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Betting HQ · Week 4 · Sun 4:25 PM ET

ChiefsatRaiders

Betting HQ→Player angles→
KickoffSun 4:25 PMCBS
MarketKC -6the posted spread
Our numberKC -4.691.3 less than the market
Total47.5the posted total
Model playNone on this gamethe model has no edge here
Thu 8:15 PMPIT at CLEPIT -3 / PIT -1.83Sun 9:30 AMIND at WASIND -4.5 / WAS -0.51Sun 1:00 PMARI at NYGNYG -2.5 / ARI -0.22Sun 1:00 PMDAL at HOUHOU -3 / HOU -3.33Sun 1:00 PMGB at TBGB -1.5 / TB -1.3Sun 1:00 PMJAX at CINCIN -3 / CIN -2.33Sun 1:00 PMLA at PHILA -2.5 / PHI -2.67Sun 1:00 PMNE at BUFBUF -5.5 / BUF -6.23Sun 1:00 PMNYJ at CHICHI -3 / CHI -3.85Sun 1:00 PMTEN at BALBAL -10.5 / BAL -10.07Sun 4:05 PMMIA at MINMIN -10.5 / MIN -8.81Sun 4:25 PMDEN at SFSF -3 / SF -3.29Sun 4:25 PMKC at LVKC -6 / KC -4.69Sun 4:25 PMLAC at SEASEA -6.5 / SEA -5.56Sun 8:20 PMDET at CARDET -3 / DET -1.53Mon 8:15 PMATL at NONO -3.5 / NO -3.56

Depth charts and who's out

Who's out

Chiefs

1 more

Raiders

9 more

Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-30.

Kansas City depth chart→Las Vegas depth chart→

The game

The model's play

No play

Nothing on the official card for this game.

Best price

The books have not been polled for this game yet.

The setting

Allegiant Stadium · indoorsDivision gameOpened Chiefs -5.5Total opened 43.5

The matchup

Chiefs with the ball

Chiefs: find Rice against zone.

Chiefs offenseRaiders defense
11thnow 5thMoving the ballChiefs23rdnow 1st
14thnow 11thThrowing itChiefs30thnow 2nd
21stnow 8thProtection vs the rush28th
18thnow 9thHolding on to itChiefs26thnow 3rd
How they playnever go no-huddle 2nd-lowestpass on early downs 3rdplay zone 2ndsit in Cover 3 2nd
Raiders with the ball

Raiders: find Nailor against man.

Raiders offenseChiefs defense
32ndnow 22ndMoving the ballChiefs15thnow 10th
29thnow 15thThrowing itChiefs21stnow 18th
32ndnow 6thProtection vs the rushChiefs7th
30thnow 29thHolding on to itChiefs18thnow 8th
How they playplay slow 2nd-slowestthrow it as much as anyone 4thrarely play Cover 3 lowestblitz 3rd

Not a key: the Chiefs blitz (3rd) on Cousins. He drops when blitzed like everyone, but from 10th in the league.

Big ranks are the 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side; "now" is 2026 so far (2 to 3 games a team, too few to trust alone). top 8 bottom 8

The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Chiefs with the ball

What they like to do Reid's Chiefs never go no-huddle (2nd-lowest), pass on early downs (3rd) and live in shotgun (3rd).

Where they win and lose They run it well (6th).

What the Raiders defense brings They play zone (2nd), sit in cover 3 (2nd) and almost never blitz (6th-lowest) and they let everything get completed (3rd-worst) and cannot get pressure (5th-worst).

What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.

Where the two meet Chiefs: find Rice against zone. In 2025: 0.42 EPA a target vs zone on 55 targets, 26th of 106 among receivers with 50+ targets. Raiders played zone 79.6% in 2025, 2nd. Chiefs: throw on first and second down. Chiefs pass on early downs 57.1%, 3rd. Raiders are 15th-worst in early-down EPA allowed.

Raiders with the ball

What they like to do Kubliak's Raiders play slow (2nd-slowest) and throw it as much as anyone (4th).

Where they win and lose They cannot move the ball (worst), cannot run it (worst) and get sacked (worst).

What the Chiefs defense brings They rarely play cover 3 (lowest) and blitz (3rd).

What works against them Make them drive the length of the field (worst). Make them run it (worst).

Where the two meet Raiders: find Nailor against man. In 2025: 0.39 EPA a target vs man on 28 targets, 32nd of 106 among receivers with 50+ targets. Chiefs played man 35.9% in 2025, 10th. Chiefs: blitz them. Chiefs blitz 33.8%, 3rd. Raiders take sacks 11.1%, 1st-most.

Kansas City

How they play
They rarely play Cover 320.6%Cover 3 ratelowest
and they never go no-huddle2.5%no-huddle rate2nd-lowest
and they pass on early downs57.1%early-down pass rate3rd
and they live in shotgun80.7%shotgun rate3rd
Where they win and lose
They run it well+0.03EPA a run6th
and they get pressure33.0%pressure rate7th

Las Vegas

How they play
They play slow55.4plays a game2nd-slowest
and they play zone79.6%zone rate2nd
and they sit in Cover 338.0%Cover 3 rate2nd
and they throw it as much as anyone61.4%pass rate4th
Where they win and lose
They cannot move the ball-0.22EPA a playworst
and they cannot run it-0.26EPA a runworst
and they get sacked11.1%sacks takenworst
and they never break a long run8.5%explosive run rate2nd-worst
Kansas City tendencies→Las Vegas tendencies→

The bets

What the model likes

Nothing on the official card for this game.

