The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.
Bears with the ball
Bears offensePackers defense
6th
Passing
10thi
19th
Run game
18th
8th
Pass rush
16th
9th
Third down
30th
7th
Big plays
6th
14th
Turnovers
5th
29th
Red zone
30th
Packers with the ball
Packers offenseBears defense
15th
Passing
1st
32nd
Run game
30th
24th
Pass rush
14th
32nd
Third down
1st
14th
Big plays
16thi
8th
Turnovers
11th
23rd
Red zone
15th
Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 4 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.
The tale of the tape
This is a mismatch when Green Bay has the ball. The Bears pass defense ranks 1st against a Packers passing game at 15th, and the Bears are 1st on third down against a Packers third-down offense that ranks 32nd. Since 2015, teams with a passing edge this big won 60% of the time but covered only 48%, because the line already knows. The ground offers little: the Packers ran the 5th-most in the league last year, but their run game ranks 32nd, against a Bears run defense nearly as bad at 30th. Green Bay's answer is Jordan Love in a clean pocket, where he has been the best of 36 quarterbacks. The catch is a line that ranks 24th at keeping him clean, facing a Bears pass rush at 14th. If Love gets time, that is where the game flips.
Chicago's best unit is its passing game, 6th, against a Packers pass defense that ranks 10th, and 18th once you account for the passing games it has faced. The Packers are also 30th on third down. What blunts the Bears is the Packers takeaway defense, 5th, against Bears ball security at 14th, and a Bears red-zone offense that ranks 29th. D'Andre Swift is the steady part: 50+ rushing yards in 8 of his last 10 road games. For the bet, the history and the angles disagree on the side. Our picks on this game are on the card, behind the Betting Pass.
Team totals
Bears scored 7 against a team total of 24: under. the spread and total, split; ours 22.0, 2.0 under.
Packers scored 31 against a team total of 22.5: over. the spread and total, split; ours 23.0, 0.5 over.
Team trends
Each team's own record in a spot like this one, against its record everywhere else. A reason to lean, not a bet.
Packers have gone under 5 of 7 as a home underdoghit, 38 points
20 of 47 everywhere else, 2023-2026, LaFleur and Love · points to Under 46.5
5 of 7in this spot
Bears have covered 3 of the last 4 meetings
Last time, 2025 week 19: Packers 27, Bears 31, Bears covered.
3-1against the spread
Team angles
Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. More of them than luck would give point at Packers +1.5 and Over 46.5.
Packers +1.5strongcovered
2,795 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 737.
3.8xluck's count
Over 46.5somemissed, 38 points
2,181 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 1,088.
2.0xluck's count
Player trends
Each player's own record in a spot like this one, his best stat first.
D'Andre SwiftRBhit, 1 rush TD
D'Andre Swift has 7 of his last 10 games on the road with a rushing touchdown. 12 of 36 everywhere else, 2024-2026.
7 of 10last 10
Josh JacobsRB
Josh Jacobs has 9 of his last 10 games at home with a rushing touchdown. 15 of 31 everywhere else, 2024-2025.
9 of 10last 10
Caleb WilliamsQB
Caleb Williams has 7 of his last 10 games outdoors with 2+ passing touchdowns. 3 of 8 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
7 of 10last 10
1 more player trends
D'Andre SwiftRBmissed, 43 rush yds
D'Andre Swift has 8 of his last 10 games outdoors with 50+ rushing yards. 9 of 19 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
8 of 10last 10
Player angles
No player line on this game was archived with a read.
Model plays
Graded: Small plays went 1-0; Watching went 2-0.
Jonnu Smith over 7.5 receiving yards (-110.0)Watching, not a bet
His history: Tiny receiving line over (64.6% of 785), with an active and role check. The read fits: the Packers throw in this script. Proof A: PR-014 tiny receiving line over Stamped Fri 8:39 AM ET.
GB +3Small play, 0.8uwon +0.73u
The market (points model): the model's number has Green Bay favored by about 1 point at home, so plus 1.5 gives roughly 2.5 points of value past the market; A rule (angle card): GB plus 1.5 vs CHI hit 59.4 percent in the 2020 to 2025 replay on 4 reasons; A rule (bet sheet): Four proven GB plus 1.5 angles, best at 314-225 and 285-199. Proof C: the mined angle card Stamped Tue 12:09 AM ET.
Tyson Bagent under 220.5 passing yards (-115.0)Watching, not a betwon, 87 passing yards
The weather: Both forecasts have gusts of 22 mph at kickoff, which bite hardest on QB yardage; The script (qb): Bagent has 1 team start this year and 0 prior starts, a thin resume for anything over 220; His history (player trend): Bagent has cleared 219.5 in only 1 of his last 8 passing games across 2024 to 2026. Proof: no registered rule behind it: the bet score and the read only Stamped Fri 12:40 PM ET.
Christian Watson over 62.5 receiving yards (-115.0)Watching, not a betwon, 143 receiving yards
Over in 3 of 5 in division games as an underdog, 8 of 23 everywhere else. Proof: no registered rule behind it: the bet score and the read only Stamped Fri 12:40 PM ET.
5 more plays
Under 45.5withdrawn
Pulled Oct 8 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
D'Andre Swift anytime TDwithdrawn
Pulled Oct 9 when it stopped qualifying.
Sam Roush anytime TDwithdrawn
Pulled Oct 10 when it stopped qualifying.
Roschon Johnson anytime TDwithdrawn
Pulled Oct 10 when it stopped qualifying.
D'Andre Swift over 50 rushing yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 10 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
Where it turned: the passing game. Expect the Packers to find nowhere to throw.Sunday: Packers threw for 367 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Packers with the ball
