Nik Bonitto
Denver BroncosUNDERPAIDModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 17 games
Draft & College
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Comps
STM Take
Tier 8 (#122) rookie to back-to-back tier 1 finishes (#3, #5) in 2024-2025 is one of the most dramatic developmental arcs at the position in recent memory. The Oklahoma 2021 Big 12 DPOY plus the 64th overall draft slot plus the Vance Joseph defensive scheme appear to be the catalysts. The 2026 question is whether Bonitto earns his first Pro Bowl plus 1st-team All-Pro recognition that the tier 1 STTM finishes imply he deserves.
Bonitto came out of Oklahoma as the Denver Broncos' 2nd-round pick (64th overall) in 2022 after winning the 2021 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. He spent his rookie year as a rotational rusher before emerging as the Broncos' primary edge in 2023. His STTM career runs tier 8 (#122) rookie, tier 2 (#11) breakout in 2023, tier 1 (#3) peak in 2024, and tier 1 (#5) in 2025.
Strengths
- Back-to-back tier 1 finishes (#3, #5) in 2024-2025 puts him in the top-5 edge defender conversation for the late-2020s window.
- 117-spot two-year jump from tier 8 (#122) rookie to tier 1 (#5) in year four is one of the most outlier-positive developmental arcs in recent memory.
Concerns
- No Pro Bowl or All-Pro recognition yet despite the back-to-back tier 1 STTM finishes flags a real gap between metric dominance and broader voting.
- Denver's broader defensive identity around Vance Joseph's scheme creates the question of whether Bonitto's ceiling is scheme-dependent.
What to watch: Whether Bonitto wins his first Pro Bowl in 2026 plus holds tier 1 (top 10), the threshold for confirming the back-to-back tier 1 finishes were structural.