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This weekThe board · the model's plays and the triggers, graded in publicSee the board
Betting HQ · Week 4 · Sun 1:00 PM ET

CowboysatTexans

Betting HQ→Player angles→
KickoffSun 1:00 PMFOX
MarketHOU -3the posted spread
Our numberHOU -3.33close to the market
Total48.5the posted total
Model playNone on this gamethe model has no edge here
Thu 8:15 PMPIT at CLEPIT -3 / PIT -1.83Sun 9:30 AMIND at WASIND -4.5 / WAS -0.51Sun 1:00 PMARI at NYGNYG -2.5 / ARI -0.22Sun 1:00 PMDAL at HOUHOU -3 / HOU -3.33Sun 1:00 PMGB at TBGB -1.5 / TB -1.3Sun 1:00 PMJAX at CINCIN -3 / CIN -2.33Sun 1:00 PMLA at PHILA -2.5 / PHI -2.67Sun 1:00 PMNE at BUFBUF -5.5 / BUF -6.23Sun 1:00 PMNYJ at CHICHI -3 / CHI -3.85Sun 1:00 PMTEN at BALBAL -10.5 / BAL -10.07Sun 4:05 PMMIA at MINMIN -10.5 / MIN -8.81Sun 4:25 PMDEN at SFSF -3 / SF -3.29Sun 4:25 PMKC at LVKC -6 / KC -4.69Sun 4:25 PMLAC at SEASEA -6.5 / SEA -5.56Sun 8:20 PMDET at CARDET -3 / DET -1.53Mon 8:15 PMATL at NONO -3.5 / NO -3.56

Depth charts and who's out

Who's out

Cowboys

10 more

Texans

11 more

Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-30.

Dallas depth chart→Houston depth chart→

The game

The model's play

No play

Nothing on the official card for this game.

Best price

The books have not been polled for this game yet.

The setting

Reliant Stadium · outdoorsTotal opened 47.5

The matchup

Cowboys with the ball

The Texans defense has the edge in holding on to it.

Cowboys offenseTexans defense
5thnow 3rdMoving the ball1stnow 19th
5thnow 4thThrowing it3rdnow 15th
6thnow 4thProtection vs the rushCowboys17th
15thnow 15thHolding on to itTexans3rdnow 25th
How they playplay fast 1stload the box lowestrarely play Cover 3 4th-lowest
Texans with the ball

Cowboys: send it at Stroud.

Texans offenseCowboys defense
21stnow 26thMoving the ballTexans31stnow 30th
15thnow 24thThrowing itTexans28thnow 29th
8thnow 19thProtection vs the rush9th
9thnow 1stHolding on to itTexans30thnow 25th
How they playplay fast 6thload the box 5th-lowest

Not a key: pace. Cowboys 1st and Texans 6th in plays a game. Both play fast, so the total leans over.

Big ranks are the 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side; "now" is 2026 so far (2 to 3 games a team, too few to trust alone). top 8 bottom 8

The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Cowboys with the ball

What they like to do Schottenheimer's Cowboys play fast (1st).

Where they win and lose They complete everything (4th), move the ball (5th) and throw it well (5th).

What the Texans defense brings They load the box (lowest) and rarely play cover 3 (4th-lowest) and they shut offenses down (1st), take the ball away (3rd) and make throws hard (3rd).

What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.

Where the two meet No clash on this side rises past the noise.

Texans with the ball

What they like to do Ryans's Texans play fast (6th).

Where they win and lose They cannot run it (3rd-worst) and never break a long run (3rd-worst).

What the Cowboys defense brings They load the box (5th-lowest) and they give it up (2nd-worst), never take it away (3rd-worst) and let everything get completed (5th-worst).

What works against them Make them run it (3rd-worst). Load the box: they do not break long runs (3rd-worst).

Where the two meet Cowboys: send it at Stroud. Blitz rate 28.5%, 9th. Stroud falls to 0.00 EPA when blitzed, 22nd of 36. Texans: find Boutte against zone. In 2025: 0.53 EPA a target vs zone on 46 targets, 9th of 106 among receivers with 50+ targets. Cowboys played zone 75.0% in 2025, 9th.

