Lukas Van Ness
Green Bay PackersModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 9 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Comps
STM Take
Two straight tier 8 finishes (#81, #58) for a 13th overall pick is well below the year-three median for top-15 EDGE prospects on Pro Bowl trajectories. The Iowa Big Ten pedigree plus the 13th overall draft slot established expectations that the Packers chapter has not yet matched. The 2026 question is whether Van Ness crosses into tier 5-6 territory in his year-four jump or whether the structural tier 8 ceiling caps below top-30 EDGE.
Van Ness came out of Iowa as the Green Bay Packers' 1st-round pick (13th overall) in 2023 after the Packers traded up to secure him as the long-term EDGE opposite Rashan Gary. He spent his first three years in rotational pass-rush roles. His STTM career runs tier 8 (#81) sophomore to tier 8 (#58) in 2025, two straight tier 8 finishes that's well below the year-three median for top-15 EDGE prospects.
Strengths
- 23-spot year-over-year improvement from tier 8 (#81) in 2024 to tier 8 (#58) in 2025 shows developmental trajectory.
- Iowa Big Ten pedigree plus the 13th overall draft slot gives him real technical foundation.
Concerns
- Two straight tier 8 finishes for a 13th overall pick puts him in the negative draft-slot-vs-outcome class at the position.
- Green Bay's broader defensive identity around Rashan Gary's primary EDGE plus the Micah Parsons addition compresses Van Ness's snap-share dependency.
What to watch: Whether Van Ness crosses into tier 5 (top 40) in 2026, the standard year-four threshold for top-15 EDGE picks on Pro Bowl trajectories.