Jonathan Greenard
Model Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 12 games
Draft & College
He lasted longer than consensus.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Comps
STM Take
Tier 1 (#4) peak in 2023 plus the $76M Vikings extension plus the 2024 tier 2 (#11) Vikings debut to tier 6 (#41) collapse in 2025 creates a major contract-vs-STTM gap. The Florida pedigree plus the 3rd-round origin makes the 2023 breakout remarkable, but the 2025 regression flags real risk. The 2026 question is whether Greenard returns to tier 2 territory or whether the $76M contract becomes a structural cap problem for Minnesota.
Greenard came out of Florida as the Houston Texans' 3rd-round pick (90th overall) in 2020 after transferring from Louisville. He emerged into a tier 1 (#4) breakout in 2023 with the Texans, then signed a four-year, $76M deal with the Minnesota Vikings in 2024 free agency. His STTM career runs tier 2 (#15) in 2021, tier 8 (#84) in 2022, tier 1 (#4) peak in 2023, tier 2 (#11) in 2024, and tier 6 (#41) in 2025.
Strengths
- 2023 tier 1 (#4) peak as a 3rd-round pick confirms a top-5 EDGE ceiling exists when the structural context aligns.
- Five years of NFL development across two systems plus the 2024 tier 2 (#11) Vikings debut gives him real veteran value.
Concerns
- 30-spot regression from tier 2 (#11) in 2024 to tier 6 (#41) in 2025 flags either injury, scheme shift, or one-year context spike.
- $76M Vikings contract creates major contract-value risk if the 2025 finish doesn't bounce back to tier 3 or better in 2026.
What to watch: Whether Greenard returns to tier 3 (top 25) in 2026, the threshold for closing the gap between $76M contract value and STTM ranking.
