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Betting HQ · Week 7 · Sun 4:25 PM ET

PackersatLions

Betting HQ→Player angles→Angles on this game→
KickoffSun 4:25 PMFOX
MarketDET -3the posted spread
Our numberDET -4.61.6 more than the market
Total53.5the posted total
Triggers16of our tested angles fire on this game; which ones, on the matchup page
Sun 9:30 AMPIT at NOPIT -3 / PIT -0.86Sun 1:00 PMCIN at BALBAL -1.5 / BAL -0.41Sun 1:00 PMCLE at TENCLE -1.5 / CLE -0.98Sun 1:00 PMIND at MINMIN -6.5 / MIN -6.01Sun 1:00 PMMIA at NYJNYJ -4.5 / NYJ -5.29Sun 1:00 PMNYG at HOUHOU -10.5 / HOU -8.44Sun 1:00 PMSF at ATLSF -2.5 / SF -4.01Sun 1:00 PMTB at CARCAR -3 / CAR -2.51Sun 4:05 PMDEN at ARIDEN -4.5 / DEN -3.63Sun 4:25 PMGB at DETDET -3 / DET -4.6Sun 4:25 PMLA at LVLA -3.5 / LA -2.05Sun 8:20 PMKC at SEASEA -3 / KC -1.85Mon 8:15 PMDAL at PHIDAL -4.5 / DAL -1.92Thu 8:15 PMNE at CHICHI -3 / CHI -3.35

The run game. Expect the Lions to run it until the Packers prove they can stop it.

A Packers win moves their playoff chances from 49% to 68%; a loss drops them to 40%. Play out the rest of their season →

A Lions win moves their playoff chances from 66% to 77%; a loss drops them to 50%. Play out the rest of their season →

The Packers have 24 players on the injury report, the Lions 15.

Designations as of 2026-10-23.

Packers

+19 more

Lions

+10 more
Green Bay depth chart →Detroit depth chart →

Lions run game, 6th, against a run defense ranked 28th.

Longer bar, better unit.

Packers with the ball

Packers offenseLions defense
13th
Passing
27th
30th
Run game
18th
25th
Pass rush
6th
26th
Third down
30th
12th
Big plays
28th
8th
Turnovers
26th
24th
Red zone
30th

Lions with the ball

Lions offensePackers defense
12th
Passing
7th
6th
Run game
28th
21st
Pass rush
13th
22nd
Third down
29th
7th
Big plays
3rd
1st
Turnovers
1st
2nd
Red zone
23rd

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 6, close-game snaps.

On the moneyline, the money runs 45 points ahead of the bets on one side.

Fewer people, betting bigger.

Bets is the share of tickets; money is the share of dollars. When the money runs well ahead of the bets, fewer people are betting bigger on that side, the move bettors call sharp money.

Spread

Packers+3-3Lions
Bets43%57%
Money28%72%

The Lions: 57% of the bets, 72% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.

Since 2018: when the money ran 15 or more points ahead of the bets on a side, the money side covered 51.7% (199-186-18, 403 games). No better than a coin flip.

Total

Over53.553.5Under
Bets90%10%
Money100%0%

The over: 90% of the bets, 100% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.

Since 2018: when the money ran 10 or more points ahead of the bets on a side, the money side hit 50.7% (356-346-10, 712 games). No better than a coin flip.

Moneyline

Packers+145-175Lions
Bets34%66%
Money79%21%

66% of the bets are on the Lions, but 79% of the money is on the Packers.

Since 2018: when most of the bets sat on one side and most of the money on the other, the money side won 52.1% straight up, +13.5 units at the posted prices (187-172, 359 games). About even once you pay the prices.

Bets and money splits via DraftKings, as of Fri 12:04 PM ET. One book's customers, not the whole market.

Packers team total 24.5 Bovada, over -115, under -115; the spread and total split it 25.2

Lions team total 28.5 Bovada, over -105, under -125; the spread and total split it 28.2

Over 53.5: 2,058 past angles back it, where luck alone would give about 948.

