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Week 5 · Sunday Oct 11 · Final

RavensatFalcons

All week 5 games→Betting HQ→
FinalBAL 30, ATL 23Ravens by 7
SpreadATL -3.5Ravens covered
Total44.5went over, 53 points
OpenedBAL -4.5moved 1 points by kickoff

The angles leaned Ravens +3.5: it hit. The model's reads, Over 45.5: it won.

Where it turned: the passing game. Expect the Falcons to find nowhere to throw.Sunday: Falcons threw for 274 yards and 1 touchdown.

Depth charts

The charts as they stand today.

Baltimore depth chart→Atlanta depth chart→

Head to head

The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.

Ravens with the ball

Ravens offenseFalcons defense
1st
Passing
9th
9th
Run game
1st
3rd
Pass rush
6th
19th
Third down
5th
2nd
Big plays
9th
1st
Turnovers
30th
9th
Red zone
8th

Falcons with the ball

Falcons offenseRavens defense
31st
Passing
12th
3rd
Run game
16th
5th
Pass rush
21st
30th
Third down
21st
8th
Big plays
10th
32nd
Turnovers
17th
3rd
Red zone
15th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 4 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.

The tale of the tape

This is a game Atlanta has to win on the ground. The Falcons' passing game ranks 31st, and 28th once you account for the pass defenses it has faced, against a Ravens pass defense that ranks 12th. Since 2015, teams with an edge that size won 60% of the time but covered only 48%, because the line already knows. So Atlanta runs: it runs on early downs more than anyone, throws deep less than anyone, and its run game ranks 3rd against a Ravens run defense that ranks 16th. Bijan Robinson has 66 carries already. Baltimore's answer is Lamar Jackson and the league's 1st-ranked passing game against a Falcons pass defense that ranks 9th. If Atlanta falls behind and has to throw, that is where the game flips.

Atlanta's best unit is its red-zone offense, 3rd at turning trips into touchdowns, and 7th once you account for the defenses it has faced, against a Ravens red-zone defense that ranks 15th. What blunts it is getting there: the Falcons rank 30th on third down and 32nd at avoiding interceptions. Drake London gets 26% of the targets and has 50+ receiving yards in 9 of his last 10 home games. For the bet, the history and the angles agree on the side. Our picks on this game are on the card, behind the Betting Pass.

Team totals

Ravens scored 30 against a team total of 20.5: over. the spread and total, split; ours 23.7, 3.2 over.

Falcons scored 23 against a team total of 24: under. the spread and total, split; ours 23.0, 1.0 under.

Team angles

Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. More of them than luck would give point at Ravens +3.5.

Ravens +3.5somecovered
762 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 440.
1.7xluck's count
Over 44.5could be luckhit, 53 points
1,101 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 1,041.
1.1xluck's count

Player angles

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Model plays

Graded: Small plays went 1-1; Watching went 2-0.

BAL +3 (-110 at LowVig.ag)Watching, not a betKinds Cwon +0u
The market (points model): the model's number has the home spread at zero point six for Atlanta, basically a pick and three plus points off this market; A rule (evidence score): BAL covers survived at a z of two point five five, our strongest side; Team history (team trend): Ravens are seven of ten covering on the road in prime time against twenty two of forty four everywhere else. 2 kinds agree: team history and the market. Proof: no registered rule behind it: the bet score and the read only Stamped Wed 6:20 PM ET.
Over 43.5 (-110 at FanDuel)Small play, 0.25uwon +0.23u
Script play: The market (totals model): the model's total sits at forty six point seven, three point two over the posted number; The market (tuesday total): edge at the line now is three point two with the number having dropped two points from the forty five point five opener, so we are getting better than the opener; The market (prop gaps): BAL first-quarter team points over, Flowers receiving-yards over, London receiving-yards over, London longest reception over all flag score-friendly spots. Proof B: rule k Tuesday total Stamped Wed 6:20 PM ET.
Tyler Huntley under 173.5 passing yards (-113.0 at DraftKings)Small play, 0.25ulost, 201 passing yards
Early-week under: The market: our projection 150.8 passing yards, first posted at 173.5 (170.5 now); the under by 13% past the price. Proof C: early-week under Stamped Thu 8:36 AM ET.
Rashod Bateman over 17.5 receiving yards (-115.0)Watching, not a betwon, 62 receiving yards
Over in 21 of 33 games, 2024-2026. One kind, a read: his history. Proof: no registered rule behind it: the bet score and the read only Stamped Fri 8:39 AM ET.
3 more plays
ATL -3.5withdrawn
Pulled Oct 11 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
Derrick Henry over 85.5 rushing yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 9 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Drake London under 5.5 catcheswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 11 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
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