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PlayerCarlton Davis · CB, New England Patriots, Model Score 80.2Be the Patriots GM

Carlton Davis

New England PatriotsOVERPAID
Pos CB
Updated October 8, 2026

Model Score

80.2 MODEL
2018
68.6
2019
85.0
2020
86.2
2021
74.3
2022
78.7
2023
73.4
2024
76.2
2025
78.5

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

Super Bowl LV ring plus 2025 tier 2 (#14) Patriots STTM breakout puts Davis in the rare championship-pedigree late-career CB class. The Auburn SEC 2nd-round origin plus eight years of NFL development give him real veteran market value. The 2026 question is whether Davis earns his first Pro Bowl plus holds tier 2 territory or whether the structural team-fit volatility returns.

Davis came out of Auburn as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 2nd-round pick (63rd overall) in 2018 and won Super Bowl LV with the Buccaneers. He has bounced through the Buccaneers, Lions, and now Patriots across eight NFL seasons. His STTM career runs tier 3 (#24) in 2019, tier 8 (#61) in 2021, tier 8 (#81) in 2023, tier 6 (#44) in 2024 with Detroit, and tier 2 (#14) breakout in 2025 with New England.

Strengths

  • Super Bowl LV ring plus 2025 tier 2 (#14) Patriots STTM breakout puts him in the rare championship-pedigree late-career CB class.
  • Eight years of NFL survival across three teams gives him real journeyman veteran market value.

Concerns

  • Career STTM volatility (tier 8 in 2021 and 2023, tier 6 in 2024, tier 2 in 2025) confirms the ceiling is highly team-fit and scheme dependent.
  • Patriots' broader defensive identity transition compresses the structural support around Davis's late-prime chapter.

What to watch: Whether Davis earns his first Pro Bowl in 2026 plus holds tier 3 or better, the threshold for confirming the late-prime ceiling holds.

Comps

Coming out
pros whose college production, size and testing looked like his

Carlton Davis Injury StatusNot listed

Carlton Davis is not on the injury report as of Oct 7. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.

Draft & College

Round 2, pick 63 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 2018
Auburn (SEC)
Taken
#63
where he actually went
Consensus board
41st
average of the public big boards that spring
Our college model
#634
among CB in our college data

He went about where consensus had him.

In college · 2016-2017 · 25 games · partial record
1 INT, 21 pass breakups, 76 tackles, 2 TFL

Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.

Coming out
4.53s
40 yd
16 reps
Bench
34"
Vertical
124"
Broad
What this pick usually becomes

Of the 320 players taken as a second-rounder between 2012 and 2021, 63% earned a second contract and 58% became starters. The median one started 44 career games.

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