FinalNE 24, CHI 30Bears by 6
SpreadCHI -3Bears covered
Total50.5went over, 54 points
OpenedCHI -1.5moved 1.5 points by kickoff
The run game. Expect the Patriots to run it until the Bears prove they can stop it.
Sunday: Patriots ran for 70 yards on 17 carries.
The model's reads, Over 48.5: it won.
The depth charts as they stand today.
Patriots run game, 22nd, against a run defense ranked 32nd.
Longer bar, better unit.
Patriots with the ball
Patriots offenseBears defense
6th
Passing1st
22nd
Run game32nd
14th
Pass rush10th
14th
Third down2nd
15th
Big plays23rd
29th
Turnovers20th
20th
Red zone24th
Bears with the ball
Bears offensePatriots defense
9th
Passing15th
16th
Run game12th
9th
Pass rush9th
9th
Third down5th
8th
Big plays16th
15th
Turnovers13th
25th
Red zone13th
Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 6 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps.
Patriots scored 24 against a team total of 23.5: over.
Patriots scored 24 against a team total of 23.5: over. Bovada's posted line; ours 23.1, 0.4 under.
Bears scored 30 against a team total of 26.5: over. Bovada's posted line; ours 26.5, on it.
Bears have gone under 11 of 14 in prime time.
Bears have gone under 11 of 14 in prime timemissed, 54 points
20 of 43 everywhere else, 2023-2026, new coach in 2025, new QB in 2024 · points to Under 50.5
Bears have covered 6 of 8 outdoors in prime timecovered
23 of 43 everywhere else, 2023-2026, new coach in 2025, new QB in 2024 · points to Bears -3
Patriots have covered 1 of the last 2 meetings
Last time, 2024 week 10: Patriots 19, Bears 3, Patriots covered.
Over 50.5: 1,266 past angles back it, where luck alone would give about 1,007.
Over 50.5could be luckhit, 54 points
1,266 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 1,007.
Patriots +3could be luckmissed
243 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 440.
Caleb Williams has 7 of his last 10 games outdoors with 2+ passing touchdowns.
Caleb WilliamsQBhit, 2 pass TD
Caleb Williams has 7 of his last 10 games outdoors with 2+ passing touchdowns. 3 of 9 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
Drake MayeQBhit, 321 pass yds
Drake Maye has 7 of his last 10 games on the road with 250+ passing yards. 8 of 18 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
Luther Burden Under 4.5 receptions (+105): 3 of 6 this season.
Luther Burden WR CHI Under 4.5 receptions (+105)Confidence 56
Why: under 4.5 in 16 of 21 since 2025; NE allow 7% less than league to his position · Against: this season 5, 3, 7, 4, 4, 8 (average 5)
Cole Kmet TE CHI Over 8.5 receiving yards (-115)Confidence 56
Why: over 8.5 in 27 of 37 since 2024; NE allow 6% more than league to his position · Against: this season 35, 0, 0, 13, 8, 3 (average 10)
Kalif Raymond WR CHI Over 24.5 receiving yards (-115)Confidence 54
Why: this season 84, 40, 90, 6, 6, 18 (average 41) · Against: under 24.5 in 5 of 5 in prime time as a favorite; NE allow 12% less than league to his position
6 more player angles
Luther Burden WR CHI Over 56.5 receiving yards (-120)Confidence 52
Why: this season 63, 32, 61, 63, 47, 95 (average 60) · Against: under 56.5 in 5 of 7 at home as a favorite; NE allow 12% less than league to his position
Rhamondre Stevenson RB NE Over 2.5 receptions (-115)Confidence 52
Why: this season 5, 1, 3, 3, 3, 0 (average 2) · Against: under 2.5 in 19 of 35 since 2024; CHI allow 11% less than league to his position
Cole Kmet TE CHI Over 1.5 receptions (+160)Confidence 50
Why: over 1.5 in 23 of 37 since 2024; NE allow 7% more than league to his position · Against: this season 2, 0, 0, 2, 1, 2 (average 1)
Kyle Williams WR NE Under 1.5 receptions (-170)Confidence 70
CHI allow 4% less than league to WRs, 20th most · this season 1, 1, 0, 3, 1
Rome Odunze WR CHI Under 3.5 receptions (-170)Confidence 68
in prime time · 15 of 27 everywhere else · NE allow 7% less than league to WRs, 26th most · this season 2, 3, 3, 6, 3, 3
Demario Douglas WR NE Under 3.5 receptions (-130)Confidence 52
CHI allow 4% less than league to WRs, 20th most · this season 5, 1, 1, 2, 4, 7
11 more posted lines with no read either way
Drake Maye 246.5 passing yards (over in 17 of his 36, 2024-2026), Demario Douglas 37.5 receiving yards (over in 13 of his 38, 2024-2026), D'Andre Swift 17.5 receiving yards (over in 19 of his 39, 2024-2026), Efton Chism 16.5 receiving yards, TreVeyon Henderson 2.5 receiving yards (over in 16 of his 22, 2025-2026), Colston Loveland 3.5 receptions (over in 10 of his 22, 2025-2026), D'Andre Swift 2.5 receptions (over in 16 of his 39, 2024-2026), Hunter Henry 2.5 receptions (over in 26 of his 39, 2024-2026), Efton Chism 1.5 receptions, Eli Raridon 1.5 receptions and TreVeyon Henderson 0.5 receptions (over in 16 of his 22, 2025-2026).
