Dorance Armstrong Jr.

Washington CommandersUNDERPAID

Pos EDGE

Updated October 8, 2026

Compare Dorance Armstrong Jr. EDGE rankings →

Model Score

75.3 MODEL

2018

65.9

2019

67.4

2020

65.8

2021

73.6

2022

81.5

2023

76.6

2024

77.3

2025

74.6

2026

75.3

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

2022 Dallas tier 3 (#21) breakout to tier 4 (#30) Washington debut to tier 6 (#47) in 2025 confirms the structural ceiling is highly opposite-side-of-formation dependent. The Kansas Big 12 origin plus the multi-team career gives him real veteran value. The 2026 question is whether Armstrong returns to tier 4-5 territory or whether the structural tier 6 finish creates contract-value risk for the $45M deal.

Armstrong came out of Kansas as the Dallas Cowboys' 4th-round pick (116th overall) in 2018 and spent six years in Dallas as a rotational pass-rusher behind Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. He signed a three-year, $45M deal with the Washington Commanders in 2024 free agency. His STTM career runs tier 8 (#61) in 2021, tier 3 (#21) breakout in 2022, tier 5 (#35) in 2023, tier 4 (#30) in 2024 with Washington, and tier 6 (#47) in 2025.

Strengths

2022 tier 3 (#21) Dallas breakout plus the 2024 tier 4 (#30) Washington debut confirms a structural top-30 EDGE ceiling exists in the right team-fit.
Eight years of NFL development across two systems plus positional flexibility gives him real veteran market value.

Concerns

17-spot regression from tier 4 (#30) in 2024 to tier 6 (#47) in 2025 flags the $45M Washington contract as potentially compromised.
Career STTM volatility (tier 3 in 2022, tier 5-6 surrounding) confirms the ceiling is highly team-fit dependent.

What to watch: Whether Armstrong returns to tier 4 (top 30) in 2026, the threshold for closing the gap between $45M contract and STTM ranking.