Anthony Richardson

QB·

Indianapolis Colts·#5·6'4"·244 lb·3rd year·Florida

Tier 8Round 1, pick 4 in 2023

Updated November 6, 2026

78.2

Model Score

Resting on limited playing time

Trade value ·a 7th

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Anthony Richardson has 8 passing yards, 0 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions and 4 rushing yards in 1 game for the Indianapolis Colts this season through Week 8, 0.7 PPR points a game (updated November 6, 2026).

STM Take

A gifted athlete whose career has yet to translate.

The case for

4th overall draft pedigree plus the elite NFL Combine athletic measurables establishes high-pedigree QB foundation.
Florida SEC pedigree plus the dual-threat ability gives him real on-tape ceiling that the multi-year injury context has prevented from translating.

The worry

Multi-year injury absences (2023 AC joint, 2024 oblique, 2025 limited snaps) puts continued durability question on every 2026 projection.
2024 midseason benching for accuracy concerns flags real structural developmental risk for a 4th overall QB pick.

What to watch: Whether Richardson starts 12 or more games in 2026 plus crosses 60% completion rate, the threshold for confirming the developmental trajectory.

Full take and bio

4th overall draft pedigree plus the elite NFL Combine athletic measurables establishes Richardson in the high-pedigree QB class. The career trajectory of multi-year injury absences plus the 2024 midseason benching plus the limited 2025 snap share puts the developmental ceiling at significant risk. The 2026 question is whether Richardson returns to the starting role or whether the structural concerns close the original 4th overall expectation.

Richardson came out of Florida as the Indianapolis Colts' 1st-round pick (4th overall) in 2023, one of the most athletic QB prospects in NFL Combine history. He missed most of his rookie 2023 season with an AC joint injury. He was benched midseason in 2024 for accuracy concerns and his 2025 snap share was limited. The Colts exercised his 5th-year option in 2025 to keep him under team control.

Comps

The players whose size, testing and production looked most like his at the same point in their careers. The percent is how close.

Justin Fields ’2185%

Jaxson Dart ’2580%

Cam Newton ’1356%Vince Young ’0649%

Josh Allen ’1846%

Plays like: Tarvaris Jackson, Kordell Stewart, Josh Allen. Built like: Cam Newton, Jeff Driskel, Taylen Green. Coming out: one of one, no NFL player had a college career this close.

Of his 20 closest coming out: 3 stars, 3 starters, 9 backups, 5 didn't stick.