Justin Jefferson
Minnesota VikingsModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Comps
STM Take
Jefferson's drop from STTM #5 tier 1 in 2024 to #41 tier 6 in 2025 is the steepest WR fall on the board, driven entirely by J.J. McCarthy's tier-8 QB rank in his year-two debut. The 2022 OPOY and two first-team All-Pro selections sit on his resume; the 2025 rank reflects a QB ecosystem in crisis. Tier 6 is not a Justin Jefferson floor; it is a J.J. McCarthy floor.
Jefferson was born in St. Rose, Louisiana, attended Destrehan High, and won the 2019 CFP national title at LSU as the co-NCAA receptions leader. Minnesota took him 22nd overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. He won 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, has been first-team All-Pro twice (2022, 2024), and has four Pro Bowls. He also led the NFL in receptions and receiving yards in 2022.
Strengths
- 2022 NFL OPOY + two first-team All-Pros + four Pro Bowls + 2022 NFL receptions and yards titles; the resume is locked in the all-time elite tier.
- Recent game log still shows the talent: 18.4 PPR Week 18, 14.5 PPR Week 16 in a broken QB ecosystem.
Concerns
- 36-rank slide is by far the steepest in the entire WR top-50; the QB-driven story can mask but not erase the data point.
- Three consecutive sub-5 PPR weeks (Wk 13-15) show the floor when McCarthy struggles.
What to watch: Whether J.J. McCarthy's year-three jump (or a system change) restores Jefferson to tier-1; the talent has not moved.