Quenton Nelson
Indianapolis ColtsModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 17 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Comps
STM Take
Six straight Pro Bowls plus three 1st-team All-Pros plus the 2025 tier 1 (#8) finish keeps Nelson in the Hall-of-Fame trajectory conversation. The STTM career arc has been volatile across the past five years, with the 2022 tier 8 (#93) and 2024 tier 6 (#42) dips raising the question of whether the broader football world's Pro Bowl voting matches the on-field tape. The 2026 question is whether Nelson holds tier 2 or better as he closes his prime.
Nelson came out of Notre Dame as the Indianapolis Colts' 1st-round pick (6th overall) in 2018, the highest interior offensive line pick of the modern era. He has made six Pro Bowls (2018-2023) plus 1st-team All-Pro three times (2018, 2019, 2020), with widespread recognition as the best guard of his generation. His STTM career runs tier 6 (#41) in 2021, tier 8 (#93) shocking 2022 dip, tier 3 (#18) in 2023, tier 6 (#42) in 2024, and tier 1 (#8) bounce-back in 2025.
Strengths
- Six Pro Bowls (2018-2023) plus three 1st-team All-Pros (2018, 2019, 2020) plus the 6th overall pick pedigree establishes a generational guard résumé that few interior linemen in NFL history match.
- 2025 tier 1 (#8) bounce-back from tier 6 (#42) in 2024 confirms the elite ceiling is still reachable at age 29.
Concerns
- Career STTM volatility (tier 6 in 2021, tier 8 in 2022, tier 3 in 2023, tier 6 in 2024, tier 1 in 2025) shows the on-field production is more inconsistent than the Pro Bowl voting suggests.
- Colts' broader offensive line transition plus six years of full-workload guard reps raise the structural wear question late career.
What to watch: Whether Nelson earns his seventh Pro Bowl in 2026 plus holds tier 2 or better, the threshold that locks in the Hall-of-Fame trajectory through age 30.