The forecast has gusts to 16 miles an hour. Not enough on its own to move a total, but it is real.
ATL at 
GBGB -6.5 / GB -2.55Sun 1:00 PM
CAR at 
CLECAR -2.5 / CAR -0.05Sun 1:00 PM
CIN at 
PITCIN -3.5 / PIT -1.89Sun 1:00 PM
HOU at 
INDHOU -1.5 / HOU -0.11Sun 1:00 PM
KC at 
MIAKC -10.5 / KC -4.89Sun 1:00 PM
LAC at 
BUFBUF -7 / BUF -6.25Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
JAXJAX -3 / JAX -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
DETDET -6.5 / DET -9.17Sun 1:00 PM
SEA at 
WASSEA -7.5 / SEA -2.75Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / NYG -4.42Sun 4:05 PM
ARI at 
SFSF -8.5 / SF -8.04Sun 4:05 PM
MIN at 
TBMIN -1.5 / TB -1.49Sun 4:25 PM
BAL at 
DALBAL -3.5 / BAL -0.91Sun 4:25 PM
LV at 
NONO -3 / NO -1.6Sun 8:20 PM
LA at 
DENLA -2.5 / DEN -1.93Mon 8:15 PM
PHI at 
CHIPHI -4.5 / CHI -0.75Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Cardinals
Kaleb Proctor DTKnee - MeniscusIR
Kitan Crawford SAnkleIR
Will Johnson CBNeckIR
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson SBackQ
Garrett Williams CBAchillesQ
3 more
Hjalte Froholdt CKneeQ
Max Melton CBToeQ
Roy Lopez DTGroinQ
49ers
Brandon Aiyuk WRPersonalOUT
Demarcus Robinson WRAnkleOUT
James Thompson Jr. DTAnkleDOUBTFUL
Nick Bosa DECalfDOUBTFUL
De'Zhaun Stribling WRAnkleIR
5 more
Jake Tonges TEKnee - MCLIR
C.J. West DTIR
Mike Evans WRHipQ
Jack Jones CBFootQ
Romello Height DEHandQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-20.
The game
49ers ahead means McCaffrey carries it late and Purdy throws less; Cardinals chasing means Brissett throws, and Wilson, Harrison and McBride get the volume.
ARI has to
Find Bourne against zone
0.52 EPA a target vs zone, 11th of 106. 49ers play zone 75.4%, 8th.
SF has to
Take the easy throws
49ers complete 66.0%, 1st. Cardinals allow completions at the 4th-highest rate.
The model's play
Our total 48.7 vs 47.5 posted (gusts 9 mph, rain 0.00 in at kickoff). Posted Sep 20 on that forecast; the forecast for kickoff is now gusts of 14 mph.
Won 53.5% of 1,975 past bets like it. The worst case we can be 80% sure of is 52.1%, which is still short of the 52.4% break-even.
Best price
SF -8.5 -101 at LowVig.ag, 20 booksSF -8 -115at Caesars ARI +8.5 -105 at FanDuel, 20 booksARI +9 -112at BetRiversThe matchup
Cardinals with the ballCardinals: find Bourne against zone.
Cardinals32ndCardinals31stCardinals31stthrow it as much as anyone 1stgo no-huddle 6thsit in Cover 3 6th49ers with the ball49ers: find Robinson against zone.
49ers26th49ers29th49ers29thnever go no-huddle 6th-loweststay under center 6th-lowestplay light boxes 2ndplay two-high 4thNot a key: pace. Cardinals 7th and 49ers 10th in plays a game. Both play fast, so the total leans over.
Ranks are 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side. top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Cardinals with the ballWhat they like to do Gannon's Cardinals throw it as much as anyone (1st) and go no-huddle (6th).
Where they win and lose They never break a long run (4th-worst), cannot run it (5th-worst) and never hit a deep one (6th-worst).
What the 49ers defense brings They sit in cover 3 (6th) and they cannot get a sack (worst), let everything get completed (worst) and never take it away (2nd-worst).
What works against them Load the box: they do not break long runs (4th-worst). Make them run it (5th-worst).
