Week 1 · Sunday 16:25 ET

Packers at Vikings

Packers -1.5U.S. Bank Stadium · indoors
Total 46.5

The read

A dome and a division game. It opened Packers -1.5 and 44.5 and has moved three times since, most recently on 2026-09-05.

Who is on the field

Green Bay

Minnesota

The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.

Green Bay on its own page →Minnesota on its own page →

Who is not playing

Green Bay

Josh JacobsRBPersonalOUT

Luke MusgraveTENeckOUT

Jordon RileyDTAchillesOUT

Micah ParsonsDEKnee - ACLOUT

Tucker KraftTEKnee - ACLQUESTIONABLE

Warren BrinsonDTCalfQUESTIONABLE

Savion WilliamsWRAnkleIR

Thomas YassminTEIR

and 3 more

Minnesota

Jeshaun JonesWRSuspensionSUSPENDED

Caleb TiernanOTAnkleQUESTIONABLE

Jacob ThomasSAnkleQUESTIONABLE

Jakobe ThomasSBackQUESTIONABLE

Jermar JeffersonRBIR

Jamal AdamsLBQuadricepsIR

Marcus AllenCBIR

Michael JurgensCIR

and 1 more

Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.

Green Bay depth chart →Minnesota depth chart →

Keys to the game

Packers

Find Watson against zone

0.67 EPA a target vs zone, 5th of 104. Vikings play zone 81.7%, 1st.

Run at the Vikings zone eyes

Explosive run rate 12.0%, 8th. Vikings play man 18.3%, 32nd: lighter boxes, backs turned.

Vikings

Run at the Packers zone eyes

Explosive run rate 13.4%, 3rd. Packers play man 19.3%, 31st: lighter boxes, backs turned.

Has to

Change the picture on Watson

He is 0.45 against man. Vikings play it 18.3%, 32nd.

Not a key: the Vikings blitz (1st) on Love. He drops when blitzed like everyone, but from 2nd in the league.

Not a key: pace. Packers 26th and Vikings 30th in plays a game. Two of the slowest offenses in football, so the total leans under.

Each team in one line

PackersThrow it well3rdMove the ball4thHit explosive passes5thAlmost never play man2nd-lowest

VikingsThrow interceptionsworstGet sacked2nd-worstShut offenses down2ndBlitz1st

Full tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32

Green Bay

How they play

They almost never play man19.3%man coverage rate2nd-lowest

and they sit in Cover 333.8%Cover 3 rate3rd

and they almost never blitz20.8%blitz rate4th-lowest

and they run it more than almost anyone52.3%pass rate5th-lowest

Where they win and lose

They throw it well+0.23EPA a pass3rd

and they move the ball+0.11EPA a play4th

and they hit explosive passes11.2%explosive pass rate5th

and they never take it away1.1%interception rate5th-worst

Minnesota

How they play

They blitz46.1%blitz rate1st

and they almost never play man18.3%man coverage ratelowest

and they play two-high59.2%two-high rate1st

and they play slow55.5plays a game3rd-slowest

Where they win and lose

They throw interceptions3.8%interception rateworst

and they get sacked11.0%sacks taken2nd-worst

and they shut offenses down-0.12EPA allowed a play2nd

and they cannot throw it-0.19EPA a pass3rd-worst

Green Bay tendencies →Minnesota tendencies →

Angles that fire on this game

None of our frozen angles fire here. The slate is registered before the season and never added to mid-week, so an empty game stays empty.

Player trends that apply to this game

Justin JeffersonWR has 10 of his last 10 games at home as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards.

10 of 10, 100% in this spot · 2024-2025

24 of 40, 60% in every other spot

Josh JacobsRB has 9 of his last 10 games indoors with 50+ rushing yards.

9 of 10, 90% in this spot · 2023-2025

23 of 36, 64% in every other spot

Jauan JenningsWR has 7 of his last 10 games as an underdog with a receiving touchdown.

7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2025

1 of 9, 11% in every other spot

Jordan LoveQB has 7 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 250+ passing yards.

7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2023-2025

12 of 32, 38% in every other spot

Aaron JonesRB has 7 of his last 10 games at home as an underdog with 50+ rushing yards.

7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2023-2025

15 of 38, 40% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw

Green Bay

Josh JacobsRB

57% of the carries · 58 red-zone touches

Christian WatsonWR

18% of the targets · 7 red-zone touches

Vikings are one of the hardest defenses for WRs, 25th

Tucker KraftTE

17% of the targets · 12 red-zone touches

Vikings are one of the hardest defenses for TEs, 30th

Minnesota

Aaron JonesRB

46% of the carries · 19 red-zone touches

Justin JeffersonWR

26% of the targets · 19 red-zone touches

T.J. HockensonTE

14% of the targets · 12 red-zone touches

Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.

The last time they played

2025 wk 18

Packers at

Vikings3-16Vikings won, Vikings covered

2025 wk 12

Vikings at

Packers6-23Packers won, Packers covered

2024 wk 17

Packers at

Vikings25-27Vikings won, Vikings covered

2024 wk 4

Vikings at

Packers31-29Vikings won, Vikings covered

2023 wk 17

Packers at

Vikings33-10Packers won, Packers covered

Against the spread in these meetings: 2-3 to Packers. Closing numbers, not openers.

Every meeting, with the lines →

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