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Betting HQ · Week 4 · Sun 1:00 PM ET

JaguarsatBengals

Betting HQ→Player angles→
KickoffSun 1:00 PMCBS
MarketCIN -3the posted spread
Our numberCIN -2.33close to the market
Total51.5the posted total
Model playNone on this gamethe model has no edge here
Thu 8:15 PMPIT at CLEPIT -3 / PIT -1.83Sun 9:30 AMIND at WASIND -4.5 / WAS -0.51Sun 1:00 PMARI at NYGNYG -2.5 / ARI -0.22Sun 1:00 PMDAL at HOUHOU -3 / HOU -3.33Sun 1:00 PMGB at TBGB -1.5 / TB -1.3Sun 1:00 PMJAX at CINCIN -3 / CIN -2.33Sun 1:00 PMLA at PHILA -2.5 / PHI -2.67Sun 1:00 PMNE at BUFBUF -5.5 / BUF -6.23Sun 1:00 PMNYJ at CHICHI -3 / CHI -3.85Sun 1:00 PMTEN at BALBAL -10.5 / BAL -10.07Sun 4:05 PMMIA at MINMIN -10.5 / MIN -8.81Sun 4:25 PMDEN at SFSF -3 / SF -3.29Sun 4:25 PMKC at LVKC -6 / KC -4.69Sun 4:25 PMLAC at SEASEA -6.5 / SEA -5.56Sun 8:20 PMDET at CARDET -3 / DET -1.53Mon 8:15 PMATL at NONO -3.5 / NO -3.56

Depth charts and who's out

Who's out

Jaguars

  • Nobody listed.

Bengals

1 more
  • B.J. Hill DTAchillesQ

Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-30.

Jacksonville depth chart→Cincinnati depth chart→

The game

The model's play

No play

Nothing on the official card for this game.

Best price

The books have not been polled for this game yet.

The setting

Paycor Stadium · outdoors

The matchup

Jaguars with the ball

Jaguars: take the shots downfield.

Jaguars offenseBengals defense
14thnow 8thMoving the ballJaguars28thnow 2nd
11thnow 7thThrowing it15thnow 14th
17thnow 11thProtection vs the rush18th
19thnow 22ndHolding on to itBengals11thnow 25th
How they playalmost never blitz lowestrarely play two-high 2nd-lowest
Bengals with the ball

Jaguars: go get the ball.

Bengals offenseJaguars defense
19thnow 19thMoving the ballJaguars3rdnow 15th
23rdnow 23rdThrowing itJaguars12thnow 28th
9thnow 26thProtection vs the rushBengals26th
26thnow 11thHolding on to itJaguars4thnow 6th
How they playthrow it as much as anyone 2ndlive in shotgun 2nd

Big ranks are the 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side; "now" is 2026 so far (2 to 3 games a team, too few to trust alone). top 8 bottom 8

The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Jaguars with the ball

What they like to do Coen's Jaguars are middle of the league in how they play.

Where they win and lose Middle of the league on both sides of the ledger.

What the Bengals defense brings They almost never blitz (lowest) and rarely play two-high (2nd-lowest) and they give it up (5th-worst).

What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.

Where the two meet Jaguars: take the shots downfield. Jaguars hit explosive passes 9.4%, 8th. Bengals play two-high just 32.8%, 2nd-fewest.

Bengals with the ball

What they like to do Taylor's Bengals throw it as much as anyone (2nd), live in shotgun (2nd) and never go no-huddle (3rd-lowest).

Where they win and lose They never break a long run (6th-worst).

What the Jaguars defense brings They shut offenses down (3rd) and take the ball away (4th) and they cannot get a sack (3rd-worst).

What works against them Load the box: they do not break long runs (6th-worst).

Where the two meet Jaguars: go get the ball. Jaguars take it away 3.1%, 4th. Bengals throw picks 2.5%, 7th-most. Jaguars: squeeze them. Jaguars are 3rd-best in EPA allowed. Bengals are 14th-worst in EPA a play.