Over 53.5some
2,058 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 948.
2.2xluck's count
Lions -3could be luck
805 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 680.
1.2xluck's count
This week · Packers with a total of 48 or higher on a three-game winning streak with three or more fewer days of rest
51-28
this game200020052010201520202025
51 covered28 did notevery game since 1999, 65%; since 2021 12-6

The last time the Packers were here, Jan 20, 2002: lost to the STL by 28 as a 11-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 79 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Packers.

This week · Packers with a head coach in year eight or later with the team indoors in the late-afternoon window
72-47
this game200020052010201520202025
72 covered47 did notevery game since 1999, 61%; since 2021 29-20

The last time the Packers were here, Dec 15, 2013: beat the Cowboys by 1 as a 4-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 119 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Packers.

This week · Packers on a three-game winning streak against a team off a bye
123-96
this game200020052010201520202025
123 covered96 did notevery game since 1999, 56%; since 2021 20-17

The last time the Packers were here, Jan 20, 2002: lost to the STL by 28 as a 11-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 219 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Packers.

This week · The total with two elite quarterbacks with a top receiver out
20-35
this game200020052010201520202025
20 went over35 stayed underevery game since 1999, 36%; since 2021 2-9

Inside the luck line: 55 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.

This week · The total with the spread on 3 with a total of 48 or higher indoors
47-32
this game200020052010201520202025
47 went over32 stayed underevery game since 1999, 59%; since 2021 13-14

Inside the luck line: 79 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the over.

Searched this week: 1,216 spread situations and 87 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 4.04 on the spread and 3.4 on the total.

Lions -3: the strongest angles

their overs hit this season 75% or more; the opponent's injury cost 26 or more 120-69

their overs hit this season 75% or more; the opponent's injury cost 25.63 or more 120-70

their overs hit this season 75% or more; the opponent's injury cost 32.5 or more 60-33

Packers +3: the strongest angles

their margin a game over the last three 12.33 pts or more; last game's margin minus the opponent's -11 pts or less 44-25

their cover rate this season 40% or less; points the opponent scored a game over the last three 33.67 pts or more 79-50

their margin a game over the last three 12.33 pts or more; off_bye 1 or less 47-28

Over 53.5: the strongest angles

how much they beat the spread two games ago -6.5 pts or less; their margin a game over the last three 8 pts or more 65-34

points they allowed a game over the last three 22.33 pts or more; points the opponent allowed a game over the last three 12.33 pts or less 62-33

their receivers' height over the opponent's corners 1.8 in or less; the opponent's margin a game over the last three 12.33 pts or more 74-41

Under 53.5: the strongest angles

how much the opponent beat the spread a game over the last three (minus = missed) 9.67 pts or more; last game's margin minus the opponent's 5 pts or more 39-17

how much the opponent beat the spread a game over the last three (minus = missed) 9.67 pts or more; last game's margin minus the opponent's 0 pts or more 52-27

what their defense allows to 6'3"+ receivers vs league 1 x or more; how much the opponent beat the spread two games ago 22 pts or more 48-25

Josh Jacobs Under 1.5 receptions (-110): 5 of 6 indoors.

Josh Jacobs RB GB Under 1.5 receptions (-110)no stake yet: his record at this line and the defense, not gradedConfidence 80
indoors · 9 of 26 everywhere else · DET allow 17% less than league to RBs, 27th most
5 of 6indoors
Josh Jacobs RB GB Under 9.5 receiving yards (-115)no stake yet: his record at this line and the defense, not gradedConfidence 63
indoors · 10 of 26 everywhere else · DET allow 28% less than league to RBs, 31st most
4 of 6indoors
Pierre Strong Jr. RB GB Under 8.5 rushing yards (-110)Confidence 74
in division games · 4 of 8 everywhere else · DET allow 6% less than league to RBs, 24th most · this season 7, 28
5 of 5in division games
2 more player angles
Jameson Williams WR DET Over 3.5 receptions (-145)Confidence 54
in division games at home · 17 of 31 everywhere else · GB allow 5% more than league to WRs, 11th most · this season 4, 2, 4, 6, 2
5 of 6in division games at home
Jordan Love QB GB Under 7.5 rushing yards (-120)Confidence 52
DET allow 6% less than league to QBs, 20th most · this season 0, 0, 0, -8, 6, 12
23 of 36games
12 more posted lines with no read either way

