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Week 5 · Sunday Oct 11 · Final

LionsatCardinals

All week 5 games→Betting HQ→
FinalDET 45, ARI 21Lions by 24
SpreadDET -5.5Lions covered
Total55.5went over, 66 points
OpenedDET -8.5moved 3 points by kickoff

The angles leaned Lions -5.5: it hit.

Where it turned: the passing game. Expect the Lions to attack through the air all day.Sunday: Lions threw for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Depth charts

The charts as they stand today.

Detroit depth chart→Arizona depth chart→

Head to head

The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.

Lions with the ball

Lions offenseCardinals defense
11th
Passing
31st
8th
Run game
3rd
13thi
Pass rush
24thi
15th
Third down
21st
9th
Big plays
30th
1st
Turnovers
6th
4th
Red zone
24th

Cardinals with the ball

Cardinals offenseLions defense
25th
Passing
28th
14th
Run game
21st
9th
Pass rush
9th
16th
Third down
32nd
32nd
Big plays
29th
24th
Turnovers
23rd
19th
Red zone
32nd

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 4 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.

The tale of the tape

This is a mismatch, and it runs through Jared Goff's arm. Detroit's passing game ranks 11th and gets a Cardinals pass defense that ranks 31st. Arizona's pass rush is 24th at hitting the quarterback, and 27th once you account for the lines it has faced, so Goff should have time: he is 3rd of 36 from a clean pocket. Since 2015, teams with a passing edge this big won 68% of the time but covered only 47%, because the line already knows. Arizona's answer is its run defense, 3rd in the league, against a Lions run game that ranks 8th. The Lions line up under center more than anyone, on 55% of snaps, so that wall matters. If Arizona stuffs Jahmyr Gibbs early and Detroit gets impatient, that is where the game flips.

Arizona's best shot is a Lions defense that ranks 32nd on third down and 32nd in the red zone. The Cardinals throw short the 5th-most in the league, and Trey McBride gets 31% of their targets: he has 8 or more catches in 7 of his last 10 games as an underdog. What blunts it: Arizona ranks 32nd at big plays, so it has to march. For the bet, the side lines up. The Lions have covered 13 of 17 as a favorite after a loss, and the angles back Lions -4.5 at 2.7 times luck's count. The total splits: both teams' trends point over 54.5 (Cardinals 16 of 19 at home after a loss, Lions 19 of 26), while the angles lean under by a margin luck could explain.

Team totals

Lions scored 45 against a team total of 30.5: over. the spread and total, split; ours 28.8, 1.7 under.

Cardinals scored 21 against a team total of 25: under. the spread and total, split; ours 25.1, 0.1 over.

Team angles

Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. More of them than luck would give point at Lions -5.5.

Lions -5.5strongcovered
1,569 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 488.
3.2xluck's count
Under 55.5could be luckmissed, 66 points
4,074 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 2,501.
1.6xluck's count

Player angles

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Model plays

Graded: Small plays went 1-1; Watching went 1-0.

Under 54.5 (+100 at Courtside)Small play, 0.25ulost -0.25u
Script play: A rule (bet sheet): two proven library angles for the under hit one hundred fifty-two of two hundred twenty and seventy-nine of one hundred; The market (tuesday total): the model's total was fifty-three point nine against an opener of fifty-four, with edge-at-line-now of about six-tenths of a point to the under. Proof B: rule k Tuesday total Stamped Sun 3:13 PM ET.
Sam LaPorta over 51.5 receiving yards (-110.0)Small play, 2uwon, 88 receiving yards
His history (read tags): the leg fits the script with full sample share with Goff; His history (player trend): on the road he has gone over nine of fifteen, versus five of fourteen elsewhere; The matchup (matchup brief): Arizona allows tight ends one point two eight times league average, third-worst. Proof C: a prop-board spot outside the registered markets Stamped Fri 12:40 PM ET.
Elijah Higgins over 9.5 receiving yards (-115.0)Watching, not a betwon, 57 receiving yards
The market (projection): projection has him at about twenty-four yards with an over edge of about twenty-seven percent, flagged as the backup-TE test-bet type; The script (injuries): Marvin Harrison Jr. is out and his thirteen percent target share redistributes; The matchup (matchup brief): Detroit allows tight ends one point one nine times league average, fifth-worst. Proof C: a prop-board spot outside the registered markets Stamped Sun 3:13 PM ET.
DET -4.5withdrawn
Pulled Oct 7 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
9 more plays
Jared Goff anytime TDwithdrawn
Pulled Oct 8 when it stopped qualifying.
Elijah Higgins anytime TDwithdrawn
Pulled Oct 11 when it stopped qualifying.
ARI +4.5withdrawn
Pulled Oct 8 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
Jahmyr Gibbs under 90.5 rushing yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 10 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
Over 54.5withdrawn
Pulled Oct 11 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Jared Goff over 279.5 passing yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 10 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
Trey McBride under 80.5 receiving yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 10 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Marvin Harrison Jr. over 33.5 receiving yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 10 when it stopped qualifying.
Jacoby Brissett over 269.5 passing yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 11 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
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