Jarrett Patterson
Houston TexansModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 7 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Comps
STM Take
Tier 2 (#9) rookie to tier 4 (#32) to tier 6 (#42) is a three-year decline arc that flags the 2023 breakout as either system-driven or a one-year context spike. The Notre Dame 41-start positional flexibility plus the 6th-round draft slot makes the rookie tier 2 finish remarkable. The 2026 question is whether Patterson stabilizes at tier 5-6 or whether the trajectory continues drifting toward the tier 7-8 floor.
Patterson came out of Notre Dame as the Houston Texans' 6th-round pick (201st overall) in 2023 after starting 41 games for the Fighting Irish across center and guard. He won the Texans' starting interior job out of rookie camp and delivered an immediate tier 2 (#9) breakout. His STTM career runs tier 2 (#9) rookie season, tier 4 (#32) sophomore, and tier 6 (#42) in 2025, a multi-year decline that flags a regression to the late-Day-3 baseline.
Strengths
- Rookie tier 2 (#9) finish as a 6th-round pick puts him in the small group of Day 3 IOLs to break top-10 STTM in year one.
- Notre Dame 41-start positional flexibility (center and both guards) gives him roster value as starter-or-depth.
Concerns
- Three-year decline from tier 2 (#9) to tier 6 (#42) is the kind of trajectory that often ends with a roster transition by year five.
- Houston's broader offensive line investment around C.J. Stroud (multiple Day 1-2 picks) signals the front office may still draft an upgrade.
What to watch: Whether Patterson stabilizes at tier 5 or better in 2026, or whether the trajectory continues drifting toward the tier 7-8 floor.