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Falcons at Packers

Week 3 · Thursday 20:15 ETLambeau Field · outdoorsPrime time
Spread
Packers -4.5opened Packers -7.5
Total
43.5opened 46.5
Since the opener
44 daily checks
Final
Falcons 35, Packers 14 

Packers laying 4.5 at home. It opened Packers -7.5 and 46.5 and has moved three times since, most recently on Sep 23.

The matchup

Falcons with the ball

Falcons: find London against zone.

Falcons offensePackers defense
24thMoving the ball22nd
21stThrowing it22nd
5thProtection vs the rushFalcons14th
7thHolding on to itFalcons28th
How they playlive in shotgun 4thalmost never play man 2nd-lowestsit in Cover 3 3rd
Packers with the ball

Packers: find Kraft against man.

Packers offenseFalcons defense
4thMoving the ballPackers13th
3rdThrowing it5th
12thProtection vs the rush11th
6thHolding on to it7th
How they playrun it more than almost anyone 5th-lowestblitz 2ndload the box 3rd-lowest

Not a key: the Falcons blitz (2nd) on Love. He drops when blitzed like everyone, but from 2nd in the league.

Ranks are 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side. top 8 bottom 8

The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Falcons with the ball

What they like to do Morris's Falcons live in shotgun (4th).

Where they win and lose They protect the quarterback (5th).

What the Packers defense brings They almost never play man (2nd-lowest), sit in cover 3 (3rd) and almost never blitz (4th-lowest) and they never take it away (5th-worst).

What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.

Where the two meet Falcons: find London against zone. 0.47 EPA a target vs zone, 15th of 106. Packers play zone 79.4%, 3rd. Falcons: run at the Packers zone eyes. Explosive run rate 11.6%, 13th. Packers play man 19.3%, 31st: lighter boxes, backs turned.

Packers with the ball

What they like to do LaFleur's Packers run it more than almost anyone (5th-lowest).

Where they win and lose They throw it well (3rd), move the ball (4th) and hit explosive passes (5th).

What the Falcons defense brings They blitz (2nd) and load the box (3rd-lowest) and they get sacks (4th) and make throws hard (5th).

What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.

Where the two meet Packers: find Kraft against man. 1.28 EPA a target vs man, 1st of 106. Falcons play man 32.7%, 12th. Packers: take the shots downfield. Packers hit explosive passes 11.2%, 5th. Falcons play two-high just 39.7%, 9th-fewest.

The winning decisions

Falcons win if they find London against zone. 0.47 EPA a target vs zone, 15th of 106. Packers play zone 79.4%, 3rd.

Packers win if they find Kraft against man. 1.28 EPA a target vs man, 1st of 106. Falcons play man 32.7%, 12th.

Atlanta

How they play
They blitz35.2%blitz rate2nd
and they load the box14.4%light box rate3rd-lowest
and they live in shotgun80.5%shotgun rate4th
Where they win and lose
They get sacks9.0%sack rate4th
and they protect the quarterback4.5%sacks taken5th
and they make throws hard52.5%completion rate allowed5th

Green Bay

How they play
They almost never play man19.3%man coverage rate2nd-lowest
and they sit in Cover 333.8%Cover 3 rate3rd
and they almost never blitz20.8%blitz rate4th-lowest
and they run it more than almost anyone52.3%pass rate5th-lowest
Where they win and lose
They throw it well+0.23EPA a pass3rd
and they move the ball+0.11EPA a play4th
and they hit explosive passes11.2%explosive pass rate5th
and they never take it away1.1%interception rate5th-worst
Atlanta tendencies→Green Bay tendencies→

The bets

What the model likes

Over 43.5 points 1 unit, the totals modelwon +1uConfidence 56
Our total 44.5 vs 43.5 posted (gusts 7 mph, rain 0.00 in at kickoff)
53.5%1,975 past bets

The information

Player angles

No posted player line has an angle firing on it this week.

Player trends

Josh Jacobs RB GB a rushing touchdownConfidence 72
at home · 15 of 31 everywhere else, 2024-2025
9 of 10last 10 at home
Tucker Kraft TE GB 50+ receiving yardsConfidence 72
in prime time as a favorite · 8 of 30 everywhere else, 2023-2025
6 of 7last 7 in prime time as a favorite
Bijan Robinson RB ATL 75+ rushing yardsConfidence 62
in prime time on the road · 21 of 45 everywhere else, 2024-2025
5 of 6last 6 in prime time on the road
Tua Tagovailoa QB ATL 2+ passing touchdownsConfidence 59
on the road outdoors · 15 of 36 everywhere else, 2023-2025
7 of 10last 10 on the road outdoors

