Justin Herbert
Los Angeles Chargers·#10Model Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
STM Take
Herbert sits STTM #19 tier 5 in 2025, his lowest finish since the 2021 tier-2 peak. The trajectory has been monotonically down: tier 2 in 2021, tier 4 in 2023, tier 4 in 2024, tier 5 in 2025. The 2025 Pro Bowl nod looks more like reputation than current production; the rank quietly disagrees with the resume.
Herbert was born in Eugene, Oregon, broke his leg as a high school junior, and stayed home to play for the Oregon Ducks. He won the 2019 Pac-12 Championship and the 2019 Campbell Trophy, then was the sixth overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. He was named Offensive Rookie of the Year and set rookie records for passing touchdowns (31) and pass completions (396). He became the first Chargers quarterback to throw for over 5,000 yards in 2021, signed a five-year, $262.5M extension in 2023, and earned a second Pro Bowl in 2025.
Strengths
- Career 66.5 percent completion on 3,438 attempts and 163 TDs against 58 INTs is a top-decile efficiency profile.
- Two-time Pro Bowler with $262.5M of contract validation behind the team's read on him.
Concerns
- Four straight years tier 4 or worse after the 2021 tier-2 peak; the rank trend is going the wrong way.
- 2025 PPR floor included a 3.34-point week, the kind of bottom-out his rank has been quietly building toward.
What to watch: Whether the Chargers' run-game and protection investments finally produce a tier-3 or better season, or whether the slow decline continues.
Comps
Of his 20 closest coming out: 3 stars, 4 starters, 6 backups, 7 didn't stick.
Justin Herbert Props This Weekvs DEN Sun Oct 11
| Market | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 195.5 | -111 DraftKings | -113 DraftKings |
| Passing TDs | 1.5 | +180 DraftKings | -208 BetOnline |
| Completions | 18.5 | +105 Bovada | -115 BetMGM |
| Pass attempts | 30.5 | -103 DraftKings | -119 BetOnline |
| Interceptions | 0.5 | -122 BetOnline | +105 BetRivers |
| Rushing yards | 27.5 | -107 DraftKings | -117 DraftKings |
| Carries | 5.5 | +114 DraftKings | -141 BetOnline |
| Longest rush | 12.5 | -118 DraftKings | -110 DraftKings |
| Anytime TD | +600 FanDuel |
Best price across 9 books as of Fri Oct 9. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room
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Justin Herbert Injury StatusNot listed
Justin Herbert is not on the injury report as of Oct 9. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.
Justin Herbert Stats This Season · 4 games
Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Justin Herbert Fantasy Outlook
Justin Herbert scored 45 PPR points, 11.3 per game this season. Compare him against any QB and track weekly rankings in our fantasy tools.