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PlayerJake Ferguson · TE, Dallas Cowboys, Model Score 83.5Be the Cowboys GM

Jake Ferguson

Dallas Cowboys·#87
Pos TEHt 6'5"Wt 250 lbExp 4 yrCollege Wisconsin
Updated October 9, 2026

Model Score

83.5 MODEL
2022
79.3
2023
88.3
2024
81.1
2025
85.8
2026
83.5

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

Ferguson at STTM #12 tier 3 in 2025 climbed back from STTM #46 tier 8 in 2024 to earn his second Pro Bowl in three years. The 2024 dip was the outlier; the 2023 (#6 tier 2) and 2025 trajectories show what the role can produce when the Cowboys passing game is healthy. The Pickens addition for 2025 added competition for targets but Ferguson held a Pro Bowl share.

Ferguson was born in Rapid City, South Dakota, attended James Madison Memorial in Madison, Wisconsin, and was first-team All-Big Ten at Wisconsin. The Cowboys took him 129th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. He has made two Pro Bowls (2023, 2025) and accumulated 231 catches for 2,029 yards and 15 receiving TDs across four seasons.

Strengths

  • 34-rank improvement from 2024 to 2025; one of the cleanest TE rebounds on the board.
  • Two Pro Bowls in three eligible years; the resume tier is established.

Concerns

  • 2024 STTM #46 tier 8 finish proves the floor is real; the role compresses fast when the system stumbles.
  • George Pickens's addition to Dallas means the target share is now split four ways with Lamb.

What to watch: Whether Ferguson's Pro Bowl floor holds in 2026 with Pickens still in the mix.

Comps

Overall match
size, testing and production, same career stage
Famous comp
names you know, same point in their careers (around year 5)
Built like
measurables only, his size
Coming out
pros whose college production, size and testing looked like his

Names you know nearby: Zach Miller ’07 59%, Zach Ertz ’13 58%.

Of his 20 closest coming out: 2 stars, 4 starters, 6 backups, 8 didn't stick.

Jake Ferguson Injury StatusNot listed

Jake Ferguson is not on the injury report as of Oct 9. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.

Jake Ferguson Stats This Season · 4 games

12
Rec
83
Rec Yds
3
Rec TD
15
Targets
20.8
Yds/Gm
9.6
Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

0.385
EPA / target
4.1 yd
Avg separation
3.2 yd
Avg cushion
-1.0
YAC over exp
60.0%
Catch %

Draft & College

Round 4, pick 129 · Dallas Cowboys · 2022
Wisconsin (Big Ten)
Taken
#129
where he actually went
Our college model
#85
among TE in our college data
In college · 2018-2021 · 46 games
139 rec, 1,560 yds, 13 TD, 11.2 yds/rec

Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.

Jake Ferguson Fantasy Outlook

Jake Ferguson scored 38 PPR points, 9.6 per game this season. Compare him against any TE and track weekly rankings in our fantasy tools.

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