The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.
Eagles with the ball
Eagles offenseJaguars defense
24th
Passing
7th
21st
Run game
6th
12th
Pass rush
8th
17th
Third down
5th
27th
Big plays
8th
22nd
Turnovers
3rd
14th
Red zone
2nd
Jaguars with the ball
Jaguars offenseEagles defense
10th
Passing
17th
4th
Run game
22nd
30th
Pass rush
32nd
4th
Third down
16th
11th
Big plays
7th
19th
Turnovers
22nd
2nd
Red zone
18th
Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 4 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.
The tale of the tape
This is a mismatch, and it runs one way. The Jaguars win every meeting when Philadelphia has the ball, and the one that decides it is through the air: an Eagles passing game that ranks 24th against a Jaguars pass defense that ranks 7th, with a takeaway defense 3rd at picking it off. Since 2015, teams with an edge this big won 60% of the time but covered only 48%, because the line already knows. The Eagles' answer is their top receiver, who draws 26% of their targets and was 7th of 105 receivers with 50 targets against zone last year, when Jacksonville played zone on about three of every four snaps. If Philadelphia falls behind and has to throw from shotgun, which it does the 3rd-most in the league, that is where the game gets away.
Jacksonville's other big edge is on the ground: a run game 4th against an Eagles run defense that ranks 22nd, and 25th once you account for the run games it has faced. Bhayshul Tuten has 60 carries. What blunts it is an Eagles defense 7th at stopping big plays, so expect Jacksonville to grind, not break long ones. For the bet, the history and the angles disagree on the side. The Jaguars have covered 11 of 15 as a home favorite, against 23 of 40 everywhere else, which points to Jaguars -6.5. Our picks on this game are on the card, behind the Betting Pass.
Team totals
Eagles scored 17 against a team total of 17: push. the spread and total, split; ours 19.7, 2.7 over.
Jaguars scored 19 against a team total of 24.5: under. the spread and total, split; ours 24.3, 0.2 under.
Team trends
Each team's own record in a spot like this one, against its record everywhere else. A reason to lean, not a bet.
Eagles have covered 7 of 7 as a road underdog outdoorscovered
37 of 79 everywhere else, 2021-2026, Sirianni and Hurts · points to Eagles +7.5
7 of 7in this spot
Eagles have gone under 6 of 7 as a road underdog outdoorshit, 36 points
37 of 82 everywhere else, 2021-2026, Sirianni and Hurts · points to Under 41.5
6 of 7in this spot
Eagles have gone under 9 of 13 as a road underdoghit, 36 points
34 of 76 everywhere else, 2021-2026, Sirianni and Hurts · points to Under 41.5
9 of 13in this spot
1 more team trends
Eagles have covered 1 of the last 2 meetings
Last time, 2024 week 9: Jaguars 23, Eagles 28, Jaguars covered.
1-1against the spread
Team angles
Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. More of them than luck would give point at Eagles +7.5 and Over 41.5.
Eagles +7.5strongcovered
2,571 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 757.
3.4xluck's count
Over 41.5somemissed, 36 points
2,907 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 1,133.
2.6xluck's count
Player trends
Each player's own record in a spot like this one, his best stat first.
Saquon BarkleyRB
Saquon Barkley has 9 of his last 10 games on the road as an underdog with 50+ rushing yards. 35 of 48 everywhere else, 2023-2025.
9 of 10last 10
Player angles
No player line on this game was archived with a read.
Model plays
Graded: Small plays went 1-3; Watching went 1-2.
Parker Washington under 4.5 catches (100.0)Small play, 0.7ulost, 6 catches
The market (projection): the measured number has Parker Washington at three point seven catches with the under at an edge of eleven percent; The script (game read): the Jaguars run the clock meaning fewer pass attempts to divide; His history (player trend): cleared this line in only ten of thirty-one career games and once in four this year. Proof A: PR-013 family, spot receptions under Stamped Fri 12:40 PM ET.
Over 42.5Small play, 0.25ulost -0.25u
Script play: The market (totals model): the number lands at forty-three point six against forty-one point five; A rule (angle card): the over on these inputs went fifty-nine percent in the twenty-twenty to twenty-five replay; The market (tuesday total): the Tuesday total was forty-four with the opener at forty-three for an edge at line now of two point five. Proof B: rule k Tuesday total Stamped Tue 9:34 AM ET.
Trevor Lawrence under 229.5 passing yards (-112.0 at DraftKings)Small play, 0.5ulost, 331 passing yards
Claude's best: The market (projection): the measured number has Trevor Lawrence at one hundred ninety-three yards with the under at an edge of nineteen percent; The script (game read): the Jaguars run the clock in this script keeping pass attempts low; The script (qb): Lawrence has gone two forty-five, one eighty-nine, one eighty-two, and two twenty-seven this season averaging just over two hundred ten. Proof C: early-week under Stamped Thu 8:36 AM ET.
Jalen Hurts under 26.5 rushing yards (-113.0 at DraftKings)Small play, 0.25uwon, 2 rushing yards
Early-week under: The market: our projection 18.4 rushing yards, first posted at 26.5 (27.5 now); the under by 12% past the price. Proof C: early-week under Stamped Thu 8:36 AM ET.
6 more plays
PHI +6.5Watching, not a betwon +0u
A rule: 67% one idea (beating or missing the spread); other ideas: injuries and QB, overs and unders lately, schedule, size, unit matchup, weather, winning or losing. Proof C: the all-angles evidence score Stamped Tue 9:34 AM ET.
Brenton Strange under 3.5 catches (-135 at Bovada)Watching, not a betlost, 7 catches
His history: Under in 19 of 30 games, 2024-2026. Proof C: a prop-board spot outside the registered markets Stamped Thu 12:45 PM ET.
JAX -7.5 (-102.0)Watching, not a betlost -0u
The Jaguars have covered 11 of 15 as a home favorite. Proof: no registered rule behind it: the bet score and the read only Stamped Fri 8:39 AM ET.
Under 42.5withdrawn
Pulled Oct 6 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Dontayvion Wicks under 47.5 receiving yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 10 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
Where it turned: the passing game. Expect the Eagles to find nowhere to throw.Sunday: Eagles threw for 220 yards and 1 touchdown.
Eagles with the ball
