T.J. Watt
Pittsburgh SteelersOVERPAIDModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 14 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Comps
STM Take
Eight Pro Bowls plus four 1st-team All-Pros plus 2021 DPOY plus the 22.5-sack record-tying season plus two career tier 1 (#1) STTM peaks establishes Watt as a Hall-of-Fame edge defender. The 2025 tier 5 (#34) finish is a 24-spot regression from 2024 that flags injury, scheme shift, or structural decline needing explanation. The 2026 question is whether Watt returns to tier 1-2 territory or whether the 2025 finish is the structural late-career inflection.
Watt came out of Wisconsin as the Pittsburgh Steelers' 1st-round pick (30th overall) in 2017 and has made eight Pro Bowls (2018-2024) plus earned four 1st-team All-Pro selections (2019-2021, 2023). He won the 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year after a record-tying 22.5 sacks. He has crossed 110 career sacks across nine seasons and is on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. His STTM career runs tier 1 (#1) peak in 2021 DPOY, tier 6 (#46) in 2022, tier 1 (#1) in 2023, tier 2 (#10) in 2024, and tier 5 (#34) in 2025.
Strengths
- Eight Pro Bowls plus four 1st-team All-Pros plus 2021 DPOY plus 110+ career sacks establishes a Hall-of-Fame edge defender résumé.
- Two career tier 1 (#1) STTM peaks (2021, 2023) confirms the highest possible edge defender ceiling has been reached multiple times.
Concerns
- 24-spot regression from tier 2 (#10) in 2024 to tier 5 (#34) in 2025 flags injury, scheme shift, or structural late-career decline.
- Age 31 plus nine years of elite pass-rush wear puts the late-career structural decline question on every 2026 projection.
What to watch: Whether Watt returns to tier 2 (top 15) in 2026 plus earns his ninth Pro Bowl, the threshold for confirming the 2025 finish was situational rather than structural.