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Betting HQ · Week 7 · Sun 4:25 PM ET

RamsatRaiders

KickoffSun 4:25 PMET
MarketLA -3.5the posted spread
Our numberLA -2.051.5 less than the market
Total48.5the posted total
Triggers16of our tested angles fire on this game; which ones, on the matchup page

The run game. Expect the Raiders to give up on the run early.

A Rams win moves their playoff chances from 30% to 34%; a loss drops them to 20%. Play out the rest of their season →

A Raiders win moves their playoff chances from 12% to 20%; a loss drops them to 9%. Play out the rest of their season →

The Raiders have 16 players on the injury report; the Rams have none.

Designations as of 2026-10-23.

Rams

  • Nobody listed.

Raiders

+11 more

Rams run defense, 10th, against a run game ranked 26th.

Longer bar, better unit.

Rams with the ball

Rams offenseRaiders defense
15th
Passing
29th
9th
Run game
15th
15th
Pass rush
3rd
8th
Third down
21st
18th
Big plays
29th
19th
Turnovers
17th
15th
Red zone
27th

Raiders with the ball

Raiders offenseRams defense
5th
Passing
18th
26th
Run game
10th
28th
Pass rush
26th
4th
Third down
9th
16th
Big plays
12th
18th
Turnovers
6th
18th
Red zone
8th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 6, close-game snaps.

On the total, the money runs 24 points ahead of the bets on one side.

Fewer people, betting bigger.

Bets is the share of tickets; money is the share of dollars. When the money runs well ahead of the bets, fewer people are betting bigger on that side, the move bettors call sharp money.

Spread

Rams-3.5+3.5Raiders
Bets45%55%
Money31%69%

The Raiders: 55% of the bets, 69% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.

Since 2018: when the money ran 10 or more points ahead of the bets on a side, the money side covered 52.1% (330-304-23, 657 games). No better than a coin flip.

Total

Over48.548.5Under
Bets73%27%
Money97%3%

The over: 73% of the bets, 97% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.

Since 2018: when the money ran 20 or more points ahead of the bets on a side, the money side hit 56% (202-159-4, 365 games). Better than a coin flip, but inside the luck line: a random search finds that much by chance.

Moneyline

Rams-192+160Raiders
Bets77%23%
Money67%33%

The Raiders: 23% of the bets, 33% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.

Since 2018: when the money ran 10 or more points ahead of the bets on a side, the money side won 57.1% straight up, +4.7 units at the posted prices (504-379, 883 games). About even once you pay the prices.

Bets and money splits via DraftKings, as of Fri 12:04 PM ET. One book's customers, not the whole market.

Rams team total 26.5 Bovada, over -120, under -110; the spread and total split it 26.0

Raiders team total 20.5 Bovada, over -150, under +115; the spread and total split it 22.5

Over 48.5: 2,832 past angles back it, where luck alone would give about 1,238.

Over 48.5strong
2,832 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 1,238.
2.3xluck's count
Rams -3.5some
1,614 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 706.
2.3xluck's count
This week · Rams with a head coach in year eight or later with the team indoors in the late-afternoon window
72-47
this game200020052010201520202025
72 covered47 did notevery game since 1999, 61%; since 2021 29-20

The last time the Rams were here, Sep 15, 2024: lost to the Cardinals by 31 as a 1-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 119 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Rams.

This week · Raiders with a total of 48 or higher on a three-game losing streak indoors
63-44
this game200020052010201520202025
63 covered44 did notevery game since 1999, 59%; since 2021 15-14

The last time the Raiders were here, Thanksgiving 2021: beat the Cowboys by 3 as a 7-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 107 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Raiders.

This week · Raiders on a three-game losing streak with a head coach in his first 17 games in the late-afternoon window
65-51
this game200020052010201520202025
65 covered51 did notevery game since 1999, 56%; since 2021 12-12

The last time the Raiders were here, Oct 27, 2024: lost to the Chiefs by 7 as a 9-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 116 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Raiders.

Searched this week: 1,216 spread situations and 87 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 4.04 on the spread and 3.4 on the total.

