Dawson Knox
Buffalo Bills·#88Model Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
STM Take
The 2021 tier 2 (#7) finish was the peak, and the four seasons since have all landed in tier 7-or-worse territory (#47, #39, #28 with one outlier #54). Wks 14 and 15 2025 produced 17.3 and 18.7 PPR, the spike weeks that justify the contract, but six of his other 2025 weeks scored under 11 PPR. He is a defined blocker plus occasional red-zone target.
Knox came out of Ole Miss as Buffalo's 3rd-round pick (96th overall) in 2019 after a college career limited by his time behind A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf in the Ole Miss WR room. His 2021 season produced the career high: tier 2 #7 with 49 catches for 587 yards and 9 touchdowns. He signed a 4-year, $52M extension in August 2022 and has spent the years since fluctuating between tier 8 #39 and #47 finishes as the Bills' WR investments compressed his target share. The 2025 tier 7 #28 finish reflects a modest rebound year.
Strengths
- 2021 tier 2 (#7) finish on 49 catches for 587 yards and 9 touchdowns plus the 2022 4-year, $52M extension establishes real franchise commitment.
- Wks 14 and 15 2025 produced 17.3 and 18.7 PPR, the spike weeks that confirm the red-zone ceiling remains. Pass-protection grades are top-15 at the position.
Concerns
- Four straight tier 7-or-worse STTM finishes since the 2021 peak (#36 in 2019, #47 in 2023, #39 in 2024, #28 in 2025) confirms the contract has not been earned on receiving production.
- Career receiving yards per season has trended below 500 since 2022. Josh Allen's preference for spreading targets to Khalil Shakir, James Cook, and the WR room caps Knox's ceiling.
What to watch: Whether Buffalo restructures his contract or releases him for cap savings in 2026, because the 2021 peak production has not been replicated despite four full seasons.
Comps
Dawson Knox Props This Weekat LA Mon Oct 12
| Market | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 1.5 | +127 DraftKings | -158 FanDuel |
| Receiving yards | 10.5 | -112 DraftKings | -112 DraftKings |
| Longest reception | 9.5 | -108 DraftKings | -120 DraftKings |
| Anytime TD | +650 BetRivers |
Best price across 9 books as of Fri Oct 9. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room
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Dawson Knox Injury StatusNot listed
Dawson Knox is not on the injury report as of Oct 9. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.
Dawson Knox Stats This Season · 4 games
Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Dawson Knox Fantasy Outlook
Dawson Knox scored 15 PPR points, 3.8 per game this season. Compare him against any TE and track weekly rankings in our fantasy tools.