Trevor Lawrence
Jacksonville Jaguars·#16Model Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 17 games
Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats
STM Take
Lawrence jumped from STTM #29 tier 8 in 2024 to #12 tier 3 in 2025 alongside a second division title, the recovery the consensus had been waiting on since the 2022 Pro Bowl year. The career still reads as one elite season inside a stretch of #28-or-worse finishes. Tier-3 in 2025 is a real correction, but it does not yet validate the first-overall-pick label.
Lawrence was born in Knoxville, became a five-star recruit at Cartersville High in Georgia, and won the 2019 College Football Playoff national title as a Clemson freshman, picking up Archie Griffin Award honors. Jacksonville selected him first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. He earned a Pro Bowl nod in 2022 after leading the Jaguars to their first division title since 2017, then captured a second AFC South title in 2025.
Strengths
- 17-rank jump from 2024 to 2025, with the AFC South title as the team-level confirmation.
- Career 1,442 rushing yards and 23 TDs add a meaningful fantasy floor that pure pocket passers in this range lack.
Concerns
- Career STTM line outside 2022 reads #45, #28, #29; the four-year context is mostly tier 7 or 8 play.
- 62.8 percent career completion and 98 TDs against 58 INTs are the weakest efficiency numbers in the top fifteen.
What to watch: Whether the 2025 jump compounds. A second tier-3-or-better year would finally make the No. 1-overall expectation feel earned.
Fantasy Outlook
Trevor Lawrence scored 342 PPR points, 20.1 per game this season. Compare him against any QB and track weekly rankings in our fantasy tools.