BrownsatJets

The tale of the tape

This is a grind Cleveland must win through the air. The Browns run game ranks 29th against a Jets run defense that ranks 10th, though 13th once you account for the run games it has faced. Since 2015, teams with a run-game edge this big won 58% but covered only 52%, because the line already knows. Expect the Browns to give up on Quinshon Judkins and the run early. That suits them: they line up in shotgun on three of every four snaps and throw more than the situation calls for, 3rd-most in the league. They should have time: 14th in protection against a Jets pass rush ranked 31st. New York's answer is its red-zone defense, 8th, against a Browns red-zone offense that ranks 23rd. If those drives stall into field goals, that is where the game flips.

The best unit left is the Browns pass defense, 8th, against a Jets passing game ranked 18th. What blunts it: the Jets are 1st at not throwing interceptions, against a Browns defense 7th at picking them off. With Arian Smith and Omar Cooper Jr. on IR, expect the ball to find Garrett Wilson, who draws 29% of targets. The total splits. The Browns have gone over 11 of 15 on the road with a total of 41 or under, against 17 of 39 elsewhere, but with a new coach and quarterback this year. The side lines up: the Jets covered 3 of the last 4 meetings, and the angles back Jets -2.5 at nearly three times luck's count. Our picks on this game are on the card, behind the Betting Pass.