The information

All the evidence

Over 47.5strong
2,692 angles agree, 1,175 would by chance · mostly season form and last game
+3.7past luck
Chiefs -4.5no more than luck
938 angles agree, 927 would by chance
+0.0past luck
Raiders +4.5no more than luck
723 angles agree, 868 would by chance
-0.5past luck
Under 47.5no more than luck
1,254 angles agree, 2,687 would by chance
-1.0past luck

Player angles

No posted player line has an angle firing on it this week.

Player trends

Kenneth Walker III RB KC 50+ rushing yardsConfidence 62
as a favorite · 14 of 28 everywhere else, 2025-2026
8 of 10last 10 as a favorite
Travis Kelce TE KC 50+ receiving yardsConfidence 50
in division games as a favorite · 27 of 46 everywhere else, 2024-2026
7 of 10last 10 in division games as a favorite
Patrick Mahomes QB KC 250+ passing yardsConfidence 50
on the road as a favorite · 22 of 38 everywhere else, 2024-2026
7 of 10last 10 on the road as a favorite

Game angles

Our read: Chiefs -4.5 and Over 47.5
The official card's pick where it has one; otherwise the side or total with more evidence past luck (the under favored when gusts at kickoff reach 25 mph). Every row below says if it agrees.
Raiders +4.5 a registered rule; a read, not on the official cardConfidence 60
model likes them by 1.0+, at home, worse QB, in a dome
60%150-99
Lean Chiefs -4.5with our readConfidence 54
Chiefs in the first four weeks indoors with the worse head coach by two tiers. Every game since 1999.
132-98covered, did not
Lean Raiders +4.5against our readConfidence 53
Chiefs after winning by 14 or more with the better quarterback by two tiers indoors. Every game since 1999.
93-123covered, did not
2 more game angles
Lean Chiefs -4.5with our readConfidence 56
Chiefs on a three-game winning streak against a team on a three-game cover streak with the better quarterback by two tiers. Every game since 1999.
58-36covered, did not
Lean Under 47.5against our readConfidence 66
Unders have hit 31 of 47 in week 4 in a division game; usually 51%, 2016-2026.
31 of 47in this spot

Game trends

Lean Over 47.5with our readConfidence 71
Raiders have gone over 7 of 9 at home in a division game; 17 of 45 everywhere else, 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2026.
7 of 9gone over

A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.

Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts

The player lines

No player lines posted for this game yet.

Player trends

III: 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.

8of 10
Kenneth Walker IIIRB as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards
2025-2026 · 14 of 28 elsewhere
With the storythe Chiefs lead, so Walker carries it late
Why 62
  1. The story With it: the Chiefs lead, so Walker carries it late.
  2. The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 50% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement No other signal on this side.
Share this card
62
score
How this is graded

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Player trends, every game →

Team trends

This week · Chiefs on a three-game winning streak against a team on a three-game cover streak with the better quarterback by two tiers
58-36
this game200020052010201520202025
58 covered36 did notevery game since 1999, 62%; since 2021 13-3

The last time the Chiefs were here, Jan 2, 2005: lost to the SD by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 94 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Chiefs.

This week · Chiefs in the first four weeks indoors with the worse head coach by two tiers
132-98
this game200020052010201520202025
132 covered98 did notevery game since 1999, 57%; since 2021 37-21

The last time the Chiefs were here, Sep 21, 2008: lost to the Falcons by 24 as a 6.5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 230 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Chiefs.

See all 5 team trends
This week · Chiefs after winning by 14 or more with the better quarterback by two tiers indoors
93-123
this game200020052010201520202025
93 covered123 did notevery game since 1999, 43%; since 2021 26-26

The last time the Chiefs were here, Sep 21, 2003: beat the Texans by 28 as a 7.5-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 216 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Raiders.

Searched this week: 2,010 spread situations and 133 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 3.98 on the spread and 3.54 on the total.

7of 9
Las Vegas have gone over at home in a division game
2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2026 · 17 of 45 elsewhere

On totals of 36 to 46.5; this game is 47.5, inside that.

Why 71
  1. The evidence 7 of 9 (78%) against a 38% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
  2. Agreement No other signal on this side.
71
score

Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.

Game trends, every game →

Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. A player and stat gets one verdict on this page: when reads disagree we weigh them, this season first, and name the side with the reasons against it.

History

Last meetings

  • 2025 wk 18Chiefs at RaidersRaiders won, Raiders covered12-14
  • 2025 wk 7Raiders at ChiefsChiefs won, Chiefs covered0-31
  • 2024 wk 13Raiders at ChiefsChiefs won, Raiders covered17-19

Against the spread in these meetings: 1-4 to Chiefs, on closing numbers.

Build this angle in the Angle Finder→All games this week→

The card

Betting Pass
The story

The number. The market has the Chiefs by 4.5 at a total of 47.5: Chiefs 26, Raiders 21.5 on paper.

How it plays. The total of 47.5 is ordinary. Raiders play slow (31st in plays a game). Indoors.

What changed. Chiefs: no starter on the report. Raiders: no starter on the report.

Model favorites

No favorite from 4 signals. The angles are reading, not picks. Data as of: forecast Wed 4:10 PM ET; injuries Wed 12:50 PM ET; model Sun 12:05 PM ET.

This season, by score: 70-79: 1-2 (-0.5u). 3 graded bets, every card, no cherry-picking.