RaidersatPatriots

The tale of the tape

This is a game New England has to win through the air. The Patriots line up under center the 5th-most in the league, but their run game ranks 18th and meets a Raiders run defense ranked 8th. Since 2015, teams with a run-game edge this big won 58% but covered only 52%, because the line already knows. Expect New England to quit the run early and lean on Drake Maye. His answer is the easy throw: the Patriots are 2nd at completing passes, and the Raiders allow completions at the 3rd-highest rate and played zone on four of every five snaps last year. The danger is the Raiders rush, 3rd at hitting the quarterback, against a Patriots line ranked 11th, and an offense 30th at avoiding interceptions. If Maye starts forcing throws, that is where the game flips.

Las Vegas brings the other good unit: a passing game ranked 8th that is 5th at throwing on first and second down. What blunts it is a Patriots pass defense ranked 6th and a third-down defense ranked 5th against a Raiders offense 7th on third down, so expect some drives to stall short. Brock Bowers, at 17% of the targets, is the one who has to keep them alive. For the bet, the history and the angles split on the side. The Raiders have covered 3 of the last 4 meetings, while past games like this one lean Patriots -3.5 by a margin that could be luck, and that line opened at Patriots -8.5.