ATL at 
GBGB -6.5 / GB -2.55Sun 1:00 PM
CAR at 
CLECAR -2.5 / CAR -0.05Sun 1:00 PM
CIN at 
PITCIN -3.5 / PIT -1.89Sun 1:00 PM
HOU at 
INDHOU -1.5 / HOU -0.11Sun 1:00 PM
KC at 
MIAKC -10.5 / KC -4.89Sun 1:00 PM
LAC at 
BUFBUF -7 / BUF -6.25Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
JAXJAX -3 / JAX -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
DETDET -6.5 / DET -9.17Sun 1:00 PM
SEA at 
WASSEA -7.5 / SEA -2.75Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / NYG -4.42Sun 4:05 PM
ARI at 
SFSF -8.5 / SF -8.04Sun 4:05 PM
MIN at 
TBMIN -1.5 / TB -1.49Sun 4:25 PM
BAL at 
DALBAL -3.5 / BAL -0.91Sun 4:25 PM
LV at 
NONO -3 / NO -1.6Sun 8:20 PM
LA at 
DENLA -2.5 / DEN -1.93Mon 8:15 PM
PHI at 
CHIPHI -4.5 / CHI -0.75Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Eagles
Dallas Goedert TEKnee - MCLDOUBTFUL
Eli Stowers TEHamstringIR
Landon Dickerson GKneeIR
DeVonta Smith WRHamstringQ
Saquon Barkley RBShoulderQ
5 more
Tank Bigsby RBAbdomenQ
Will Shipley RBFootQ
Andrew Mukuba SKneeQ
Jalen Carter DTWristQ
Jonathan Greenard LBPectoralQ
Bears
Noah Sewell LBAchillesOUT
Shemar Turner DTKnee - ACLOUT
Caleb Williams QBHamstringDOUBTFUL
Anthony Johnson Jr. SIR
Kyle Monangai RBKneeQ
3 more
Tyson Bagent QBConcussionQ
Cairo Santos PKHipQ
Tyrique Stevenson Sr. CBHamstringQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-20.
The game
Eagles ahead means Barkley carries it late; Bears chasing means Bagent throws, and Odunze, Burden and Loveland get the volume.
PHI has to
Find Goedert against man
0.55 EPA a target vs man, 17th of 106. Bears play man 41.7%, 3rd.
CHI has to
Send it at Hurts, and get there
Hurts falls to 0.01 blitzed, but Bears are only 22nd at turning the blitz into pressure.
The model's play
Our total 45 vs 43.5 posted (gusts 14 mph, rain 0.00 in at kickoff). Posted Sep 22 on that forecast; the forecast for kickoff is now gusts of 8 mph.
Won 53.5% of 1,975 past bets like it. The worst case we can be 80% sure of is 52.1%, which is still short of the 52.4% break-even.
Best price
CHI +4.5 +100 at DraftKings, 20 booksCHI +5.5 -110at Hard Rock Bet PHI -4.5 -105 at LowVig.ag, 20 booksbest on the boardThe matchup
Eagles with the ballEagles: find Goedert against man.
Eagles26thgo no-huddle 4thlive in shotgun 6thplay man 3rdrarely play Cover 3 6th-lowestBears with the ballBears: take the shots downfield.
Eagles2ndBears16thplay fast 2ndstay under center 5th-lowestalmost never blitz 2nd-lowestplay man 2ndRanks are 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side. top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Eagles with the ballWhat they like to do Sirianni's Eagles go no-huddle (4th) and live in shotgun (6th).
Where they win and lose They protect the football (5th).
What the Bears defense brings They play man (3rd) and rarely play cover 3 (6th-lowest) and they take the ball away (1st).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Eagles: find Goedert against man. 0.55 EPA a target vs man, 17th of 106. Bears play man 41.7%, 3rd. Bears: send it at Hurts, and get there. Hurts falls to 0.01 blitzed, but Bears are only 22nd at turning the blitz into pressure.
Bears with the ballWhat they like to do Johnson's Bears play fast (2nd) and stay under center (5th-lowest).
Where they win and lose They protect the football (1st), break explosive runs (2nd) and protect the quarterback (3rd).
What the Eagles defense brings They almost never blitz (2nd-lowest), play man (2nd) and rarely play cover 3 (3rd-lowest) and they make throws hard (2nd).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Bears: take the shots downfield. Bears hit explosive passes 10.0%, 7th. Eagles play two-high just 35.9%, 5th-fewest. Bears: run into light boxes. Bears pass only 54.7%, 9th-fewest. Eagles show a light box 27.0%, 4th-most.
Philadelphia
Chicago
The bets
What the model likes
The information
Player angles
4 more player angles
Also posted, with no read either way: Jalen Hurts 218.5 passing yards (over in 15 of his 33, 2024-2026), D'Andre Swift 67.5 rushing yards (over in 13 of his 35, 2024-2026), DeVonta Smith 71.5 receiving yards (over in 12 of his 32, 2024-2026), Dontayvion Wicks 41.5 receiving yards (over in 9 of his 32, 2024-2026), Luther Burden III 31.5 receiving yards (over in 11 of his 17, 2025-2026), Rome Odunze 25.5 receiving yards (over in 23 of his 31, 2024-2026), Makai Lemon 22.5 receiving yards and Makai Lemon 2.5 receptions.
Player trends
Game angles
First quarter: Eagles -0.5 and a total of 7.5.
