PIT at 
CLEPIT -3 / PIT -1.83Sun 9:30 AM
IND at 
WASIND -4.5 / WAS -0.51Sun 1:00 PM
ARI at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / ARI -0.22Sun 1:00 PM
DAL at 
HOUHOU -3 / HOU -3.33Sun 1:00 PM
GB at 
TBGB -1.5 / TB -1.3Sun 1:00 PM
JAX at 
CINCIN -3 / CIN -2.33Sun 1:00 PM
LA at 
PHILA -2.5 / PHI -2.67Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
BUFBUF -5.5 / BUF -6.23Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
CHICHI -3 / CHI -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
BALBAL -10.5 / BAL -10.07Sun 4:05 PM
MIA at 
MINMIN -10.5 / MIN -8.81Sun 4:25 PM
DEN at 
SFSF -3 / SF -3.29Sun 4:25 PM
KC at 
LVKC -6 / KC -4.69Sun 4:25 PM
LAC at 
SEASEA -6.5 / SEA -5.56Sun 8:20 PM
DET at 
CARDET -3 / DET -1.53Mon 8:15 PM
ATL at 
NONO -3.5 / NO -3.56Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Chargers
DJ Uiagalelei QBCoach's DecisionOUT
Alex Harkey GCoach's DecisionOUT
Isaiah World OTKneeOUT
Charlie Kolar TEForearmDOUBTFUL
David Njoku TELower LegIR
11 more
KeAndre Lambert-Smith WRHamstringIR
Branson Taylor GIR
Denzel Perryman LBIR
Scott Matlock FBIR
Trey Pipkins III OTKneeIR
Tyler Biadasz CKneeIR
Brenen Thompson WRQuadricepsQ
Dalvin Tomlinson DTHamstringQ
Donte Jackson CBConcussionQ
Elijah Molden CBHamstringQ
Kayode Awosika GLower LegQ
Seahawks
Jalen Milroe QBCoach's DecisionOUT
Montorie Foster Jr. WRCoach's DecisionOUT
Zach Charbonnet RBKnee - ACLOUT
Avery Smith CBCoach's DecisionOUT
Connor O'Toole LBCoach's DecisionOUT
4 more
Anthony Bradford GKneeIR
Brandon Pili DTConcussionQ
Julian Love SCalfQ
Ty Okada SHamstringQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-30.
The game
The model's play
Nothing on the official card for this game.
Best price
The books have not been polled for this game yet.
The setting
The forecast has gusts to 16 miles an hour. Not enough on its own to move a total, but it is real.
The matchup
Chargers with the ballSeahawks: squeeze them.
Seahawks6thnow 4thSeahawks9thnow 15thSeahawks4thSeahawks6thnow 1stplay fast 3rdplay two-high 3rdSeahawks with the ballSeahawks: run into light boxes.
Chargers2ndnow 20thrun it more than almost anyone 2nd-loweststay under center 2nd-lowestplay light boxes 1stalmost never blitz 5th-lowestBig ranks are the 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side; "now" is 2026 so far (2 to 3 games a team, too few to trust alone). top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Chargers with the ballWhat they like to do Harbaugh's Chargers play fast (3rd).
Where they win and lose They get sacked (5th-worst).
What the Seahawks defense brings They play two-high (3rd) and they get pressure (4th), shut offenses down (6th) and take the ball away (6th).
What works against them Bring pressure: they take sacks (5th-worst).
Where the two meet Seahawks: squeeze them. Seahawks are 6th-best in EPA allowed. Chargers are 8th-worst in EPA a play. Seahawks: go get the ball. Seahawks take it away 2.6%, 6th. Chargers throw picks 2.2%, 12th-most.
Seahawks with the ballWhat they like to do Macdonald's Seahawks run it more than almost anyone (2nd-lowest) and stay under center (2nd-lowest).
Where they win and lose They hit explosive passes (3rd) and complete everything (3rd) and they throw interceptions (4th-worst).
What the Chargers defense brings They play light boxes (1st), almost never blitz (5th-lowest) and almost never play man (6th-lowest) and they take the ball away (2nd), win early downs (6th) and get sacks (6th).
What works against them Make them throw: they give it away (4th-worst).
Where the two meet Seahawks: run into light boxes. Seahawks pass only 50.8%, 2nd-fewest. Chargers show a light box 34.1%, 1st-most. Chargers: go get the ball. Chargers take it away 3.2%, 2nd. Seahawks throw picks 3.0%, 5th-most.
Los Angeles
Seattle
The bets
What the model likes
Nothing on the official card for this game.
The information
All the evidence
Player angles
No posted player line has an angle firing on it this week.
Player trends
Game angles
3 more game angles
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
No player lines posted for this game yet.
Player trends
Smith-Njigba: 9 of his last 10 games at home with 75+ receiving yards.
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR at home with 75+ receiving yardsWhy 80
- The story Against it: the Seahawks lead big, so Darnold throws less.
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 46% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
How this is graded
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last team here, the Lions, Sep 3, 2000: beat the Saints by 4 at pick 'em.
Inside the luck line: 234 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Chargers.
The last time the Chargers were here, Dec 24, 2017: beat the Jets by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 253 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Chargers.
See all 7 team trends
The last time the Chargers were here, Dec 15, 2024: lost to the Buccaneers by 23 as a 3-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 127 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Chargers.
Los Angeles have gone under outdoorsOn totals of 37 to 48.5; this game is 42.5, inside that.
Why 60
- The evidence 14 of 19 (74%) against a 57% baseline, 59% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
Los Angeles have gone under as a road underdogOn totals of 36 to 50.5; this game is 42.5, inside that.
Why 58
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 59% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
Los Angeles have gone under as an underdog after a lossOn totals of 36 to 54; this game is 42.5, inside that.
Why 57
- The evidence 7 of 9 (78%) against a 60% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. A player and stat gets one verdict on this page: when reads disagree we weigh them, this season first, and name the side with the reasons against it.
History
Last meetings
- 2022 wk 7Seahawks at ChargersSeahawks won, Seahawks covered37-23
Against the spread in these meetings: 0-1 to Chargers, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Seahawks by 7 at a total of 42.5: Seahawks 24.8, Chargers 17.8 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 42.5 is ordinary. Chargers play fast (3rd in plays a game).
What changed. Chargers: TE Charlie Kolar doubtful. Seahawks: no starter on the report.
Model favorites
One favorite from 8 signals: the total. Data as of: forecast Wed 4:10 PM ET; injuries Wed 12:50 PM ET; model Sun 12:05 PM ET.
The total
1 reason for, 3 againstHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.