The forecast has gusts to 22 miles an hour. Not enough on its own to move a total, but it is real.
ATL at 
GBGB -6.5 / GB -2.55Sun 1:00 PM
CAR at 
CLECAR -2.5 / CAR -0.05Sun 1:00 PM
CIN at 
PITCIN -3.5 / PIT -1.89Sun 1:00 PM
HOU at 
INDHOU -1.5 / HOU -0.11Sun 1:00 PM
KC at 
MIAKC -10.5 / KC -4.89Sun 1:00 PM
LAC at 
BUFBUF -7 / BUF -6.25Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
JAXJAX -3 / JAX -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
DETDET -6.5 / DET -9.17Sun 1:00 PM
SEA at 
WASSEA -7.5 / SEA -2.75Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / NYG -4.42Sun 4:05 PM
ARI at 
SFSF -8.5 / SF -8.04Sun 4:05 PM
MIN at 
TBMIN -1.5 / TB -1.49Sun 4:25 PM
BAL at 
DALBAL -3.5 / BAL -0.91Sun 4:25 PM
LV at 
NONO -3 / NO -1.6Sun 8:20 PM
LA at 
DENLA -2.5 / DEN -1.93Mon 8:15 PM
PHI at 
CHIPHI -4.5 / CHI -0.75Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Bengals
Andrei Iosivas WRThumbOUT
Brian Parker II OTIR
Ja'Sir Taylor CBIR
B.J. Hill DTAchillesQ
Steelers
DeShon Elliott SIR
Jaylen Warren RBShoulderQ
Michael Pittman Jr. WRFootQ
Rico Dowdle RBToeQ
Gennings Dunker GKneeQ
2 more
Jamel Dean CBAnkleQ
Joey Porter Jr. CBQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-20.
The game
Bengals ahead means Brown carries it late; Steelers chasing means Rodgers throws, and Metcalf, Pittman and Freiermuth get the volume.
CIN has to
Find Higgins against man
0.60 EPA a target vs man, 12th of 106. Steelers play man 35.2%, 11th.
PIT has to
Go get the ball
Steelers take it away 2.2%, 10th. Bengals throw picks 2.5%, 7th-most.
The model's play
model likes them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, division game
Won 61.4% of 57 past bets like it. The worst case we can be 80% sure of is 52.9%, which clears the 52.4% break-even.
Weather at kickoff
Best price
PIT +3.5 -110 at DraftKings, 20 booksbest on the board CIN -3.5 +100 at LowVig.ag, 20 booksbest on the boardThe matchup
Bengals with the ballBengals: find Higgins against man.
Bengals20thSteelers10ththrow it as much as anyone 2ndlive in shotgun 2ndSteelers with the ballSteelers: throw on first and second down.
Steelers28thplay slow 5th-slowestalmost never blitz lowestrarely play two-high 2nd-lowestNot a key: the Steelers blitz (7th) on Burrow. He drops when blitzed like everyone, but from 1st in the league.
Ranks are 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side. top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Bengals with the ballWhat they like to do Taylor's Bengals throw it as much as anyone (2nd), live in shotgun (2nd) and never go no-huddle (3rd-lowest).
Where they win and lose They never break a long run (6th-worst).
What the Steelers defense brings A middle-of-the-league defense in how it plays and how it holds up.
What works against them Load the box: they do not break long runs (6th-worst).
Where the two meet Bengals: find Higgins against man. 0.60 EPA a target vs man, 12th of 106. Steelers play man 35.2%, 11th. Steelers: go get the ball. Steelers take it away 2.2%, 10th. Bengals throw picks 2.5%, 7th-most.
Steelers with the ballWhat they like to do McCarthy's Steelers play slow (5th-slowest).
Where they win and lose Middle of the league on both sides of the ledger.
What the Bengals defense brings They almost never blitz (lowest) and rarely play two-high (2nd-lowest) and they give it up (5th-worst).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Steelers: throw on first and second down. Steelers pass on early downs 54.4%, 8th. Bengals are 8th-worst in early-down EPA allowed.
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
The bets
What the model likes
4 more
The information
Player angles
Also posted, with no read either way: Jaylen Warren 58.5 rushing yards (over in 10 of his 33, 2024-2026), Samaje Perine 14.5 rushing yards (over in 12 of his 33, 2024-2026), Aaron Rodgers 0.5 rushing yards (over in 17 of his 35, 2024-2026), DK Metcalf 52.5 receiving yards (over in 16 of his 32, 2024-2026), Pat Freiermuth 35.5 receiving yards (over in 13 of his 34, 2024-2026), Mike Gesicki 24.5 receiving yards (over in 15 of his 29, 2024-2026), Chase Brown 21.5 receiving yards (over in 15 of his 35, 2024-2026), Ja'Marr Chase 6.5 receptions (over in 19 of his 35, 2024-2026), Tee Higgins 4.5 receptions (over in 15 of his 29, 2024-2026), Chase Brown 3.5 receptions (over in 14 of his 35, 2024-2026), Pat Freiermuth 3.5 receptions (over in 12 of his 34, 2024-2026) and Mike Gesicki 2.5 receptions (over in 16 of his 29, 2024-2026).
Player trends
4 more player trends
Game angles
First quarter: Bengals -0.5 and a total of 7.5.
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
Over 23.5 receiving yards for Jaylen Warren leads 23 lines. On 7, the player's history and the matchup agree.
Why 84
- The story Against it: the wind leans the passing game down; the Steelers play slow.
