Terrel Bernard
Buffalo BillsModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 12 games
Draft & College
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Comps
STM Take
2024 tier 1 (#7) STTM peak plus the Baylor 3rd-round origin plus the structural Bills anchor role puts Bernard in the rarest outlier-positive LB class. The 50-spot regression from tier 1 (#7) in 2024 to tier 8 (#57) in 2025 flags either injury, scheme shift, or one-year context spike. The 2026 question is whether Bernard returns to tier 2-3 territory or whether the structural mid-career instability returns.
Bernard came out of Baylor as the Buffalo Bills' 3rd-round pick (89th overall) in 2022. He delivered a tier 1 (#7) STTM peak in 2024 anchoring the Bills' linebacker corps next to Matt Milano. His STTM career runs tier 3 (#20) in 2023, tier 1 (#7) peak in 2024, and tier 8 (#57) collapse in 2025.
Strengths
- 2024 tier 1 (#7) STTM peak as an 89th overall 3rd-round pick puts him in the rarest outlier-positive class at the LB position.
- Baylor Big 12 3rd-round origin plus four years of Bills system experience gives him real developmental foundation.
Concerns
- 50-spot regression from tier 1 (#7) in 2024 to tier 8 (#57) in 2025 flags either injury, scheme shift, or one-year context spike.
- Buffalo's cap structure around Josh Allen's QB contract limits the extension runway if the 2024 ceiling doesn't reassert.
What to watch: Whether Bernard returns to tier 3 (top 25) in 2026, the threshold for confirming the 2024 ceiling can be recaptured.