Game angles

Lean Packers -4.5reading, not a betConfidence 55
Packers against a team that has missed three straight covers in the first four weeks with a head coach in year eight or later. Every game since 1999.
75-50covered, did not
Lean Falcons +4.5reading, not a betConfidence 54
Falcons after losing by 14 or more against a team that has missed three straight covers with the worse quarterback by two tiers. Every game since 1999.
56-37covered, did not
Lean Falcons +4.5reading, not a betConfidence 62
Road teams have covered 40 of 61 in September after the road team lost by 14 or more; usually 51%, 2016-2026.
40 of 61in this spot
Lean Falcons +4.5reading, not a betConfidence 67
Underdogs of under 7 have covered 30 of 42 in September after the road team lost by 14 or more; usually 51%, 2016-2026.
30 of 42in this spot
2 more game angles
Lean Under 43.5reading, not a betConfidence 50
The total in the first four weeks in prime time with a backup quarterback on the field. Every game since 1999.
16-22over, under
Lean Falcons +4.5reading, not a betConfidence 71
Packers off an overtime game on a short week. Every game since 1999.
8-29covered, did not

Game trends

Neither team has a trend on the spread or the total in this spot.

A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.

Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts

The player lines

No player lines posted for this game yet.

Player trends

Jacobs: 9 of his last 10 games at home with a rushing touchdown.

9of 10
Josh JacobsRB at home with a rushing touchdown
2024-2025 · 15 of 31 elsewhere
Why 72
  1. The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 48% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
  2. Agreement No other signal on this side.
Share this card
72
score
6of 7
Tucker KraftTE in prime time as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards
2023-2025 · 8 of 30 elsewhere
Why 72
  1. The evidence 6 of 7 (86%) against a 27% baseline, 62% after shrinking for sample size.
  2. Agreement No other signal on this side.
Share this card
72
score
See all 3 player trends
5of 6
Bijan RobinsonRB in prime time on the road with 75+ rushing yards
2024-2025 · 21 of 45 elsewhere
Why 62
  1. The evidence 5 of 6 (83%) against a 47% baseline, 58% after shrinking for sample size.
  2. Agreement No other signal on this side.
Share this card
62
score

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Player trends, every game →

Team trends

This week · Packers off an overtime game on a short week
8-29
this game200020052010201520202025
8 covered29 did notevery game since 1999, 22%; since 2021 4-8

The last time the Packers were here, Thanksgiving 2013: lost to the Lions by 30 as a 7-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 37 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Falcons.

This week · Packers against a team that has missed three straight covers in the first four weeks with a head coach in year eight or later
75-50
this game200020052010201520202025
75 covered50 did notevery game since 1999, 60%; since 2021 16-18

The last time the Packers were here, Sep 20, 2015: beat the Seahawks by 10 as a 3.5-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 125 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Packers.

See all 5 team trends
This week · Falcons after losing by 14 or more against a team that has missed three straight covers with the worse quarterback by two tiers
56-37
this game200020052010201520202025
56 covered37 did notevery game since 1999, 60%; since 2021 15-10

The last time the Falcons were here, Dec 16, 2001: lost to the Colts by 14 as a 4-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 93 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Falcons.

This week · The total in the first four weeks in prime time with a backup quarterback on the field
16-22
this game200020052010201520202025
16 went over22 stayed underevery game since 1999, 42%; since 2021 5-4

Inside the luck line: 38 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.

Searched this week: 2,159 spread situations and 116 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 4.11 on the spread and 3.44 on the total.

Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.

Game trends, every game →

What fires

Over 43.5 and ATL +7.5 fire.

Over 43.5 TOTALS MODEL
where the posted total is wrong, from the kickoff forecast
Our total 44.5 vs 43.5 posted (gusts 7 mph, rain 0.00 in at kickoff)
54%1,975 walk-forward betsConfidence 56, 50 is a coin flip · 1u
ATL +7.5 VS THE OPENER
our number against the first line posted, tracked in its own record
Our number ATL +4.42 vs the opener +7.5 (3.1 apart); now +5.5, toward our number
53%730-655-48 vs the opener, 2011-20211u
How this is graded

Graded at the number posted, never the close.

Lines and plays, every game →

Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. When two sections disagree, both stay.

History

Last meetings

  • 2023 wk 2Packers at FalconsFalcons won, Packers covered24-25
  • 2020 wk 4Falcons at PackersPackers won, Packers covered16-30

Against the spread in these meetings: 0-2 to Falcons, on closing numbers.

Build this angle in the Angle Finder→All games this week→