Josh Jacobs 49.5 rushing yards (over in 24 of his 32, 2024-2025), Marshawn Lloyd 10.5 rushing yards, Sione Vaki 9.5 rushing yards (over in 2 of his 10, 2024-2026), Jared Goff 0.5 rushing yards (over in 20 of his 39, 2024-2026), Isaac TeSlaa 23.5 receiving yards (over in 7 of his 19, 2025-2026), Savion Williams 22.5 receiving yards (over in 2 of his 12, 2025-2026), Pierre Strong Jr. 7.5 receiving yards (over in 8 of his 13, 2024-2026), Amon-Ra St. Brown 7.5 receptions (over in 16 of his 39, 2024-2026), Christian Watson 4.5 receptions (over in 5 of his 30, 2024-2026), Jahmyr Gibbs 4.5 receptions (over in 14 of his 39, 2024-2026), Tucker Kraft 4.5 receptions (over in 9 of his 31, 2024-2026) and Pierre Strong Jr. 1.5 receptions (over in 7 of his 13, 2024-2026).

Our number for this game.

Our number Lions -4.6 against the market Lions -3: 1.6 toward the Lions.

Last A Grade bet, graded: SEA at DEN, week 6, George Holani under 1.5 receptions (+110), won +0.55u; stamped Thu 7:41 PM ET; closed 1.5, matched the close.

12 picks on the official card.