- The evidence 5 of 6 (83%) against a 30% baseline, 58% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup CIN allow 37% more than league to RBs, 2nd most.
- The price -110, which needs 52% to break even.
- Where it went 2 sources agree (his history, the matchup); a leg needs three, or two with the grid one-sided.
Why 80
- The story Against it: the wind leans the passing game down; the Steelers play slow.
- The evidence 4 of 6 (67%) against a 18% baseline, 41% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup CIN allow 18% more than league to RBs, 4th most.
- The price -125, which needs 56% to break even.
Why 69
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 9 of 12 (75%) against a 48% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup PIT allow 11% more than league to WRs, 8th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
See all 23 player lines
Why 68
- The story With it: the wind leans the passing game down; the Steelers play slow.
- The evidence 24 of 32 (75%) against a 52% baseline, 64% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup CIN allow 19% less than league to WRs, 32nd most.
- The price -130, which needs 57% to break even.
- Where it went Unproven and priced at minus money, with no 1-unit bet on the game to ride alongside.
Why 66
- The story Against it: the wind leans the passing game down; the Steelers play slow.
- The evidence 5 of 6 (83%) against a 45% baseline, 58% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup CIN allow 11% more than league to QBs, 7th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 66
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 19 of 29 (66%) against a 48% baseline, 54% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup PIT allow 11% more than league to WRs, 8th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 60
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 4 of 5 (80%) against a 45% baseline, 51% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup PIT allow 19% less than league to QBs, 27th most.
- The price -125, which needs 56% to break even.
Why 74
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 6 of 8 (75%) against a 36% baseline, 52% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup PIT allow 7% more than league to RBs, 11th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 72
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 15 of 20 (75%) against a 46% baseline, 61% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup PIT allow 5% more than league to RBs, 11th most.
- The price -120, which needs 55% to break even.
Why 68
- The story With it: the Bengals lead, so Brown carries it late; the weather leans the running game up.
- The evidence 11 of 18 (61%) against a 35% baseline, 46% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup PIT allow 4% more than league to RBs, 12th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 60
- The story Against it: the wind leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 15 of 27 (56%) against a 48% baseline, 43% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup PIT allow 12% more than league to QBs, 6th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Lines from Bovada as of 2026-09-25. A record is the player against the consensus closing line, every game since 2023, graded on the box score. Overs hit 46 to 48% league-wide; that is the bar, not 50. "Player and matchup agree" means he clears this number 60%+ in the situation this game puts him in AND the opponent allows 10%+ over league to his position. None of these has a graded record yet.
Player trends
Brown: 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.
Chase BrownRB as a favorite with 50+ rushing yardsWhy 72
- The story With it: the Bengals lead, so Brown carries it late; the weather leans the running game up.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 44% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
Tee HigginsWR in division games with 50+ receiving yardsWhy 68
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 62% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
See all 4 player trends
Ja'Marr ChaseWR on the road as a favorite with 50+ receiving yardsWhy 57
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 74% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
Joe BurrowQB on the road with 250+ passing yardsWhy 57
- The story Against it: the wind leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 60% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last time the Steelers were here, Sep 21, 2014: beat the Panthers by 18 as a 3-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 105 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Steelers.
The last time the Bengals were here, Dec 4, 2016: beat the Eagles by 18 as a 1-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 44 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Steelers.
See all 7 team trends
The last time the Bengals were here, Dec 11, 2016: beat the Browns by 13 as a 4-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 39 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Steelers.
Pittsburgh have covered at home in a division gameWhy 92
- The evidence 9 of 9 (100%) against a 51% baseline, 85% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 4 other signals on the same side.
- The gap Our number 5.4 points off the market on this side.
- Where it went Unproven and priced at minus money, with no 1-unit bet on the game to ride alongside.
Pittsburgh have covered in a division game after a lossWhy 92
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 52% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 4 other signals on the same side.
- The gap Our number 5.4 points off the market on this side.
- Where it went Unproven and priced at minus money, with no 1-unit bet on the game to ride alongside.
Pittsburgh have covered in a division gameWhy 75
- The evidence 13 of 18 (72%) against a 53% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 4 other signals on the same side.
- The gap Our number 5.4 points off the market on this side.
- Where it went Unproven and priced at minus money, with no 1-unit bet on the game to ride alongside.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. When two sections disagree, both stay.
History
Last meetings
- 2025 wk 11Bengals at SteelersSteelers won, Steelers covered12-34
- 2025 wk 7Steelers at BengalsBengals won, Bengals covered31-33
- 2024 wk 18Bengals at SteelersBengals won, Steelers covered19-17
Against the spread in these meetings: 1-4 to Bengals, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Bengals by 3.5 at a total of 42.5: Bengals 23, Steelers 19.5 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 42.5 is ordinary. Steelers play slow (28th in plays a game). The forecast has gusts to 22, which leans the passing game down. The ball goes to the ground, so Brown and Warren carry it more; the books raise rushing lines for weather (rushing overs 49% since 2019) and do not cut passing lines enough (passing overs 33% in wind), so the passing unders are the edge and the rushing overs are the story at a fair price.
What changed. Bengals: WR Andrei Iosivas out. Steelers: RB Jaylen Warren questionable; WR Michael Pittman Jr. questionable.
Model favorites
Three favorites from 36 signals: a side and two player lines. None sized at this price. Data as of: forecast Fri 12:00 PM ET; injuries Fri 11:49 AM ET; model Fri 12:04 PM ET.
A side
5 reasons for, 1 againstA player line
2 reasons for, 1 againstA player line
3 reasons forHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.