasy hub.
Draft & College
Round 1, pick 6 to the Los Angeles Chargers in 2020, out of Oregon (Pac-12). He went about where consensus had him.
In college, 2016-2019, 43 games: 10,053 pass yds, 95 TD, 18 INT, 60.6% completions. Coming out: 4.68s 40 yd, 35.5" vertical, 123" broad, 7.06s 3-cone, 4.46s shuttle.
Recruited
Class of 2016 · Quarterback · High school: Sheldon, Eugene, OR
OregonHis full list of offers is not on our record yet; offers for the 2016 class are still being added.