Jacksonville

How they play
They almost never play man23.8%man coverage rate7th-lowest
and they play fast63.1plays a game8th
Where they win and lose
They shut offenses down-0.11EPA allowed a play3rd
and they cannot get a sack4.5%sack rate3rd-worst
and they take the ball away3.1%interception rate4th

Cincinnati

How they play
They almost never blitz17.7%blitz ratelowest
and they throw it as much as anyone64.5%pass rate2nd
and they live in shotgun82.0%shotgun rate2nd
and they rarely play two-high32.8%two-high rate2nd-lowest
Where they win and lose
They give it up+0.18EPA allowed a play5th-worst
and they never break a long run9.9%explosive run rate6th-worst
and they never hit a deep one6.9%explosive pass rate7th-worst
and they throw interceptions2.5%interception rate7th-worst
Jacksonville tendencies→Cincinnati tendencies→

The bets

What the model likes

Nothing on the official card for this game.

The information

All the evidence

Over 51.5some
1,827 angles agree, 894 would by chance · mostly last game and season form
+2.5past luck
Bengals -2.5no more than luck
740 angles agree, 699 would by chance
+0.1past luck
Jaguars +2.5no more than luck
365 angles agree, 521 would by chance
-0.7past luck
Under 51.5no more than luck
1,111 angles agree, 2,262 would by chance
-1.1past luck

Player angles

No posted player line has an angle firing on it this week.

Player trends

Ja'Marr Chase WR CIN 6+ catchesConfidence 68
at home · 19 of 32 everywhere else, 2024-2026
9 of 10last 10 at home
Chase Brown RB CIN 50+ rushing yardsConfidence 68
as a favorite · 8 of 18 everywhere else, 2024-2026
8 of 10last 10 as a favorite
Tee Higgins WR CIN a receiving touchdownConfidence 62
at home · 13 of 30 everywhere else, 2024-2026
7 of 10last 10 at home
Tee Higgins WR CIN 50+ receiving yardsConfidence 59
as a favorite · 9 of 16 everywhere else, 2024-2026
8 of 10last 10 as a favorite
2 more player trends
Ja'Marr Chase WR CIN 50+ receiving yardsConfidence 54
at home · 23 of 32 everywhere else, 2024-2026
9 of 10last 10 at home
Joe Burrow QB CIN 250+ passing yardsConfidence 50
at home as a favorite · 19 of 32 everywhere else, 2024-2026
7 of 10last 10 at home as a favorite

Game angles

Our read: Bengals -2.5 and Over 51.5
The official card's pick where it has one; otherwise the side or total with more evidence past luck (the under favored when gusts at kickoff reach 25 mph). Every row below says if it agrees.
Lean Under 51.5against our readConfidence 53
The total in a pick 'em with a top receiver out. Every game since 1999.
66-90over, under
Lean Bengals -2.5with our readConfidence 52
Jaguars in a pick 'em with a total of 48 or higher after winning by 14 or more. Every game since 1999.
53-73covered, did not
Lean Over 51.5with our readConfidence 65
Overs have hit 65 of 108 in week 4 outside the division; usually 48%, 2016-2026.
65 of 108in this spot
2 more game angles
Lean Jaguars +2.5against our readConfidence 51
Jaguars with a total of 48 or higher against a team without its top receiver. Every game since 1999.
61-46covered, did not
Lean Jaguars +2.5against our readConfidence 54
Bengals with an elite quarterback without their top receiver with the worse head coach by two tiers. Every game since 1999.
12-22covered, did not

Game trends

Lean Over 51.5with our readConfidence 78
Bengals have gone over 8 of 9 as a home favorite after a loss; 46 of 92 everywhere else, 2020-2026, Taylor and Burrow.
8 of 9gone over
Lean Over 51.5with our readConfidence 64
Bengals have gone over 14 of 20 at home after a loss; 40 of 81 everywhere else, 2020-2026, Taylor and Burrow.
14 of 20gone over
Lean Bengals -2.5with our readConfidence 62
Bengals have covered 10 of 12 as a favorite with a total of 48 or higher; 48 of 88 everywhere else, 2020-2026, Taylor and Burrow.
10 of 12covered

A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.

Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts

The player lines

No player lines posted for this game yet.

Player trends

Chase: 9 of his last 10 games at home with 6+ catches.

