DolphinsatJets

Longer bar, better unit.

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 6, close-game snaps.

Fewer people, betting bigger.

Bets is the share of tickets; money is the share of dollars. When the money runs well ahead of the bets, fewer people are betting bigger on that side, the move bettors call sharp money.

Spread

Dolphins+4.5-4.5Jets

Bets34%66%

Money56%44%

66% of the bets are on the Jets, but 56% of the money is on the Dolphins.

Since 2018: when most of the bets sat on one side and most of the money on the other, the money side covered 52.5% (178-161-14, 353 games). No better than a coin flip.

Total

Over39.539.5Under

Bets43%57%

Money7%93%

The under: 57% of the bets, 93% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.

Since 2018: when the money ran 20 or more points ahead of the bets on a side, the money side hit 56% (202-159-4, 365 games). Better than a coin flip, but inside the luck line: a random search finds that much by chance.

Moneyline

Dolphins+185-225Jets

Bets15%85%

Money11%89%

The public is on the Jets: 85% of the bets.

Since 2018: when 75% or more of the bets were on one side, that side won 71.6% straight up, -2.5 units at the posted prices (197-78, 275 games). About even once you pay the prices.

Bets and money splits via DraftKings, as of Fri 12:04 PM ET. One book's customers, not the whole market.

Dolphins team total 16.5 Bovada, over -125, under -105; the spread and total split it 17.5

Jets team total 22.5 Bovada, over -105, under -125; the spread and total split it 22.0

Dolphins +4.5some

1,452 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 658.

2.2xluck's count

Over 39.5could be luck

1,802 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 1,136.

1.6xluck's count

Searched this week: 1,216 spread situations and 87 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 4.04 on the spread and 3.4 on the total.

Dolphins +4.5: the strongest angles

what their defense allows to 6'3"+ receivers vs league 1.08 x or more; their cover rate minus the opponent's -35% or less 94-49

what their defense allows to 6'3"+ receivers vs league 1.08 x or more; their cover rate minus the opponent's -50% or less 70-35

what their defense allows to 6'3"+ receivers vs league 1.1 x or more; their cover rate minus the opponent's -35% or less 70-37

Jets -4.5: the strongest angles

the referee's cover rate for this side 39% or less; the opponent's receivers' height, by targets 73.06 in or less 53-27

the referee's cover rate for this side 42% or less; the opponent's receivers' height, by targets 73.06 in or less 94-54

the referee's cover rate for this side 42% or less; the opponent's receivers' height, by targets 72.88 in or less 65-38

Over 39.5: the strongest angles

their win rate 36% or less; their cover rate this season 75% or more 39-18

their win rate 36% or less; their cover rate this season 67% or more 42-21

their win rate 36% or less; their cover rate this season 70% or more 42-21

Under 39.5: the strongest angles

how much the opponent beat the spread a game (minus = missed) -4.32 pts or more; the opponent's win streak (minus = losing streak) -4 or less 104-61

points the opponent scored last game 22 pts or more; the opponent's win streak (minus = losing streak) -4 or less 57-31

the opponent's QB's starts with this team this season 4 or more; their cover rate minus the opponent's 50% or more 47-25