Trevor Lawrence

QB·

Jacksonville Jaguars·#16·6'6"·220 lb·5th year·Clemson

Tier 3Round 1, pick 1 in 2021

Updated November 5, 2026

87.7

Model Score

Up from 87.2 last year

Trade value ·two 1sts

Player comps Be the Jaguars GM →

Trevor Lawrence has 1,690 passing yards, 17 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions and 78 rushing yards in 7 games for the Jacksonville Jaguars this season through Week 8, 19.3 PPR points a game (updated November 5, 2026).

Model Score by season

Up 0.5 from last season.

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

A bounced-back franchise quarterback still proving the label.

The case for

17-rank jump from 2024 to 2025, with the AFC South title as the team-level confirmation.
Career 1,442 rushing yards and 23 TDs add a meaningful fantasy floor that pure pocket passers in this range lack.

The worry

Career STTM line outside 2022 reads #45, #28, #29; the four-year context is mostly tier 7 or 8 play.
62.8 percent career completion and 98 TDs against 58 INTs are the weakest efficiency numbers in the top fifteen.

What to watch: Whether the 2025 jump compounds. A second tier-3-or-better year would finally make the No. 1-overall expectation feel earned.

Full take and bio

Lawrence jumped from STTM #29 tier 8 in 2024 to #12 tier 3 in 2025 alongside a second division title, the recovery the consensus had been waiting on since the 2022 Pro Bowl year. The career still reads as one elite season inside a stretch of #28-or-worse finishes. Tier-3 in 2025 is a real correction, but it does not yet validate the first-overall-pick label.

Lawrence was born in Knoxville, became a five-star recruit at Cartersville High in Georgia, and won the 2019 College Football Playoff national title as a Clemson freshman, picking up Archie Griffin Award honors. Jacksonville selected him first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. He earned a Pro Bowl nod in 2022 after leading the Jaguars to their first division title since 2017, then captured a second AFC South title in 2025.

Comps

The players whose size, testing and production looked most like his at the same point in their careers. The percent is how close.

Plays like: Vinny Testaverde, Philip Rivers, Jim Kelly. Built like: Matt Leinart, Charlie Whitehurst, Eli Manning. Coming out: Blake Bortles, Matt Leinart, Geno Smith.

Of his 20 closest coming out: 5 stars, 3 starters, 7 backups, 5 didn't stick.

Trevor Lawrence Props This Weekat BAL Thu Nov 5

Market	Line	Over	Under
Passing yards	235.5	-112 DraftKings	-110 Fanatics
Passing TDs	1.5	-125 BetRivers	+122 DraftKings
Completions	18.5	-133 DraftKings	+105 Bovada
Pass attempts	29.5	-128 DraftKings	+100 DraftKings
Interceptions	0.5	+102 BetRivers	-126 DraftKings
Rushing yards	11.5	-111 BetMGM	-106 BetOnline
Carries	3.5	+110 DraftKings	-140 DraftKings
Longest rush	7.5	-105 DraftKings	-123 DraftKings
Anytime TD		+425 DraftKings

Best price across 8 books as of Thu Nov 5. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room

Play Trevor's numbers on Underdog · partner link

Trevor Lawrence Injury StatusNot listed

Trevor Lawrence is not on the injury report as of Nov 5. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.

This season · 7 games

Pass Yds1,69018th

Pass TD173rd

INT49th

Comp %66.0%10th

Rush Yds7816th

Rush TD022nd

Fantasy PPG19.38th

Total EPA64.12nd

EPA / dropback0.2821st

Time to throw2.72s

Avg air yards8.8

Aggressiveness15.6%

Longest comp (air)44 yd27th

19.3 fantasy points a game, 135 PPR on the season. Every game on the Game Log, every season on Career. Advanced numbers are EPA and Next Gen Stats.