Will Fries
Minnesota VikingsOVERPAIDModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 17 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Comps
STM Take
Career STTM range almost entirely in tier 8 across the entire window plus the $88M Vikings contract creates one of the largest contract-vs-STTM gaps in the league. The Penn State pedigree plus the 2024 midseason tibia/fibula injury context softens the 2025 finish. The 2026 question is whether Fries returns to tier 5-6 territory post-injury recovery or whether the $88M contract becomes a structural cap problem for Minnesota.
Fries came out of Penn State as the Indianapolis Colts' 7th-round pick (248th overall) in 2021 and emerged as the Colts' starting right guard across three seasons before breaking his tibia and fibula midseason in 2024. He signed a five-year, $88M deal with the Minnesota Vikings in 2025 free agency. His STTM career runs tier 8 (#83) in 2022, tier 8 (#66) in 2023, then tier 8 (#98) in 2025 with the Vikings post-injury.
Strengths
- Survived a 2024 tibia and fibula injury to return as the Vikings' starting right guard, demonstrating durability through one of the harder lower-leg injuries to recover from.
- Penn State Big Ten pedigree plus four years of NFL starter reps gives him real veteran market value that the $88M contract reflects.
Concerns
- Career STTM range almost entirely in tier 8 across the entire window creates major contract-value risk relative to the $88M Vikings contract.
- 2024 midseason tibia/fibula injury plus age 28 puts continued durability question on every 2026 projection.
What to watch: Whether Fries returns to tier 5 or better in 2026 post-injury recovery, the threshold for closing the gap between the $88M contract and STTM ranking.