Where the two meet Cardinals: find Bourne against zone. 0.52 EPA a target vs zone, 11th of 106. 49ers play zone 75.4%, 8th. Cardinals: throw on first and second down. Cardinals pass on early downs 63.2%, 1st. 49ers are 6th-worst in early-down EPA allowed.
49ers with the ballWhat they like to do Shanahan's 49ers never go no-huddle (6th-lowest) and stay under center (6th-lowest).
Where they win and lose They complete everything (1st), protect the quarterback (4th) and move the ball (6th).
What the Cardinals defense brings They play light boxes (2nd) and play two-high (4th) and they lose early downs (3rd-worst), cannot get pressure (4th-worst) and let everything get completed (4th-worst).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet 49ers: find Robinson against zone. 0.52 EPA a target vs zone, 11th of 106. Cardinals play zone 72.3%, 13th. Cardinals: send it at Purdy, and get there. Purdy falls to -0.12 blitzed, but Cardinals are only 29th at turning the blitz into pressure.
Arizona
San Francisco
The bets
What the model likes
The information
Player angles
3 more player angles
Also posted, with no read either way: Jacoby Brissett 224.5 passing yards (over in 11 of his 23, 2024-2026), Jeremiyah Love 38.5 rushing yards, Tyler Allgeier 32.5 rushing yards (over in 16 of his 36, 2024-2026), Jacoby Brissett 7.5 rushing yards (over in 11 of his 23, 2024-2026), Trey McBride 68.5 receiving yards (over in 18 of his 35, 2024-2026), Michael Wilson 45.5 receiving yards (over in 14 of his 35, 2024-2026), Deebo Samuel Sr. 38.5 receiving yards (over in 17 of his 32, 2024-2026), Kendrick Bourne 19.5 receiving yards (over in 15 of his 28, 2024-2026), Jeremiyah Love 14.5 receiving yards, Tyler Allgeier 7.5 receiving yards (over in 11 of his 36, 2024-2026), Christian McCaffrey 4.5 receptions (over in 15 of his 23, 2024-2026), Deebo Samuel Sr. 3.5 receptions (over in 18 of his 32, 2024-2026), Michael Wilson 3.5 receptions (over in 14 of his 35, 2024-2026), Jeremiyah Love 2.5 receptions and Kendrick Bourne 2.5 receptions (over in 12 of his 28, 2024-2026).
Player trends
8 more player trends
Game angles
2 more game angles
First quarter: 49ers -3 and a total of 9.5.
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
Over 57.5 rushing yards for Christian McCaffrey leads 25 lines. On 3, the player's history and the matchup agree.
Why 86
- The story With it: the 49ers lead, so McCaffrey carries it late.
- The evidence 9 of 15 (60%) against a 12% baseline, 44% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 4 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup ARI allow 19% more than league to RBs, 3rd most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
- Where it went Unproven and priced at minus money, with no 1-unit bet on the game to ride alongside.
Why 84
- The story With it: a 48.5 total is a throwing script; Robinson is out, so the targets move.
- The evidence 15 of 20 (75%) against a 38% baseline, 61% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup ARI allow 26% more than league to TEs, 3rd most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
- Where it went Unproven and priced at minus money, with no 1-unit bet on the game to ride alongside.
Why 78
- The story With it: a 48.5 total is a throwing script; Robinson is out, so the targets move.
- The evidence 18 of 20 (90%) against a 62% baseline, 78% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup ARI allow 17% more than league to TEs, 2nd most.
- The price -165, which needs 62% to break even.
See all 25 player lines
Why 82
- The story With it: the Cardinals chase, so Brissett throws; a 48.5 total is a throwing script.
- The evidence 10 of 15 (67%) against a 30% baseline, 50% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 3 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup SF allow 6% more than league to TEs, 11th most.
- The price +115, which needs 47% to break even.
Why 77
- The story With it: a 48.5 total is a throwing script; Robinson is out, so the targets move.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 43% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup ARI allow 2% more than league to WRs, 15th most.
- The price +120, which needs 45% to break even.
Why 68
- The story With it: a 48.5 total is a throwing script; Robinson is out, so the targets move.
- The evidence 11 of 15 (73%) against a 50% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 4 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup ARI allow 3% more than league to RBs, 12th most.