9of 10
Ja'Marr ChaseWR at home with 6+ catches
2024-2026 · 19 of 32 elsewhere
Why 68
  1. The story No view on this one.
  2. The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 59% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
Share this card
68
score
8of 10
Chase BrownRB as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards
2024-2026 · 8 of 18 elsewhere
Why 68
  1. The story No view on this one.
  2. The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 44% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement No other signal on this side.
Share this card
68
score
See all 3 player trends
8of 10
Tee HigginsWR as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards
2024-2026 · 9 of 16 elsewhere
With the storya 51.5 total is a throwing script; Young is out, so the targets move
Why 59
  1. The story With it: a 51.5 total is a throwing script; Young is out, so the targets move.
  2. The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 56% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
Share this card
59
score

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Player trends, every game →

Team trends

This week · Jaguars in a pick 'em with a total of 48 or higher after winning by 14 or more
53-73
this game200020052010201520202025
53 covered73 did notevery game since 1999, 42%; since 2021 19-26

The last time the Jaguars were here, Nov 14, 2010: beat the Texans by 7 as a 1-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 126 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Bengals.

This week · Jaguars with a total of 48 or higher against a team without its top receiver
61-46
this game200020052010201520202025
61 covered46 did notevery game since 1999, 57%; since 2021 23-15

The last team here, the Packers, Dec 20, 1999: lost to the Vikings by 4 as a 4.5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 107 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Jaguars.

See all 8 team trends
This week · Bengals with an elite quarterback without their top receiver with the worse head coach by two tiers
12-22
this game200020052010201520202025
12 covered22 did notevery game since 1999, 35%; since 2021 4-4

The last team here, the Panthers, Sep 29, 2002: lost to the Packers by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 34 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Jaguars.

This week · The total in a pick 'em with a top receiver out
66-90
this game200020052010201520202025
66 went over90 stayed underevery game since 1999, 42%; since 2021 20-23

Inside the luck line: 156 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.

Searched this week: 2,010 spread situations and 133 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 3.98 on the spread and 3.54 on the total.

8of 9
Cincinnati have gone over as a home favorite after a loss
2020-2026, Taylor and Burrow · 46 of 92 elsewhere

On totals of 37 to 50; this game is 51.5, inside that.

Why 78
  1. The evidence 8 of 9 (89%) against a 50% baseline, 69% after shrinking for sample size.
  2. Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
78
score
14of 20
Cincinnati have gone over at home after a loss
2020-2026, Taylor and Burrow · 40 of 81 elsewhere

On totals of 40.5 to 50.5; this game is 51.5, inside that.

Why 64
  1. The evidence 14 of 20 (70%) against a 49% baseline, 56% after shrinking for sample size.
  2. Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
64
score
10of 12
Cincinnati have covered as a favorite with a total of 48 or higher
2020-2026, Taylor and Burrow · 48 of 88 elsewhere
Why 62
  1. The evidence 10 of 12 (83%) against a 55% baseline, 66% after shrinking for sample size.
  2. Agreement No other signal on this side.
62
score

Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.

Game trends, every game →

Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. A player and stat gets one verdict on this page: when reads disagree we weigh them, this season first, and name the side with the reasons against it.

History

Last meetings

  • 2025 wk 2Jaguars at BengalsBengals won, Bengals covered27-31
  • 2023 wk 13Bengals at JaguarsBengals won, Bengals covered34-31
  • 2021 wk 4Jaguars at BengalsBengals won, Jaguars covered21-24

Against the spread in these meetings: 3-1 to Bengals, on closing numbers.

Build this angle in the Angle Finder→All games this week→

The card

Betting Pass
The story

The number. The market has the Bengals by 2.5 at a total of 51.5: Bengals 27, Jaguars 24.5 on paper.

How it plays. The total of 51.5 is high. Jaguars play fast (8th in plays a game).

What changed. Jaguars: no starter on the report. Bengals: WR Colbie Young out; NB Jalen Davis ir.

Model favorites

No favorite from 7 signals. The angles are reading, not picks. Data as of: forecast Wed 4:10 PM ET; injuries Wed 12:50 PM ET; model Sun 12:05 PM ET.

This season, by score: 70-79: 1-2 (-0.5u). 3 graded bets, every card, no cherry-picking.