Arden Key
Indianapolis ColtsModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 12 games
Draft & College
He lasted longer than consensus.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Comps
STM Take
2021 49ers tier 3 (#24) peak plus eight years of NFL survival across four teams puts Key in the journeyman edge defender class with structural mid-career volatility. The LSU 3rd-round origin plus the 2021 breakout proves a top-25 ceiling exists in the right scheme fit. The 2026 question is whether Key holds the Titans' EDGE role at age 30 or whether the structural late-career decline closes the chapter.
Key came out of LSU as the Oakland Raiders' 3rd-round pick (87th overall) in 2018 and has bounced through the Raiders, 49ers, Jaguars, and now Titans across eight NFL seasons. He delivered a tier 3 (#24) breakout in 2021 with the 49ers. His STTM career runs tier 8 (#108) rookie, tier 3 (#24) peak in 2021, tier 8 (#84) in 2023, tier 6 (#46) in 2024, and tier 8 (#69) in 2025.
Strengths
- 2021 49ers tier 3 (#24) peak as a 3rd-round pick confirms a top-25 EDGE ceiling exists in the right scheme fit.
- Eight years of NFL survival across four systems gives him plug-in pass-rush rotation veteran value.
Concerns
- Career STTM volatility (tier 8 rookie, tier 3 in 2021, tier 8 in 2023, tier 6 in 2024, tier 8 in 2025) confirms the ceiling is entirely team-fit and scheme dependent.
- Tennessee's broader defensive identity transition plus the multi-year rebuild compresses the structural support around Key's late-career role.
What to watch: Whether Key holds tier 7 or better in 2026 or whether the role compresses back to swing depth.