Connor McGovern
Buffalo BillsModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 16 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Comps
STM Take
Tier 8 (#109) in 2023 to tier 2 (#13) in 2025 in two years is one of the strongest mid-career rebound arcs at the guard position. The Penn State technical foundation plus the Buffalo offensive line stability appears to be the structural unlock. The 2026 question is whether McGovern holds tier 3 or better as he closes his prime, or whether the 2025 tier 2 finish was a one-year peak tied to specific Bills line health.
McGovern came out of Penn State as the Dallas Cowboys' 3rd-round pick (90th overall) in 2019 after winning the 2018 Rimington Trophy semifinalist nod. He started for Dallas at guard for four seasons, then signed with the Buffalo Bills in 2023 free agency to play guard next to Dion Dawkins. His STTM career runs tier 8 (#109) in 2023, tier 5 (#35-38) split in 2024, and tier 2 (#13) in 2025 protecting Josh Allen.
Strengths
- Tier 2 (#13) finish at age 28 protecting Josh Allen confirms the structural ceiling exists when the Bills' offensive line is healthy.
- Seven years of NFL starter reps across two systems gives him real veteran market value that Buffalo captured at a reasonable contract.
Concerns
- Career STTM range from tier 8 (#109) in 2023 to tier 2 (#13) in 2025 shows the ceiling is highly dependent on surrounding line health.
- Buffalo's cap structure around Josh Allen's QB contract limits the extension runway if the 2025 tier 2 doesn't hold.
What to watch: Whether McGovern holds tier 3 or better in 2026 with the Bills' offensive line healthy, or whether the 2025 tier 2 finish drifts back toward his career band of tier 5-8.