Graded: Small plays went 2-0; Watching went 6-4.
Hunter Henry over 33.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bovada)Watching, not a betwon, 71 receiving yards
Where the line misses: over on a short week outdoors, 57% of 202 since 2019, +0.08u a bet. The grid, a rule and the script point the same way Stamped Wed 1:31 AM ET.
Eli Raridon over 13.5 receiving yardsWatching, not a betwon, 56 receiving yards
Where the line misses: over on a short week outdoors, 57% of 202 since 2019, +0.08u a bet. The grid, a rule and the script point the same way Stamped Wed 1:31 AM ET.
Colston Loveland over 44.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)Watching, not a betwon, 69 receiving yards
Where the line misses: over on a short week outdoors, 57% of 202 since 2019, +0.08u a bet. The grid, a rule and the script point the same way Stamped Wed 1:31 AM ET.
Rhamondre Stevenson under 18.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bovada)Watching, not a betlost, 93 receiving yards
His history: under 18.5 in 23 of 35 games. The grid, his history and the matchup point the same way; against it: the script Stamped Thu 12:55 PM ET.
16 more plays
TreVeyon Henderson under 30.5 rushing yardsWatching, not a betwon, 9 rushing yards
The grid: 0 angles say over, 13 under; best, in prime time with a high total against a secondary with a starter out: 68% of 192. The grid and the script point the same way Stamped Wed 1:31 AM ET.
Drake Maye under 28.5 rushing yards (-112.0 at FanDuel/BetRivers)Small play, 0.25uwon, 26 rushing yards
Early-week under: The market: our projection 19.6 rushing yards, first posted at 28.5 (27.5 now); the under by 10% past the price. A read: the grid Stamped Tue 12:45 PM ET.
Over 50.5 (-115 at DraftKings)Watching, not a betwon +0u
A rule: wind gusts 21 mph or less; the opponent's injury cost 13 or more. Stamped Tue 12:45 PM ET.
Rome Odunze under 45.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bovada)Watching, not a betlost, 69 receiving yards
His history: under 44.5 in 8 of 8 in prime time. His history and the matchup point the same way; against it: the script Stamped Wed 1:31 AM ET.
CHI -3 (+100 at Courtside)Small play, 0.25uwon +0.25u
Script play: A rule (bet sheet): The four-condition tier-both angle (opponent coach year 4 or more, opponent missed last spread badly, opponent ATS rate 55% or more, opponent 4 or more starters out) is 140-58, seventy-one percent; A rule (bet sheet): The tier-proven angle requiring opponent cover rate 60% or more and opponent injury cost 19.5 or more is 423-317 (fifty-seven percent); New England's cost is 36.4; The script (injuries): New England has a 36.4 injury cost: Onwenu on IR (19.6), Carlton Davis III out (12.0), and two additional CBs out, gutting the secondary. A read: team history; against it: the market Stamped Tue 12:45 PM ET.
Under 50.5 (-103 at Courtside)Watching, not a betlost -0u
The Bears have gone under 11 of 14 in prime time. A read: team history Stamped Tue 12:45 PM ET.
D'Andre Swift under 62.5 rushing yards (-115 at Bovada)Watching, not a betlost, 78 rushing yards
Under in 22 of 39 games, 2024-2026. The grid and the matchup point the same way; against it: a rule and the script Stamped Wed 1:31 AM ET.
Kalif Raymond under 2.5 catches (-105 at DraftKings)Watching, not a betwon, 0 catches
The grid: 0 angles say over, 14 under; best, with a high total outdoors: 58% of 1457. A read: the grid; against it: the script Stamped Wed 1:31 AM ET.
Pulled Oct 21 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
Pulled Oct 21 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
Pulled Oct 21 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Pulled Oct 22 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Pulled Oct 21 when it stopped qualifying.
Pulled Oct 22 when it stopped qualifying.
Pulled Oct 22 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Pulled Oct 22 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.