Ezra Cleveland
Jacksonville JaguarsModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 16 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Comps
STM Take
Tier 4 (#26) breakout in 2024 to tier 7 (#53) in 2025 is a 27-spot regression that flags the 2024 finish as either situational or a one-year context spike. The Boise State Mountain West technical foundation plus the trade-deadline change-of-scenery to Jacksonville provided the catalyst for the 2024 jump. The 2026 question is whether Cleveland returns to tier 5-6 territory or whether the 2025 tier 7 finish is the new baseline.
Cleveland came out of Boise State as the Minnesota Vikings' 2nd-round pick (58th overall) in 2020 and started for three seasons in Minnesota before being traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars at the 2023 trade deadline. He signed a three-year, $24M extension with the Jaguars in 2024. His STTM career runs tier 8 (#89) in 2021, tier 8 (#112) in 2022, tier 8 (#86) in 2023, tier 4 (#26) breakout in 2024, then tier 7 (#53) collapse in 2025.
Strengths
- 2024 tier 4 (#26) breakout finish after three straight tier 8 years confirms the structural starter ceiling exists when the team-fit aligns.
- Six years of NFL starter reps across two systems plus the $24M Jaguars extension gives him real veteran market value.
Concerns
- Career STTM range mostly in the tier 7-8 band (four of his six seasons) confirms the 2024 tier 4 peak was the outlier rather than the baseline.
- 27-spot regression from tier 4 (#26) to tier 7 (#53) in 2025 puts the $24M extension's contract value at risk.
What to watch: Whether Cleveland returns to tier 5 or better in 2026, the threshold for confirming the 2024 tier 4 finish was structural rather than situational.