Quenton Nelson

Indianapolis Colts

Pos LG

Updated October 8, 2026

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Model Score

96.0 MODEL

2018

82.6

2019

86.7

2020

90.7

2021

85.0

2022

75.5

2023

86.7

2024

82.2

2025

94.2

2026

96.0

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

Six straight Pro Bowls plus three 1st-team All-Pros plus the 2025 tier 1 (#8) finish keeps Nelson in the Hall-of-Fame trajectory conversation. The STTM career arc has been volatile across the past five years, with the 2022 tier 8 (#93) and 2024 tier 6 (#42) dips raising the question of whether the broader football world's Pro Bowl voting matches the on-field tape. The 2026 question is whether Nelson holds tier 2 or better as he closes his prime.

Nelson came out of Notre Dame as the Indianapolis Colts' 1st-round pick (6th overall) in 2018, the highest interior offensive line pick of the modern era. He has made six Pro Bowls (2018-2023) plus 1st-team All-Pro three times (2018, 2019, 2020), with widespread recognition as the best guard of his generation. His STTM career runs tier 6 (#41) in 2021, tier 8 (#93) shocking 2022 dip, tier 3 (#18) in 2023, tier 6 (#42) in 2024, and tier 1 (#8) bounce-back in 2025.

Strengths

Six Pro Bowls (2018-2023) plus three 1st-team All-Pros (2018, 2019, 2020) plus the 6th overall pick pedigree establishes a generational guard résumé that few interior linemen in NFL history match.
2025 tier 1 (#8) bounce-back from tier 6 (#42) in 2024 confirms the elite ceiling is still reachable at age 29.

Concerns

Career STTM volatility (tier 6 in 2021, tier 8 in 2022, tier 3 in 2023, tier 6 in 2024, tier 1 in 2025) shows the on-field production is more inconsistent than the Pro Bowl voting suggests.
Colts' broader offensive line transition plus six years of full-workload guard reps raise the structural wear question late career.

What to watch: Whether Nelson earns his seventh Pro Bowl in 2026 plus holds tier 2 or better, the threshold that locks in the Hall-of-Fame trajectory through age 30.