Dorance Armstrong Jr.
Washington CommandersUNDERPAIDModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 7 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Comps
STM Take
2022 Dallas tier 3 (#21) breakout to tier 4 (#30) Washington debut to tier 6 (#47) in 2025 confirms the structural ceiling is highly opposite-side-of-formation dependent. The Kansas Big 12 origin plus the multi-team career gives him real veteran value. The 2026 question is whether Armstrong returns to tier 4-5 territory or whether the structural tier 6 finish creates contract-value risk for the $45M deal.
Armstrong came out of Kansas as the Dallas Cowboys' 4th-round pick (116th overall) in 2018 and spent six years in Dallas as a rotational pass-rusher behind Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. He signed a three-year, $45M deal with the Washington Commanders in 2024 free agency. His STTM career runs tier 8 (#61) in 2021, tier 3 (#21) breakout in 2022, tier 5 (#35) in 2023, tier 4 (#30) in 2024 with Washington, and tier 6 (#47) in 2025.
Strengths
- 2022 tier 3 (#21) Dallas breakout plus the 2024 tier 4 (#30) Washington debut confirms a structural top-30 EDGE ceiling exists in the right team-fit.
- Eight years of NFL development across two systems plus positional flexibility gives him real veteran market value.
Concerns
- 17-spot regression from tier 4 (#30) in 2024 to tier 6 (#47) in 2025 flags the $45M Washington contract as potentially compromised.
- Career STTM volatility (tier 3 in 2022, tier 5-6 surrounding) confirms the ceiling is highly team-fit dependent.
What to watch: Whether Armstrong returns to tier 4 (top 30) in 2026, the threshold for closing the gap between $45M contract and STTM ranking.