Arden Key

Indianapolis Colts

Pos EDGE

Updated October 8, 2026

Compare Arden Key EDGE rankings →

Model Score

75.3 MODEL

2018

69.6

2020

68.8

2021

76.9

2022

73.6

2023

71.4

2024

77.7

2025

73.1

2026

75.3

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

2021 49ers tier 3 (#24) peak plus eight years of NFL survival across four teams puts Key in the journeyman edge defender class with structural mid-career volatility. The LSU 3rd-round origin plus the 2021 breakout proves a top-25 ceiling exists in the right scheme fit. The 2026 question is whether Key holds the Titans' EDGE role at age 30 or whether the structural late-career decline closes the chapter.

Key came out of LSU as the Oakland Raiders' 3rd-round pick (87th overall) in 2018 and has bounced through the Raiders, 49ers, Jaguars, and now Titans across eight NFL seasons. He delivered a tier 3 (#24) breakout in 2021 with the 49ers. His STTM career runs tier 8 (#108) rookie, tier 3 (#24) peak in 2021, tier 8 (#84) in 2023, tier 6 (#46) in 2024, and tier 8 (#69) in 2025.

Strengths

2021 49ers tier 3 (#24) peak as a 3rd-round pick confirms a top-25 EDGE ceiling exists in the right scheme fit.
Eight years of NFL survival across four systems gives him plug-in pass-rush rotation veteran value.

Concerns

Career STTM volatility (tier 8 rookie, tier 3 in 2021, tier 8 in 2023, tier 6 in 2024, tier 8 in 2025) confirms the ceiling is entirely team-fit and scheme dependent.
Tennessee's broader defensive identity transition plus the multi-year rebuild compresses the structural support around Key's late-career role.

What to watch: Whether Key holds tier 7 or better in 2026 or whether the role compresses back to swing depth.