Dallas

How they play
They play fast64.9plays a game1st
and they load the box15.0%light box rate5th-lowest
Where they win and lose
They give it up+0.24EPA allowed a play2nd-worst
and they never take it away0.9%interception rate3rd-worst
and they complete everything64.1%completion rate4th
and they move the ball+0.10EPA a play5th

Houston

How they play
They load the box11.1%light box ratelowest
and they rarely play Cover 322.2%Cover 3 rate4th-lowest
and they play fast63.4plays a game6th
Where they win and lose
They shut offenses down-0.14EPA allowed a play1st
and they cannot run it-0.08EPA a run3rd-worst
and they never break a long run9.3%explosive run rate3rd-worst
and they take the ball away3.1%interception rate3rd
Dallas tendencies→Houston tendencies→

The bets

What the model likes

Nothing on the official card for this game.

The information

All the evidence

Texans -2.5strong
1,263 angles agree, 324 would by chance · mostly season form and last game
+5.0past luck
Under 48.5no more than luck
2,076 angles agree, 1,965 would by chance
+0.1past luck
Cowboys +2.5no more than luck
202 angles agree, 277 would by chance
-0.6past luck
Over 48.5no more than luck
440 angles agree, 823 would by chance
-0.8past luck

Player angles

No posted player line has an angle firing on it this week.

Player trends

Nico Collins WR HOU a receiving touchdownConfidence 76
at home as a favorite · 12 of 39 everywhere else, 2024-2025
7 of 10last 10 at home as a favorite
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL 6+ catchesConfidence 73
as an underdog · 21 of 38 everywhere else, 2024-2026
9 of 10last 10 as an underdog
Nico Collins WR HOU 50+ receiving yardsConfidence 72
as a favorite · 17 of 30 everywhere else, 2024-2025
9 of 10last 10 as a favorite
CeeDee Lamb WR DAL 50+ receiving yardsConfidence 62
as an underdog · 30 of 38 everywhere else, 2024-2026
10 of 10last 10 as an underdog
2 more player trends
Javonte Williams RB DAL 50+ rushing yardsConfidence 52
as an underdog · 14 of 29 everywhere else, 2024-2026
7 of 10last 10 as an underdog
George Pickens WR DAL 50+ receiving yardsConfidence 50
as an underdog · 18 of 32 everywhere else, 2024-2026
7 of 10last 10 as an underdog

Game angles

Our read: Texans -2.5 and Under 48.5
The official card's pick where it has one; otherwise the side or total with more evidence past luck (the under favored when gusts at kickoff reach 25 mph). Every row below says if it agrees.
Lean Texans -2.5with our readConfidence 57
Cowboys with a total of 48 or higher against a team that has missed three straight covers with an elite quarterback. Every game since 1999.
52-84covered, did not
Lean Texans -2.5with our readConfidence 52
Texans with a total of 48 or higher after three straight misses against the spread on a three-game losing streak. Every game since 1999.
67-48covered, did not
Lean Over 48.5against our readConfidence 65
Overs have hit 65 of 108 in week 4 outside the division; usually 48%, 2016-2026.
65 of 108in this spot
2 more game angles
Lean Texans -2.5with our readConfidence 58
Texans in a pick 'em after three straight misses against the spread with the worse quarterback by two tiers. Every game since 1999.
56-32covered, did not
Lean Cowboys +2.5against our readConfidence 58
Road teams have covered 45 of 73 in week 4 after the road team lost; usually 50%, 2016-2026.
45 of 73in this spot

Game trends

Lean Under 48.5with our readConfidence 68
Texans have gone under 8 of 9 as a home favorite after a loss; 26 of 44 everywhere else, 2023-2026, Ryans and Stroud.
8 of 9gone under
Lean Under 48.5on totals of 39.5 to 45.5, not this onewith our readConfidence 65
Texans have gone under 10 of 12 as a favorite after a loss; 24 of 41 everywhere else, 2023-2026, Ryans and Stroud.
10 of 12gone under
Lean Under 48.5with our readConfidence 57
Texans have gone under 10 of 13 at home after a loss; 24 of 40 everywhere else, 2023-2026, Ryans and Stroud.
10 of 13gone under

A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.

Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts

The player lines

No player lines posted for this game yet.

Player trends

Collins: 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.

9of 10
Nico CollinsWR as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards
2024-2025 · 17 of 30 elsewhere
With the storya 48.5 total is a throwing script; the Texans play fast
Why 72
  1. The story With it: a 48.5 total is a throwing script; the Texans play fast.
  2. The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 57% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
Share this card
72
score
10of 10
CeeDee LambWR as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards
2024-2026 · 30 of 38 elsewhere
With the storya 48.5 total is a throwing script; the Cowboys play fast
Why 62
  1. The story With it: a 48.5 total is a throwing script; the Cowboys play fast.
  2. The evidence 10 of 10 (100%) against a 79% baseline, 86% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
Share this card
62
score
How this is graded

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Player trends, every game →

Team trends

This week · Cowboys with a total of 48 or higher against a team that has missed three straight covers with an elite quarterback
52-84
this game200020052010201520202025
52 covered84 did notevery game since 1999, 38%; since 2021 10-22

The last time the Cowboys were here, Dec 9, 2007: beat the Lions by 1 as a 10-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 136 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Texans.

This week · Texans in a pick 'em after three straight misses against the spread with the worse quarterback by two tiers
56-32
this game200020052010201520202025
56 covered32 did notevery game since 1999, 64%; since 2021 18-13

The last time the Texans were here, Sep 29, 2013: lost to the Seahawks by 3 as a 1-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 88 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Texans.

See all 7 team trends
This week · Texans with a total of 48 or higher after three straight misses against the spread on a three-game losing streak
67-48
this game200020052010201520202025
67 covered48 did notevery game since 1999, 58%; since 2021 11-8

The last time the Texans were here, Dec 26, 2010: lost to the Broncos by 1 as a 2-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 115 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Texans.

Searched this week: 2,010 spread situations and 133 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 3.98 on the spread and 3.54 on the total.

8of 9
Houston have gone under as a home favorite after a loss
2023-2026, Ryans and Stroud · 26 of 44 elsewhere

On totals of 39.5 to 47.5; this game is 48.5, inside that.

Why 68
  1. The evidence 8 of 9 (89%) against a 59% baseline, 69% after shrinking for sample size.
  2. Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
68
score
10of 12
Houston have gone under as a favorite after a loss
2023-2026, Ryans and Stroud · 24 of 41 elsewhere

On totals of 39.5 to 45.5; this game is 48.5, outside that, so it does not speak to this total.

Why 65
  1. The evidence 10 of 12 (83%) against a 58% baseline, 66% after shrinking for sample size.
  2. Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
65
score
10of 13
Houston have gone under at home after a loss
2023-2026, Ryans and Stroud · 24 of 40 elsewhere

On totals of 39.5 to 46.5; this game is 48.5, inside that.

Why 57
  1. The evidence 10 of 13 (77%) against a 60% baseline, 59% after shrinking for sample size.
  2. Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
57
score

Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.

Game trends, every game →

Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. A player and stat gets one verdict on this page: when reads disagree we weigh them, this season first, and name the side with the reasons against it.

History

Last meetings

  • 2024 wk 11Texans at CowboysTexans won, Texans covered34-10
  • 2022 wk 14Texans at CowboysCowboys won, Texans covered23-27

Against the spread in these meetings: 0-2 to Cowboys, on closing numbers.

Build this angle in the Angle Finder→All games this week→

The card

Betting Pass
The story

The number. The market has the Texans by 2.5 at a total of 48.5: Texans 25.5, Cowboys 23 on paper.

How it plays. The total of 48.5 is high. Cowboys play fast (1st in plays a game). Texans play fast (6th in plays a game).

What changed. Cowboys: LCB Cobie Durant doubtful. Texans: WR Nico Collins questionable.

Model favorites

No favorite from 4 signals. The angles are reading, not picks. Data as of: forecast Wed 4:10 PM ET; injuries Wed 12:50 PM ET; model Sun 12:05 PM ET.

This season, by score: 70-79: 1-2 (-0.5u). 3 graded bets, every card, no cherry-picking.