Brian Thomas Jr.
Jacksonville JaguarsBrian Thomas Jr. has 10 catches, 117 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in 7 games for the Jacksonville Jaguars this season through Week 8, 4.8 PPR points a game (updated November 4, 2026).
Model Score by season
Up 2.1 from last season.
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
STM Take
A true number one receiver with an elite physical profile.
The case for
- 2024 rookie production (1,282 yards, 10 TDs, 87 catches) is the highest-yardage rookie 1st-round WR debut of the class. Tier 1 #15 finish confirms WR1 territory by his second year.
- Sub-4.4 forty at 6'3"/209 plus 17 senior touchdowns at LSU is one of the strongest physical profiles in the 2024 WR class.
The worry
- The empty 2025 STTM ranking in our dataset cannot confirm the production held up across a full second season. Without that data the trajectory is incomplete.
- Trevor Lawrence's career arc has not yet stabilized into a top-10 QB sample. Thomas's 2026 ceiling depends on Lawrence's development as a passer.
What to watch: Whether his 2026 target share clears 8 per game across the first six weeks, the threshold every tier 1 WR2 has historically needed to hit.
Full take and bio
The 1,282-yard rookie season established Thomas as a true No. 1 WR, the tier 1 (#15) STTM finish was the proof. The empty 2025 dataset means we cannot project the trajectory cleanly without the season-by-season comparison Jacksonville's offense produces, but the underlying skill set (sub-4.4 at 6'3", 17 senior touchdowns at LSU) has no question marks. The 2026 ceiling remains top-12 WR if healthy.
Thomas came out of LSU as Jacksonville's 1st-round pick (23rd overall) in 2024 after a junior season that produced 1,177 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns playing opposite Malik Nabers. At 6'3" and 209 pounds with sub-4.4 speed, he was widely projected as a downfield X-receiver. His 2024 rookie season was the largest 1st-round WR rookie production line of the class: 1,282 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns on 87 catches, finishing tier 1 #15 in STTM. The empty 2025 ranking and game log in our dataset reflects either injury or a sample lost to data processing.
Comps
The players whose size, testing and production looked most like his at the same point in their careers. The percent is how close.
Mack Hollins ’1982%
Nelson Agholor ’1680%
DeVante Parker ’1873%Brian Robiskie ’1073%Devin Thomas ’0972%Plays like: Rashod Bateman, Louis Murphy, Stephen Hill. Built like: Kevin White, Robert Meachem, Mike Sims-Walker. Coming out: Terrace Marshall Jr., Robert Meachem, Brian Robiskie.
Of his 20 closest coming out: 3 stars, 6 starters, 8 backups, 3 didn't stick.
Brian Thomas Jr. Props This Weekat BAL Thu Nov 5
| Market | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | +450 Fanatics |
Best price across 9 books as of Mon Nov 2. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room
Play Brian's numbers on Underdog · partner link
Brian Thomas Jr. Injury StatusNot listed
Brian Thomas Jr. is not on the injury report as of Nov 4. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.
This season · 7 games
4.8 fantasy points a game, 34 PPR on the season. Every game on the Game Log, every season on Career. Advanced numbers are EPA and Next Gen Stats.
Contract2026 cap
Every year of the deal, the dead money and what a cut or trade saves on the Contract tab.
Fantasy outlookWeek 9
Our rest-of-season board has Brian Thomas Jr. at WR68 (the public consensus says WR71); the model has 75 PPR points left for him this season; this week he visits BAL.
Price a trade for him on the fantasy trade calculator, or see the whole board on the Fantasy hub.
Draft & College
Round 1, pick 23 to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2024, out of LSU (SEC). He went about where consensus had him.
In college, 2021-2023, 37 games: 126 rec, 1,913 yds, 23 TD, 15.2 yds/rec.
Recruited
Class of 2021 · Receiver · High school: Walker, LA
LSUHis full list of offers is not on our record yet; offers for the 2021 class are still being added.