Christian Watson over 72.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bovada)Watching · not a bet
His history: over 76.5 in 4 of 5 in division games on the road · His history, the matchup and the script point the same way; against it: the weather · Take it at 72.5 or lower · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET
Tucker Kraft over 43.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)Watching · not a bet
Where the line misses: over with the top receiver questionable, 56% of 341 since 2019, +0.06u a bet · A rule and the script point the same way · Take it at 43.5 or lower · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET
Jahmyr Gibbs over 94.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)Watching · not a bet
Where the line misses: over at home against a line missing two, 58% of 137 since 2019, +0.09u a bet · A rule and the script point the same way · Take it at 94.5 or lower · stamped Wed 4:47 PM ET
Under 53.5 (-107 at LowVig.ag)Watching · not a bet
The market (totals model): Model total is fifty-two-point-nine, six-tenths below the posted number on the under side; A rule (bet sheet): Two proven under angles fire: pass defense ranked seven or worse with travel under three fifty-five miles (one seventy-two to one oh-one); same conditions when the team's overs have hit sixty percent or more this season (seventy-nine to twenty-five); The script (game read): Detroit's balanced script means Goff does not pile up passing volume; Green Bay throwing into a twenty-ninth-ranked defense does not guarantee efficiency or scoring · · Take it at 53.5 or higher · stamped Tue 12:45 PM ET
DET -3 (-103 at Courtside)Small play · 0.25 units
Claude's best: The market (points model): Model has Detroit winning by four-point-six, one-point-six points better than the market spread; A rule (bet sheet): Two proven angles both fire: opponent pass defense top-four and opponent injury cost over twenty-six (three twenty-nine to two thirty-eight); same setup with last-game spread context (one eighty-three to ninety-five); The script (injuries): Green Bay's injury cost is thirty-four-point-six: Josh Jacobs is out, Jordan Love is questionable, and Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are both questionable, removing half the Packers offense from certainty · · Take it at -3 or better · stamped Tue 12:45 PM ET
Over 53.5 (-107.0)Watching · not a bet
The Lions have gone over 14 of 14 as a favorite with extra rest · A read: team history · Take it at 53.5 or lower · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET
Amon-Ra St. Brown under 77.5 receiving yards (-115.0)Watching · not a bet
Under in 22 of 31 as a favorite, 4 of 8 everywhere else · The grid and his history point the same way; against it: the script · Take it at 77.5 or higher · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET
Isaac TeSlaa under 1.5 catches (+114 at DraftKings)Watching · not a bet
The grid: 1 angle say over, 23 under; best, as a favorite with a high total in the division: 62% of 399 · A read: the grid; against it: the script · Take it at 1.5 or higher · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET
Jameson Williams under 52.5 receiving yards (-113 at DraftKings)Watching · not a bet
The grid: 2 angles say over, 8 under; best, as a favorite with a high total in the division: 59% of 434 · A read: the grid; against it: the script · Take it at 52.5 or higher · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET
Savion Williams under 2.5 catches (-135 at DraftKings)Watching · not a bet
The grid: 0 angles say over, 24 under; best, with a high total in the division: 59% of 799 · A read: the grid; against it: the script · Take it at 2.5 or higher · stamped Wed 1:18 PM ET
Sam LaPorta under 5.5 catches (-160.0)Watching · not a bet
His history (prop board): Spot under indoors: four of twenty over (twenty percent) versus four of ten elsewhere; verdict is lean under; The market (prop gaps): CONFIRMED verdict with gap score negative zero-point-four-eight-five; LaPorta's median is five catches with the line sitting at five-point-five; The market (projection): Projected at four-point-three catches versus the five-point-five line, four-point-seven percent under edge · A read: his history; against it: the script · Take it at 5.5 or higher · stamped Thu 9:04 AM ET
Jordan Love under 280.5 passing yards (-115 at Bovada)Watching · not a bet
Where the line misses: under as an underdog with the top receiver questionable, 59% of 137 since 2019, +0.11u a bet · A read: a rule; against it: the script · Take it at 280.5 or higher · stamped Thu 12:55 PM ET
Matthew Golden over 73.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bovada)withdrawn
His history: over 73.5 in 3 of 5 as an underdog · His history, the matchup and the script point the same way; against it: the grid · Take it at 73.5 or lower · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 21: no longer qualifies on the latest inputs (status, weather, price or a conflict)
Sam LaPorta over 50.5 receiving yards (-111 at DraftKings)withdrawn
Where the line misses: over against a line missing two, 57% of 231 since 2019, +0.07u a bet · A rule and the script point the same way · Take it at 50.5 or lower · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 22: one leg a player (Sam LaPorta under 5.5 catches is on the card)
Jared Goff over 277.5 passing yards (-115 at Bovada)withdrawn
Jared Goff has 8 of his last 10 games indoors with over 1.5 passing touchdowns · His history and the script point the same way · Take it at 277.5 or lower · stamped Thu 7:06 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 23: bet score 52 no longer lists it on this stamp's inputs
Savion Williams anytime TD (700 at DraftKings)withdrawn
The market: Kalshi 17%, fair +488; +700 at DraftKings · · stamped Wed 8:53 AM ET · withdrawn Oct 21: no longer qualifies on the latest inputs (status, weather, price or a conflict)
MarShawn Lloyd anytime TD (160 at DraftKings)withdrawn
The market: Kalshi 48%, fair +111; +160 at DraftKings · · stamped Wed 8:53 AM ET · withdrawn Oct 21: no longer qualifies on the latest inputs (status, weather, price or a conflict)
Jahmyr Gibbs under 38.5 receiving yards (-113 at DraftKings)withdrawn
The grid: 0 angles say over, 17 under; best, at home off a bye after a win: 71% of 83 · A read: the grid; against it: the script · Take it at 38.5 or higher · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 21: one leg a player (Jahmyr Gibbs over 94.5 rushing yards is on the card)
Jordan Love over 277.5 passing yards (-113 at DraftKings)withdrawn
The grid: 4 angles say over, 2 under; best, in the division in a dome against a secondary with a starter out: 61% of 165 · A read: the script · Take it at 277.5 or lower · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 22: one leg a player (Jordan Love under 280.5 passing yards is on the card)
Jared Goff under 279.5 passing yards (-115.0)withdrawn
Under in 15 of 25 indoors as a favorite, 6 of 14 everywhere else · A read: his history; against it: his history and the script · Take it at 279.5 or higher · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 22: one leg a player (Jared Goff over 277.5 passing yards is on the card)
Matthew Golden under 4.5 catches (+125 at DraftKings)withdrawn
The grid: 0 angles say over, 12 under; best, with a high total in the division: 59% of 799 · A read: the grid; against it: the script · Take it at 4.5 or higher · stamped Wed 1:31 AM ET · withdrawn Oct 22: one leg a player (Matthew Golden over 73.5 receiving yards is on the card)

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