Gregory Rousseau
Buffalo BillsUNDERPAIDModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 16 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Comps
STM Take
Tier 1 (#4) peak in 2024 to tier 3 (#22) in 2025 is an 18-spot regression that flags injury, scheme shift, or one-year context spike. The Miami pedigree plus the 2021 opt-out context plus four years of steady developmental climb culminating in the 2024 tier 1 peak proves the elite ceiling exists. The 2026 question is whether Rousseau returns to tier 1 territory or whether the 2024 finish was the late-prime peak.
Rousseau came out of Miami as the Buffalo Bills' 1st-round pick (30th overall) in 2021 after opting out of the 2020 college season. He has anchored the Bills' edge opposite Von Miller and now Joey Bosa across five seasons. His STTM career runs tier 4 (#27) rookie, tier 3 (#18) in 2022, tier 2 (#13) in 2023, tier 1 (#4) peak in 2024, and tier 3 (#22) in 2025.
Strengths
- 2024 tier 1 (#4) peak as a 30th overall pick confirms a top-5 edge defender ceiling exists when the surrounding defensive context aligns.
- Five-year developmental arc tier 4 to tier 1 shows steady year-over-year improvement that few edge defenders sustain.
Concerns
- 18-spot regression from tier 1 (#4) in 2024 to tier 3 (#22) in 2025 flags injury, scheme shift, or one-year context spike that needs explanation.
- Buffalo's cap structure around Josh Allen's QB contract limits the extension runway if the 2024 peak doesn't reassert.
What to watch: Whether Rousseau returns to tier 2 (top 15) in 2026 plus earns his first Pro Bowl, the threshold for confirming the 2024 tier 1 finish was structural.