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PlayerMarshon Lattimore · CB, Washington Commanders, Model Score 76.0Be the Commanders GM

Marshon Lattimore

Washington CommandersOVERPAID
Pos CB
Updated September 26, 2026

Model Score

76.0 MODEL
2018
79.6
2019
83.1
2020
81.5
2021
88.3
2022
81.1
2023
78.2
2024
74.3
2025
72.1

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

2017 DROY plus four Pro Bowls plus 2023 tier 1 (#2) STTM peak plus the Ohio State 11th overall draft pedigree establishes Lattimore as one of the highest-pedigree CBs of his generation. The 2024-2025 tier 5-6 collapse from the 2023 elite ceiling flags the structural late-career decline plus the change-of-scenery context. The 2026 question is whether Lattimore returns to tier 3 territory with Washington or whether the elite chapter is closing.

Lattimore came out of Ohio State as the New Orleans Saints' 1st-round pick (11th overall) in 2017 and won the 2017 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. He has made four Pro Bowls (2017-2019, 2023) and was traded to the Washington Commanders at the 2024 trade deadline. His STTM career runs tier 5 (#40) in 2021, tier 1 (#6) in 2022, tier 1 (#2) peak in 2023, tier 5 (#38) in 2024, and tier 6 (#47) collapse in 2025.

Strengths

  • 2017 DROY plus four Pro Bowls plus 2023 tier 1 (#2) STTM peak plus the 11th overall draft pedigree establishes top-tier Hall-of-Fame CB résumé.
  • Ohio State 11th overall draft pedigree plus nine years of NFL elite production gives him real career foundation.

Concerns

  • 45-spot regression from tier 1 (#2) in 2023 to tier 6 (#47) in 2025 confirms the structural late-career decline is real.
  • Multi-year injury history (multiple hamstring, ankle absences) puts continued durability question on every 2026 projection.

What to watch: Whether Lattimore returns to tier 4 or better in 2026 with Washington, the threshold for confirming the late-prime ceiling holds.

Comps

Coming out
pros whose college production, size and testing looked like his

Marshon Lattimore Injury StatusNot listed

Marshon Lattimore is not on the injury report as of Sep 26. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.

Draft & College

Round 1, pick 11 · New Orleans Saints · 2017
Ohio State (Big Ten)
Taken
#11
where he actually went
Consensus board
4th
average of the public big boards that spring
Our college model
#219
among CB in our college data

He lasted longer than consensus.

In college · 2016 · 12 games · partial record
4 INT, 9 pass breakups, 41 tackles, 1 TFL

Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.

Coming out
4.36s
40 yd
38.5"
Vertical
132"
Broad
What this pick usually becomes

Of the 220 players taken as a late first-rounder between 2012 and 2021, 70% earned a second contract and 72% became starters. The median one started 58 career games.

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