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J.J. McCarthy

QB·New York Giants·#18·6'3"·219 lb·2nd year·Michigan
Tier 1Round 1, pick 10 in 2024
Updated November 6, 2026
78.5
Model Score
Same as last year
Trade value ·a late 2nd

J.J. McCarthy has 495 passing yards, 1 touchdown pass, 1 interception and 29 rushing yards in 3 games for the New York Giants this season through Week 8, 8.2 PPR points a game (updated November 6, 2026).

Model Score by season

Holding at 78.5.

Resting on limited playing time
708078.520252026

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

A late-arriving starter whose weeks swing from big to nothing.

The case for

  • 27-1 as a college starter, the highest career winning percentage in FBS history, with a 2023 national title.
  • Recent game logs show two 20-plus PPR weeks across his 10-game sample, including a 23.5 against good defenses.

The worry

  • 57.6 percent completion percentage and 72.6 passer rating on 243 NFL attempts are bottom-tier for any first-round QB's debut sample.
  • 11 TDs against 12 INTs as a year-two starter is a worse ratio than every rookie on the current board.

What to watch: Whether a full healthy 17-game year-three produces a tier-5-or-better finish; the Vikings' system around him is built for it.

Full take and bio

McCarthy's effective rookie season closed at STTM #45 tier 8 across 10 games, the same kind of late-arriving starter profile Penix carries one division over. The recent game log includes legitimate 20-plus PPR weeks alongside near-zero floor games, so the variance band is wide. The college pedigree (national title, 27-1 record) is the long-bet case; the early NFL stats need a full season to mean anything.

McCarthy was born in Evanston, Illinois, attended Nazareth Academy and then IMG Academy for his senior year, and committed to Michigan over rival Ohio State. He won the 2023 College Football Playoff national title, was named 2023 Big Ten Quarterback of the Year, and finished 27-1 as a starter, the highest career winning percentage in FBS history. Minnesota took him tenth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. He missed his entire rookie season to injury and took over as the starter in his second year.

Comps

The players whose size, testing and production looked most like his at the same point in their careers. The percent is how close.

Plays like: Mark Sanchez, Kerry Collins, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Built like: Drew Stanton, Clayton Tune, Kyle Boller. Coming out: Kevin Hogan.

Of his 20 closest coming out: 5 stars, 3 starters, 7 backups, 5 didn't stick.

J.J. McCarthy Props This Weekat PHI Sun Nov 8

MarketLineOverUnder
Passing yards208.5-112 DraftKings-112 DraftKings
Passing TDs1.5+188 FanDuel-209 DraftKings
Completions18.5+105 BetRivers-115 Fanatics
Pass attempts30.5-105 BetMGM-105 Fanatics
Interceptions0.5-125 DraftKings-102 DraftKings
Anytime TD+450 BetMGM

Best price across 9 books as of Thu Nov 5. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room

Play J.J.'s numbers on Underdog · partner link

J.J. McCarthy Injury StatusNot listed

J.J. McCarthy is not on the injury report as of Nov 6. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.

This season · 3 games

Pass Yds495
Pass TD1
INT1
Comp %70.5%
Rush Yds29
Rush TD0
Fantasy PPG8.2
Total EPA7.5
EPA / dropback0.245
Time to throw2.85s
Avg air yards12.3
Aggressiveness19.0%
Longest comp (air)57 yd

8.2 fantasy points a game, 25 PPR on the season. Every game on the Game Log, every season on Career. Advanced numbers are EPA and Next Gen Stats.

Contract2026 cap

2026 Cap Hit
$896K
APY
$5.5M/yr
Guaranteed at Signing
$21.9M
Years on Deal
4
Signed
2024
Est. Value
$29.5M/yr
underpaid by $24.0M/yr

Every year of the deal, the dead money and what a cut or trade saves on the Contract tab.

Fantasy outlookWeek 9

Our rest-of-season board has J.J. McCarthy at QB32 (the public consensus says QB25); the model has 37 PPR points left for him this season; this week he visits PHI.

Price a trade for him on the fantasy trade calculator, or see the whole board on the Fantasy hub.

Draft & College

Round 1, pick 10 to the Minnesota Vikings in 2024, out of Michigan (Big Ten). He went earlier than consensus.

Taken#10
Consensus board18th
Our college model#147 QB

In college, 2021-2023, 40 games: 5,929 pass yds, 48 TD, 4 INT, 64.7% completions.

Recruited

Class of 2021 · Quarterback · High school: IMG Academy, La Grange Park, IL

Recruiting sites
★★★★★
No. 25 in the nation. Composite 0.9866, the recruiting sites' average
Committed to
Michigan

His full list of offers is not on our record yet; offers for the 2021 class are still being added.

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