Kwity Paye
Las Vegas RaidersModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 17 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Comps
STM Take
Career STTM range mostly tier 5-8 across five years for a 21st overall pick puts Paye in the negative draft-slot-vs-outcome class at the position. The Michigan Big Ten pedigree plus the 21st overall draft slot established expectations that the Colts chapter has not matched. The 2026 question is whether Paye returns to tier 5 territory or whether the structural age-26 decline closes the elite chapter that never fully opened.
Paye came out of Michigan as the Indianapolis Colts' 1st-round pick (21st overall) in 2021 and has held the Colts' starting EDGE job across five seasons. His STTM career runs tier 8 (#88) rookie, tier 5 (#33) in 2022, tier 8 (#58) in 2023, tier 5 (#38) in 2024, and tier 8 (#76) in 2025.
Strengths
- Five years of NFL starter reps at age 26 plus the Michigan Big Ten 21st overall draft pedigree gives him real veteran market value.
- Career STTM range with two tier 5 peaks (2022, 2024) confirms a top-40 EDGE ceiling exists in the right team-fit.
Concerns
- Career STTM range mostly tier 5-8 across five years for a 21st overall pick puts him in the negative draft-slot-vs-outcome class.
- Indianapolis's broader defensive identity around Anthony Richardson's offensive instability puts continued Paye production partly outside his control.
What to watch: Whether Paye returns to tier 5 (top 40) in 2026, the threshold for confirming the 2022 and 2024 ceilings can be sustained.