- The price -110, which needs 52% to break even.
Why 64
- The story With it: the Cardinals chase, so Brissett throws; a 48.5 total is a throwing script.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 52% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup SF allow 5% more than league to WRs, 11th most.
- The price +120, which needs 45% to break even.
Why 60
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 16 of 26 (62%) against a 48% baseline, 49% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup ARI allow 7% more than league to QBs, 10th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 58
- The story With it: the Cardinals chase, so Brissett throws; a 48.5 total is a throwing script.
- The evidence 5 of 5 (100%) against a 73% baseline, 75% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup SF allow 5% more than league to WRs, 12th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 57
- The story With it: a 48.5 total is a throwing script; Robinson is out, so the targets move.
- The evidence 6 of 9 (67%) against a 47% baseline, 45% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup ARI allow 0% less than league to WRs, 16th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Lines from Bovada as of 2026-09-25. A record is the player against the consensus closing line, every game since 2023, graded on the box score. Overs hit 46 to 48% league-wide; that is the bar, not 50. "Player and matchup agree" means he clears this number 60%+ in the situation this game puts him in AND the opponent allows 10%+ over league to his position. None of these has a graded record yet.
Player trends
McCaffrey: 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with a rushing touchdown.
Christian McCaffreyRB as a favorite with a rushing touchdownWhy 82
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 17% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 4 other signals on the same side.
- Where it went Unproven and priced at minus money, with no 1-unit bet on the game to ride alongside.
Trey McBrideTE on the road as an underdog with a receiving touchdownWhy 81
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 19% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 3 other signals on the same side.
See all 4 player trends
Michael WilsonWR as an underdog with 50+ receiving yardsWhy 72
- The story With it: the Cardinals chase, so Brissett throws; a 48.5 total is a throwing script.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 22% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
George KittleTE at home with 50+ receiving yardsWhy 68
- The story With it: a 48.5 total is a throwing script; Robinson is out, so the targets move.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 50% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- Where it went Unproven and priced at minus money, with no 1-unit bet on the game to ride alongside.
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last time the 49ers were here, Nov 3, 2002: beat the OAK by 3 as a 3-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 198 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the 49ers.
The last time the Cardinals were here, Sep 29, 2019: lost to the Seahawks by 17 as a 5.5-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 45 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Cardinals.
See all 9 team trends
The last time the 49ers were here, Oct 1, 2000: beat the Cardinals by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 39 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Cardinals.
Inside the luck line: 111 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.
San Francisco have gone under as a home favorite in a division gameOn totals of 40 to 48.5; this game is 48.5, inside that.
Why 70
- The evidence 7 of 10 (70%) against a 38% baseline, 50% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
Arizona have gone under outdoors after a lossOn totals of 38 to 52.5; this game is 48.5, inside that.
Why 70
- The evidence 6 of 8 (75%) against a 41% baseline, 52% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
Arizona have gone under as a road underdog with a total of 48 or higherOn totals of 48 to 53.5; this game is 48.5, inside that.
Why 70
- The evidence 6 of 8 (75%) against a 41% baseline, 52% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
San Francisco have covered as a favorite of 7 or more outdoorsWhy 57
- The evidence 12 of 17 (71%) against a 49% baseline, 55% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. When two sections disagree, both stay.
History
Last meetings
- 2025 wk 1149ers at Cardinals49ers won, 49ers covered41-22
- 2025 wk 3Cardinals at 49ers49ers won, Cardinals covered15-16
- 2024 wk 1849ers at CardinalsCardinals won, Cardinals covered24-47
Against the spread in these meetings: 3-2 to Cardinals, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the 49ers by 8.5 at a total of 48.5: 49ers 28.5, Cardinals 20 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 48.5 is high. Cardinals play fast (7th in plays a game).
What changed. Cardinals: LCB Will Johnson ir. 49ers: WR Mike Evans questionable; WR Demarcus Robinson out; RDE Nick Bosa doubtful.
Model favorites
Two favorites from 35 signals: two player lines. None sized at this price. Data as of: forecast Fri 12:00 PM ET; injuries Fri 11:49 AM ET; model Fri 12:04 PM ET.
A player line
4 reasons forA player line
4 reasons forHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.