T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh SteelersOVERPAID

Pos EDGE

Updated October 9, 2026

Compare T.J. Watt EDGE rankings →

Model Score

90.7 MODEL

2018

88.3

2019

93.0

2020

99.0

2021

93.0

2022

75.0

2023

99.0

2024

94.2

2025

79.3

2026

90.7

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

Eight Pro Bowls plus four 1st-team All-Pros plus 2021 DPOY plus the 22.5-sack record-tying season plus two career tier 1 (#1) STTM peaks establishes Watt as a Hall-of-Fame edge defender. The 2025 tier 5 (#34) finish is a 24-spot regression from 2024 that flags injury, scheme shift, or structural decline needing explanation. The 2026 question is whether Watt returns to tier 1-2 territory or whether the 2025 finish is the structural late-career inflection.

Watt came out of Wisconsin as the Pittsburgh Steelers' 1st-round pick (30th overall) in 2017 and has made eight Pro Bowls (2018-2024) plus earned four 1st-team All-Pro selections (2019-2021, 2023). He won the 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year after a record-tying 22.5 sacks. He has crossed 110 career sacks across nine seasons and is on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. His STTM career runs tier 1 (#1) peak in 2021 DPOY, tier 6 (#46) in 2022, tier 1 (#1) in 2023, tier 2 (#10) in 2024, and tier 5 (#34) in 2025.

Strengths

Eight Pro Bowls plus four 1st-team All-Pros plus 2021 DPOY plus 110+ career sacks establishes a Hall-of-Fame edge defender résumé.
Two career tier 1 (#1) STTM peaks (2021, 2023) confirms the highest possible edge defender ceiling has been reached multiple times.

Concerns

24-spot regression from tier 2 (#10) in 2024 to tier 5 (#34) in 2025 flags injury, scheme shift, or structural late-career decline.
Age 31 plus nine years of elite pass-rush wear puts the late-career structural decline question on every 2026 projection.

What to watch: Whether Watt returns to tier 2 (top 15) in 2026 plus earns his ninth Pro Bowl, the threshold for confirming the 2025 finish was situational rather than structural.