PIT at 
CLEPIT -3 / PIT -1.83Sun 9:30 AM
IND at 
WASIND -4.5 / WAS -0.51Sun 1:00 PM
ARI at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / ARI -0.22Sun 1:00 PM
DAL at 
HOUHOU -3 / HOU -3.33Sun 1:00 PM
GB at 
TBGB -1.5 / TB -1.3Sun 1:00 PM
JAX at 
CINCIN -3 / CIN -2.33Sun 1:00 PM
LA at 
PHILA -2.5 / PHI -2.67Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
BUFBUF -5.5 / BUF -6.23Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
CHICHI -3 / CHI -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
BALBAL -10.5 / BAL -10.07Sun 4:05 PM
MIA at 
MINMIN -10.5 / MIN -8.81Sun 4:25 PM
DEN at 
SFSF -3 / SF -3.29Sun 4:25 PM
KC at 
LVKC -6 / KC -4.69Sun 4:25 PM
LAC at 
SEASEA -6.5 / SEA -5.56Sun 8:20 PM
DET at 
CARDET -3 / DET -1.53Mon 8:15 PM
ATL at 
NONO -3.5 / NO -3.56Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Dolphins
Brady Cook QBCoach's DecisionOUT
Chukwuebuka Godrick OTCoach's DecisionOUT
DJ Campbell GCoach's DecisionOUT
Darrell Baker Jr. CBOUT
Marcellas Dial Jr. CBCoach's DecisionOUT
10 more
Storm Duck CBKneeOUT
Cole Turner TEIR
De'Von Achane RBKnee - ACLIR
Kenneth Grant DTLegIR
Kyle Louis LBKneeIR
Ronnie Harrison Jr. LBHamstringIR
Trey Moore LBAnkleIR
Caleb Douglas WRAnkleQ
Jaylen Wright RBFootQ
Robert Beal Jr. DEHamstringQ
Vikings
Caleb Tiernan OTCoach's DecisionOUT
Charles Demmings CBHamstringOUT
Elijah Williams DECoach's DecisionOUT
Jakobe Thomas SCoach's DecisionOUT
Tavierre Thomas SCoach's DecisionOUT
11 more
Zemaiah Vaughn CBCoach's DecisionOUT
Jeshaun Jones WRSuspensionSUSP
Ben Yurosek TEIR
Jordan Mason RBThumbIR
Josh Oliver TEBicepsIR
Jamal Adams LBQuadricepsIR
Michael Jurgens CIR
Nick Samac CKneeIR
Tyler Batty LBKnee - ACLIR
Justin Jefferson WRAnkleQ
Brett Thorson PHamstringQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-30.
The game
The model's play
Nothing on the official card for this game.
Best price
The books have not been polled for this game yet.
The setting
The matchup
Dolphins with the ballDolphins: run at the Vikings zone eyes.
Vikings2ndnow 7thVikings7thnow 1stVikings6thVikings23rdnow 12thplay slow slowestblitz 1stalmost never play man lowestVikings with the ballDolphins: blitz them.
Dolphins22ndnow 5thplay slow 3rd-slowestplay light boxes 3rdblitz 5thNot a key: the Dolphins blitz (5th) on Murray. He drops when blitzed like everyone, but from 8th in the league.
Not a key: pace. Dolphins 32nd and Vikings 30th in plays a game. Two of the slowest offenses in football, so the total leans under.
Big ranks are the 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side; "now" is 2026 so far (2 to 3 games a team, too few to trust alone). top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Dolphins with the ballWhat they like to do Hafley's Dolphins play slow (slowest).
Where they win and lose They break explosive runs (5th) and they throw interceptions (2nd-worst).
What the Vikings defense brings They blitz (1st), almost never play man (lowest) and play two-high (1st) and they shut offenses down (2nd) and get sacks (3rd).
What works against them Make them throw: they give it away (2nd-worst).
Where the two meet Dolphins: run at the Vikings zone eyes. Explosive run rate 13.0%, 5th. Vikings play man 18.3%, 32nd: lighter boxes, backs turned. Vikings: squeeze them. Vikings are 2nd-best in EPA allowed. Dolphins are 11th-worst in EPA a play.
Vikings with the ballWhat they like to do O'Connell's Vikings play slow (3rd-slowest).
Where they win and lose They throw interceptions (worst), get sacked (2nd-worst) and cannot throw it (3rd-worst).
What the Dolphins defense brings They play light boxes (3rd), blitz (5th) and play two-high (5th) and they let everything get completed (2nd-worst), lose early downs (5th-worst) and cannot get pressure (6th-worst).
What works against them Make them throw: they give it away (worst). Bring pressure: they take sacks (2nd-worst).
Where the two meet Dolphins: blitz them. Dolphins blitz 32.8%, 5th. Vikings take sacks 11.0%, 2nd-most. Vikings: run at the Dolphins zone eyes. Explosive run rate 13.4%, 3rd. Dolphins play man 27.4%, 21st: lighter boxes, backs turned.
Miami
Minnesota
The bets
What the model likes
Nothing on the official card for this game.
The information
All the evidence
Player angles
No posted player line has an angle firing on it this week.
Player trends
Game angles
6 more game angles
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
No player lines posted for this game yet.
Player trends
Jefferson: 10 of his last 10 games at home as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.
Justin JeffersonWR at home as a favorite with 50+ receiving yardsWhy 77
- The story Against it: the Vikings lead big, so Murray throws less; a 38.5 total is a low-scoring script.
- The evidence 10 of 10 (100%) against a 60% baseline, 86% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
How this is graded
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last time the Dolphins were here, Oct 28, 2007: lost to the Giants by 3 as a 10-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 96 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Dolphins.
The last time the Dolphins were here, Sep 15, 2019: lost to the Patriots by 43 as a 18-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 56 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Dolphins.
See all 7 team trends
The last time the Dolphins were here, Jan 9, 2000: beat the Seahawks by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 180 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Vikings.
Inside the luck line: 60 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.
Inside the luck line: 65 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the over.
Miami have gone over as a road underdog when our model likes themOn totals of 39.5 to 52; this game is 38.5, inside that.
On the card, 1uWhy 74
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 46% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- Where it went On the card, 1u.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. A player and stat gets one verdict on this page: when reads disagree we weigh them, this season first, and name the side with the reasons against it.
History
Last meetings
- 2022 wk 6Vikings at DolphinsVikings won, Vikings covered24-16
Against the spread in these meetings: 0-1 to Dolphins, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Vikings by 10.5 at a total of 38.5: Vikings 24.5, Dolphins 14 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 38.5 is low. Dolphins play slow (32nd in plays a game). Vikings play slow (30th in plays a game). Indoors.
What changed. Dolphins: RB Jaylen Wright questionable; WR Caleb Douglas questionable. Vikings: WR Justin Jefferson questionable.
Model favorites
One favorite from 6 signals: the total. Data as of: forecast Wed 4:10 PM ET; injuries Wed 12:50 PM ET; model Sun 12:05 PM ET.
The total
2 reasons forHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.