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Betting HQ · Week 10 · Sun 9:30 AM ET

PatriotsatLions

KickoffSun 9:30 AMFOX
MarketNE -1.5the posted spread
Our numberDET -1.11we take the other side
Total51.5the posted total
Triggers0none of our tested angles fire on this game

The passing game. Expect the Lions to attack through the air all day.

A Patriots win moves their playoff chances from 72% to 84%; a loss drops them to 65%. Play out the rest of their season →

A Lions win moves their playoff chances from 81% to 86%; a loss drops them to 74%. Play out the rest of their season →

The Lions have 16 players on the injury report, the Patriots 13.

Designations as of 2026-11-09.

Patriots

+8 more

Lions

+11 more

Lions passing game, 11th, against a pass defense ranked 25th.

Longer bar, better unit.

Patriots with the ball

Patriots offenseLions defense
8th
Passing
22nd
22nd
Run game
10th
14th
Pass rush
7th
14th
Third down
22nd
12th
Big plays
28th
31st
Turnovers
14th
19th
Red zone
25th

Lions with the ball

Lions offensePatriots defense
11th
Passing
25th
14th
Run game
6th
23rd
Pass rush
9th
22nd
Third down
10th
3rd
Big plays
23rd
5th
Turnovers
20th
12th
Red zone
16th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 9, close-game snaps.

No bets-versus-money split is posted for this game yet.

Patriots team total 24.5 (ours 25.6, 1.1 over) the 51.5 total and the 2.5 spread, split; no posted team total yet

Lions team total 27 (ours 26.8, 0.2 under) the 51.5 total and the 2.5 spread, split; no posted team total yet

The situations on the schedule that fit this game.

This week · Lions with a total of 48 or higher against a team that has missed three straight covers with an elite quarterback
53-85
this game200020052010201520202025
53 covered85 did notevery game since 1999, 38%; since 2021 11-23

The last time the Lions were here, Sep 18, 2016: lost to the Titans by 1 as a 6-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 138 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Patriots.

This week · Lions on a three-game winning streak against a team without its top receiver with the worse head coach by two tiers
18-7
this game200020052010201520202025
18 covered7 did notevery game since 1999, 72%

The last time the Lions were here, Oct 2, 2011: beat the Cowboys by 4 as a 2.5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 25 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Lions.

This week · Patriots in a pick 'em with a total of 48 or higher after losing by 14 or more
42-26
this game200020052010201520202025
42 covered26 did notevery game since 1999, 62%; since 2021 11-7

The last time the Patriots were here, Nov 7, 2004: beat the STL by 18 as a 2.5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 68 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Patriots.

This week · The total in a pick 'em with a top receiver out
66-93
this game200020052010201520202025
66 went over93 stayed underevery game since 1999, 42%; since 2021 20-26

Inside the luck line: 159 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.

This week · The total with two elite quarterbacks with a top receiver out
20-35
this game200020052010201520202025
20 went over35 stayed underevery game since 1999, 36%; since 2021 2-9

Inside the luck line: 55 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.

Searched this week: 2,958 spread situations and 230 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 4.19 on the spread and 3.71 on the total.

The books have not posted player lines for this game yet.

Our number for this game.

Our number Lions -1.1 against the market Lions -2.5: 1.4 toward the Patriots. The v8 total 52.4, 0.9 over the number.

Nothing on the official card for this game.