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
Under 3.5 receptions for Colston Loveland leads 20 lines. On 4, the player's history and the matchup agree.
Why 74
- The story Against it: the Bears chase, so Bagent throws; the Bears play fast.
- The evidence 7 of 9 (78%) against a 44% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup PHI allow 27% less than league to TEs, 31st most.
- The price -165, which needs 62% to break even.
Why 72
- The story Against it: the Eagles play slow.
- The evidence 23 of 33 (70%) against a 48% baseline, 59% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup CHI allow 26% more than league to QBs, 3rd most.
- The price -110, which needs 52% to break even.
Why 70
- The story Against it: the Bears chase, so Bagent throws; the Bears play fast.
- The evidence 4 of 5 (80%) against a 46% baseline, 51% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup PHI allow 46% less than league to TEs, 32nd most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
See all 20 player lines
Why 56
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 7 of 10 (70%) against a 54% baseline, 50% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup CHI allow 10% more than league to RBs, 10th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 78
- The story Against it: the Bears chase, so Bagent throws; the Bears play fast.
- The evidence 6 of 6 (100%) against a 44% baseline, 79% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup PHI allow 3% less than league to WRs, 17th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 74
- The story Against it: the Bears chase, so Bagent throws; the Bears play fast.
- The evidence 7 of 8 (88%) against a 44% baseline, 66% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup PHI allow 7% less than league to WRs, 24th most.
- The price -135, which needs 57% to break even.
Why 74
- The story Against it: the Bears chase, so Bagent throws; the Bears play fast.
- The evidence 6 of 7 (86%) against a 33% baseline, 62% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup PHI allow 7% less than league to WRs, 24th most.
- The price -135, which needs 57% to break even.
Why 72
- The story Against it: the Bears chase, so Bagent throws; the Bears play fast.
- The evidence 19 of 24 (79%) against a 52% baseline, 67% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup PHI allow 7% less than league to WRs, 24th most.
- The price -180, which needs 64% to break even.
Why 67
- The story With it: the Eagles play slow.
- The evidence 20 of 26 (77%) against a 50% baseline, 65% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup CHI allow 2% less than league to WRs, 19th most.
- The price -165, which needs 62% to break even.
Why 64
- The story With it: the Eagles play slow.
- The evidence 10 of 12 (83%) against a 59% baseline, 66% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup CHI allow 8% less than league to RBs, 23rd most.
- The price -150, which needs 60% to break even.
Why 56
- The story With it: the Eagles play slow.
- The evidence 21 of 34 (62%) against a 52% baseline, 51% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup CHI allow 5% less than league to RBs, 18th most.
- The price -110, which needs 52% to break even.
Why 50
- The story With it: the Eagles play slow.
- The evidence 7 of 10 (70%) against a 50% baseline, 50% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup CHI allow 2% less than league to WRs, 19th most.
- The price -105, which needs 51% to break even.
Lines from Bovada as of 2026-09-25. A record is the player against the consensus closing line, every game since 2023, graded on the box score. Overs hit 46 to 48% league-wide; that is the bar, not 50. "Player and matchup agree" means he clears this number 60%+ in the situation this game puts him in AND the opponent allows 10%+ over league to his position. None of these has a graded record yet.
Player trends
Hurts: 8 of his last 10 games outdoors as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdowns.
Jalen HurtsQB outdoors as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdownsWhy 77
- The story Against it: the Eagles play slow.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 17% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
D'Andre SwiftRB in prime time outdoors with 50+ rushing yardsWhy 72
- The story With it: a backup quarterback starts, so they run more; the Bears play fast.
- The evidence 10 of 10 (100%) against a 51% baseline, 86% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
See all 3 player trends
Saquon BarkleyRB in prime time with 50+ rushing yardsWhy 71
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 10 of 10 (100%) against a 71% baseline, 86% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last time the Eagles were here, Sep 30, 2007: lost to the Giants by 13 as a 2-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 83 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Bears.
The last time the Eagles were here, Jan 6, 2002: beat the Buccaneers by 4 as a 3-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 49 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Bears.
See all 7 team trends
Inside the luck line: 88 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.
Inside the luck line: 38 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.
Chicago have gone under in prime timeOn totals of 43.5 to 49.5; this game is 41.5, inside that.
Why 66
- The evidence 10 of 13 (77%) against a 45% baseline, 59% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
Chicago have covered at home after a lossWhy 60
- The evidence 7 of 10 (70%) against a 51% baseline, 50% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The gap Our number 5.2 points off the market on this side.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. When two sections disagree, both stay.
History
Last meetings
- 2025 wk 13Bears at EaglesBears won, Bears covered24-15
- 2022 wk 15Eagles at BearsEagles won, Bears covered25-20
Against the spread in these meetings: 2-0 to Bears, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Eagles by 4.5 at a total of 41.5: Eagles 23, Bears 18.5 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 41.5 is ordinary. Eagles play slow (25th in plays a game). Bears play fast (2nd in plays a game).
What changed. Eagles: RB Saquon Barkley questionable; WR DeVonta Smith questionable; TE Dallas Goedert doubtful. Bears: QB Caleb Williams doubtful.
Model favorites
One favorite from 34 signals: the total. Data as of: forecast Fri 12:00 PM ET; injuries Fri 11:49 AM ET; model Fri 12:04 PM ET.
The total
1 reason for, 1 againstHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.