Brian Thomas Jr.

Jacksonville Jaguars·#7UNDERPAID

Pos WRHt 6'2"Wt 205 lbExp 1 yrCollege LSU

WR rankings →

Model Score

79.5 MODEL

2024

83.4

2025

79.5

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 14 games

4842nd

Rec

70734th

Rec Yds

264th

Rec TD

9136th

Targets

50.537th

Yds/Gm

9.946th

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

1.14445th

EPA / target

2.6 yd76th

Avg separation

5.5 yd

Avg cushion

0.458th

YAC over exp

52.2%

Catch %

STM Take

The 1,282-yard rookie season established Thomas as a true No. 1 WR, the tier 1 (#15) STTM finish was the proof. The empty 2025 dataset means we cannot project the trajectory cleanly without the season-by-season comparison Jacksonville's offense produces, but the underlying skill set (sub-4.4 at 6'3", 17 senior touchdowns at LSU) has no question marks. The 2026 ceiling remains top-12 WR if healthy.

Thomas came out of LSU as Jacksonville's 1st-round pick (23rd overall) in 2024 after a junior season that produced 1,177 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns playing opposite Malik Nabers. At 6'3" and 209 pounds with sub-4.4 speed, he was widely projected as a downfield X-receiver. His 2024 rookie season was the largest 1st-round WR rookie production line of the class: 1,282 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns on 87 catches, finishing tier 1 #15 in STTM. The empty 2025 ranking and game log in our dataset reflects either injury or a sample lost to data processing.

Strengths

2024 rookie production (1,282 yards, 10 TDs, 87 catches) is the highest-yardage rookie 1st-round WR debut of the class. Tier 1 #15 finish confirms WR1 territory by his second year.
Sub-4.4 forty at 6'3"/209 plus 17 senior touchdowns at LSU is one of the strongest physical profiles in the 2024 WR class.

Concerns

The empty 2025 STTM ranking in our dataset cannot confirm the production held up across a full second season. Without that data the trajectory is incomplete.
Trevor Lawrence's career arc has not yet stabilized into a top-10 QB sample. Thomas's 2026 ceiling depends on Lawrence's development as a passer.

What to watch: Whether his 2026 target share clears 8 per game across the first six weeks, the threshold every tier 1 WR2 has historically needed to hit.