Byron Murphy

Minnesota Vikings

Pos CB

Updated October 8, 2026

Model Score

71.8 MODEL

Resting on limited playing time

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

Tier 8 (#87) rookie to tier 2 (#11) sophomore is a 76-spot one-year jump that puts Murphy on the fastest interior defender development pace for a 1st-round pick. The Texas 2023 CFP National Championship Game pedigree plus the 16th overall draft slot establishes elite college foundation. The 2026 question is whether Murphy earns his first Pro Bowl plus crosses into tier 1 territory or whether the 2025 finish was a one-year context spike.

Murphy came out of Texas as the Seattle Seahawks' 1st-round pick (16th overall) in 2024 after starting for the Longhorns' 2023 CFP National Championship Game appearance. The Seahawks installed him in the interior rotation as a rookie. His STTM career runs tier 8 (#87) rookie to tier 2 (#11) breakout in 2025, a 76-spot year-over-year jump.

Strengths

76-spot year-over-year jump from tier 8 (#87) rookie to tier 2 (#11) sophomore puts him on the fastest IDL development pace.
Texas 2023 CFP National Championship Game pedigree plus 16th overall pick establishes elite college foundation.

Concerns

Single tier 2 finish without prior top-50 STTM history puts the 2025 production on a small sample with downside risk.
Seattle's broader defensive identity transition plus the multi-year offensive rebuild compresses the structural support around Murphy.

What to watch: Whether Murphy earns his first Pro Bowl in 2026 plus holds tier 2 or better, the threshold for confirming the 2025 breakout was structural rather than situational.