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Does our college Model Score know where a player gets drafted?

Graded against every draft 2015-2026. Updated October 19, 2026, refit each May.

The record

35%

The score names the round, or the one next to it, 35% of the time.

4,349 players the score gave a draft word, 2015-2026 classes. It left 481 of the 2,287 drafted players unworded, 387 of them day-three picks.

See every player's score

Exact round 435One round off 1,088Two or more off 2,826

The word is the band a score earns at its position: the typical score of the players actually taken in that range, fitted per position because a 90 is a second-round running back and a first-round edge rusher. On the live board the scouts' consensus round is the floor and the score lifts a player at most two labels; here every past player is graded on the score alone, which is the harder test.

By position

RB is the position the score reads best: within a round 52% of the time.

Pos	Round 1 band	Right	Within a round	Rank match	n
RB	93+	44%	52%	0.51	302
IDL	91+	42%	44%	0.52	317
S	92+	33%	41%	0.51	346
WR	89+	52%	38%	0.53	510
QB	88+	50%	37%	0.48	236
CB	89+	33%	35%	0.51	480

Show all 11 positions

Pos	Round 1 band	Right	Within a round	Rank match	n
EDGE	90+	46%	35%	0.48	351
TE	92+	19%	34%	0.39	302
OT	88+	42%	28%	0.43	469
LB	84+	26%	28%	0.44	550
IOL	90+	16%	24%	0.41	486

Round 1 band: the score that reads First round at the position. Right: of the players at or above it, the share who went in the first round. Rank match: how closely score order matches draft order among drafted players, 0 to 1 (Spearman).

By class

Best class 2021 (42% within a round), worst 2015 (30%).

Class	Within a round	Rank match	n
2026	31%	0.49	525
2025	34%	0.52	471
2024	37%	0.51	362
2023	35%	0.50	396
2022	35%	0.42	392
2021	42%	0.48	310

Show all 12 classes

Class	Within a round	Rank match	n
2020	36%	0.51	445
2019	37%	0.36	453
2018	31%	0.52	439
2017	38%	0.47	342
2016	36%	0.50	100
2015	30%	0.32	114

The 2026 class is the newest finished draft; the current season is not graded until its draft is in.

Where the score was too high

Jacob Clark read Generational and went undrafted.

Jacob Clark
Missouri State · QB · 2026 class
undraftedwe said Generational (99)
KT
Keagen Trost
· OT · 2026 class
undraftedwe said Generational (99)
NO
Nick O'Leary
Florida State · TE · 2015 class
pick 194, round 6we said Generational (99)
DC
Damone Clark
LSU · LB · 2022 class
pick 176, round 5we said Generational (99)
DK
Darian Kinnard
· OT · 2022 class
pick 145, round 5we said Generational (99)

Five more

BP
Ben Powers
· IOL · 2019 class
pick 123, round 4we said Generational (99)
DJ
Dawand Jones
· OT · 2023 class
pick 111, round 4we said Generational (99)
CG
Cedric Gray
North Carolina · LB · 2024 class
pick 106, round 4we said Generational (99)
BS
Blake Sims
Alabama · QB · 2015 class
undraftedwe said Generational (96)
JH
Jeff Holland
Auburn · EDGE · 2018 class
undraftedwe said Generational (96)

Where the league saw more

Jameis Winston went pick 1; the score had him Third round.

JW
Jameis Winston
Florida State · QB · 2015 class
pick 1we said Third round (82)
KM
Kyler Murray
Oklahoma · QB · 2019 class
pick 1we said Fourth round (80)
TW
Travon Walker
Georgia · EDGE · 2022 class
pick 1we said Sixth round (75)
AR
Anthony Richardson
Florida · QB · 2023 class
pick 4we said Fifth round (77)
Daniel Jones
Duke · QB · 2019 class
pick 6we said Fourth round (79)

Five more

JA
Josh Allen
Wyoming · QB · 2018 class
pick 7we said Fifth round (77)
JH
Jaycee Horn
South Carolina · CB · 2021 class
pick 8we said Third round (78)
MP
Michael Penix Jr.
Washington · QB · 2024 class
pick 8we said Third round (82)
CC
Charles Cross
· OT · 2022 class
pick 9we said Fourth round (74)
TG
Todd Gurley
Georgia · RB · 2015 class
pick 10we said Seventh round (73)

Who was right, 2015-2021 classes

Inside the same draft round, the player with the higher score had the better NFL career in all 7 rounds.

Same round	Higher score half	Lower half	n
Round 1	91	84	160
Round 2	83	77	140
Round 3	65	64	190
Round 4	50	30	173
Round 5	49	20	167
Round 6	41	20	173
Round 7	15	9	156

When the score and the league disagreed by two rounds or more, neither side won: value over slot -7.2 when the score was higher, -6.5 when the league was.

The disagreements

When they disagreed by 2+ rounds	Players	Career percentile	Value over slot	Started 32+ games
Score had him higher	306	40	-7.2	21%
League had him higher	299	48	-6.5	37%

Numbers are the median career percentile: each player's NFL career against every pick since 2012, 0 to 100. Value over slot is that career against what his draft slot usually returns (our DVA), positive means he beat it.

The bands

The score each word needs at each position, with how often the score alone was right.

Show the bands for all 11 positions

Pos	Gen	Top 10	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7
QB	93 41%	89 38%	88 50%	85 46%	80 38%	78 40%	77 41%	75 45%	74 46%
RB	97 33%	95 36%	93 44%	89 57%	82 46%	78 48%	77 60%	75 64%	73 59%
WR	97 0%	93 36%	89 52%	84 52%	76 40%	75 45%	73 47%	72 50%	70 52%
TE	97 0%	93 7%	92 19%	89 36%	80 25%	79 34%	78 41%	76 43%	74 44%
OT	97 0%	92 28%	88 42%	78 31%	76 32%	72 26%	70 28%	69 31%	67 30%
IOL	97 0%	93 5%	90 16%	83 21%	76 18%	74 21%	72 22%	67 19%	66 19%
EDGE	94 23%	93 28%	90 46%	84 44%	80 48%	79 54%	77 54%	74 49%	72 52%
IDL	97 14%	96 29%	91 42%	87 49%	79 40%	77 47%	76 49%	74 54%	71 51%
LB	97 0%	92 24%	84 26%	75 16%	74 27%	72 28%	70 35%	66 33%	65 33%
CB	97 0%	96 27%	89 33%	85 47%	77 40%	76 46%	74 52%	69 46%	68 47%
S	97 0%	93 4%	92 33%	84 31%	77 32%	75 35%	73 44%	71 43%	67 40%

Score needed for each word, then the share of players at or above it who went that high. Greyed: the position had too few picks in that range, so it borrows the all-position band. Refit every May on the 2015-2026 classes.

What the score is made of: what the Model Score is. Every player with his score and where he went: college player rankings. The board that adds the scouts: big board.