Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars·#16

Pos QBHt 6'6"Wt 220 lbExp 5 yrCollege Clemson

Updated October 10, 2026

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Model Score

86.7 MODEL

2021

79.0

2022

91.7

2023

82.2

2024

81.1

2025

87.2

2026

86.7

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

Lawrence jumped from STTM #29 tier 8 in 2024 to #12 tier 3 in 2025 alongside a second division title, the recovery the consensus had been waiting on since the 2022 Pro Bowl year. The career still reads as one elite season inside a stretch of #28-or-worse finishes. Tier-3 in 2025 is a real correction, but it does not yet validate the first-overall-pick label.

Lawrence was born in Knoxville, became a five-star recruit at Cartersville High in Georgia, and won the 2019 College Football Playoff national title as a Clemson freshman, picking up Archie Griffin Award honors. Jacksonville selected him first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. He earned a Pro Bowl nod in 2022 after leading the Jaguars to their first division title since 2017, then captured a second AFC South title in 2025.

Strengths

17-rank jump from 2024 to 2025, with the AFC South title as the team-level confirmation.
Career 1,442 rushing yards and 23 TDs add a meaningful fantasy floor that pure pocket passers in this range lack.

Concerns

Career STTM line outside 2022 reads #45, #28, #29; the four-year context is mostly tier 7 or 8 play.
62.8 percent career completion and 98 TDs against 58 INTs are the weakest efficiency numbers in the top fifteen.

What to watch: Whether the 2025 jump compounds. A second tier-3-or-better year would finally make the No. 1-overall expectation feel earned.

Comps

Overall match

size, testing and production, same career stage

Philip Rivers ’0875%Tom Brady ’0472%Eli Manning ’0971%

Famous comp

names you know, same point in their careers (around year 6)

Jim Kelly ’9082%Jordan Love ’2577%

Plays like

on-field production only

Tom Brady ’1086%Philip Rivers ’0885%Aaron Rodgers ’2184%

Built likeTHIN DATA

measurables only, his size

Matt Leinart90%Charlie Whitehurst90%Eli Manning89%

Coming out

pros whose college production, size and testing looked like his

Blake Bortles ’1466%Matt Leinart ’0663%Geno Smith ’1357%

Names you know nearby: Teddy Bridgewater ’14 58%.

Of his 20 closest coming out: 5 stars, 3 starters, 7 backups, 5 didn't stick.

Trevor Lawrence Props This Weekvs PHI Sun Oct 11

Market	Line	Over	Under
Passing yards	225.5	-110 Fanatics	-114 FanDuel
Passing TDs	1.5	+100 BetRivers	-108 DraftKings
Completions	19.5	-107 BetRivers	+106 DraftKings
Pass attempts	30.5	-103 DraftKings	-123 DraftKings
Interceptions	0.5	-114 BetRivers	+100 BetMGM
Rushing yards	15.5	-109 DraftKings	-115 DraftKings
Carries	3.5	-108 DraftKings	-118 DraftKings
Longest rush	8.5	-123 DraftKings	-105 DraftKings
Anytime TD		+325 BetMGM