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StickToTheModel
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Betting HQ · Week 10 · Mon 8:15 PM ET

ChargersatRavens

KickoffMon 8:15 PMESPN
MarketBAL -5.5the posted spread
Our numberno line
Total38.5the posted total
Triggers0none of our tested angles fire on this game

The run game. Expect the Chargers to give up on the run early.

A Ravens win moves their playoff chances from 9% to 12%; a loss drops them to 5%. Play out the rest of their season →

The Chargers have 18 players on the injury report, the Ravens 16.

Designations as of 2026-11-09.

Chargers

+13 more

Ravens

+11 more

Ravens run defense, 14th, against a run game ranked 32nd.

Longer bar, better unit.

Chargers with the ball

Chargers offenseRavens defense
32nd
Passing
18th
32nd
Run game
14th
27th
Pass rush
15th
25th
Third down
14th
29th
Big plays
6th
32nd
Turnovers
21st
26th
Red zone
19th

Ravens with the ball

Ravens offenseChargers defense
12th
Passing
11th
13th
Run game
22nd
28th
Pass rush
12th
11th
Third down
5th
11th
Big plays
21st
4th
Turnovers
3rd
15th
Red zone
11th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 9, close-game snaps.

No bets-versus-money split is posted for this game yet.

Chargers team total 16.5 the 38.5 total and the 5.5 spread, split; no posted team total yet

Ravens team total 22 the 38.5 total and the 5.5 spread, split; no posted team total yet

The situations on the schedule that fit this game.

This week · Chargers against a team that has missed three straight covers after traveling 1,500 miles or more
81-124
this game200020052010201520202025
81 covered124 did notevery game since 1999, 40%; since 2021 15-28

The last time the Chargers were here, Sep 29, 2019: beat the Dolphins by 20 as a 15-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 205 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Ravens.

This week · Chargers after losing by 14 or more against a team that has missed three straight covers two or more time zones from home
6-24
this game200020052010201520202025
6 covered24 did notevery game since 1999, 20%; since 2021 0-8

The last team here, the 49ers, Nov 14, 1999: lost to the Saints by 18 as a 1-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 30 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Ravens.

This week · Chargers in prime time after traveling 1,500 miles or more
112-153
this game200020052010201520202025
112 covered153 did notevery game since 1999, 42%; since 2021 31-47

The last time the Chargers were here, Dec 2, 2018: beat the Steelers by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 265 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Ravens.

This week · The total in 30 mph gusts
365-490
this game200020052010201520202025
365 went over490 stayed underevery game since 1999, 43%; since 2021 62-97

Past the luck line: a record this far from a coin flip on 855 games does not come from shuffled results. That points at the under.

This week · The total on Monday with a backup quarterback on the field
37-53
this game200020052010201520202025
37 went over53 stayed underevery game since 1999, 41%; since 2021 8-12

Inside the luck line: 90 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.

Searched this week: 2,958 spread situations and 230 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 4.19 on the spread and 3.71 on the total.

The books have not posted player lines for this game yet.

Our number for this game is not posted yet.

Nothing on the official card for this game.