Rams -3.5: the strongest angles

last game's spread in their favor (minus = underdog) 6.5 pts or more; how much they beat the spread a game (minus = missed) -4.32 pts or less 112-63

their QB's year in the league 15 or more; the opponent's overs hit this season 60% or more 94-55

their QB's year in the league 15 or more; the opponent's overs hit this season 54% or more 124-75

Raiders +3.5: the strongest angles

points they allowed a game over the last three 20.67 pts or more; their QB's year in the league 15 or more 158-93

their QB's year in the league 12 or more; their injury cost minus the opponent's -19.5 or less 106-63

points they scored a game over the last three 24 pts or more; their QB's year in the league 15 or more 150-92

Over 48.5: the strongest angles

what the opponent's defense allows to 6'3"+ receivers vs league 0.89 x or less; last game's spread in the opponent's favor (minus = underdog) 10 pts or more 37-14

how much they beat the spread two games ago -22 pts or less; how much they beat the spread a game (minus = missed) -1.38 pts or more 55-25

how much they beat the spread two games ago -22 pts or less; the referee's overs rate 48% or more 92-51

Under 48.5: the strongest angles

what the opponent's defense allows to 6'3"+ receivers vs league 0.87 x or less; their defensive line vs the other (plus = worse) -1 tiers or less 88-46

what the opponent's defense allows to 6'3"+ receivers vs league 0.87 x or less; their defensive line vs the other (plus = worse) -2 tiers or less 62-33

the opponent's receivers' height, by targets 74.5 in or more; the opponent's pass offense vs our pass defense (plus = worse) -4 tiers or less 57-30

Michael Mayer Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115): 4 of 6 this season.

Michael Mayer TE LV Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115)Confidence 56
Why: this season 32, 23, 32, 82, 2, 95 (average 44) · Against: under 29.5 in 20 of 29 since 2024; LA allow 19% less than league to his position
4 of 6this season
Brock Bowers TE LV Under 6.5 receptions (-145)Confidence 55
Why: under 6.5 in 12 of 16 at home; LA allow 1% less than league to his position · Against: this season 10, 6, 8, 4 (average 7)
2 of 4this season
Kyren Williams RB LA Under 26.5 receiving yards (-115)Confidence 53
Why: under 26.5 in 31 of 39 since 2024; LV allow 4% less than league to his position · Against: this season 24, 12, 70, 67, 27, 17 (average 36)
3 of 6this season
7 more posted lines with no read either way

Matthew Stafford 260.5 passing yards (over in 20 of his 39, 2024-2026), Kirk Cousins 238.5 passing yards (over in 12 of his 30, 2024-2026), Kirk Cousins 1.5 rushing yards (over in 6 of his 30, 2024-2026), Ashton Jeanty 25.5 receiving yards (over in 11 of his 23, 2025-2026), Ashton Jeanty 3.5 receptions (over in 10 of his 23, 2025-2026), Kyren Williams 3.5 receptions (over in 8 of his 39, 2024-2026) and Blake Corum 1.5 receptions (over in 5 of his 37, 2024-2026).

Our number for this game.

Our number Rams -2.0 against the market Rams -3.5: 1.5 toward the Raiders.

Last A Grade bet, graded: SEA at DEN, week 6, George Holani under 1.5 receptions (+110), won +0.55u; stamped Thu 7:41 PM ET; closed 1.5, matched the close.

15 picks on the official card.

Kyren Williams over 64.5 rushing yards (-110.0)Watching · not a bet
His history: over 63.5 in 28 of 39 games · His history, the matchup and the script point the same way · Take it at 64.5 or lower · stamped Wed 8:50 PM ET
Tyler Higbee over 37.5 receiving yards (-109 at DraftKings)Watching · not a bet
Where the line misses: over against a line missing two, 57% of 231 since 2019, +0.07u a bet · A rule and the script point the same way · Take it at 37.5 or lower · stamped Wed 8:50 PM ET
Colby Parkinson over 19.5 receiving yards (-109 at DraftKings)Watching · not a bet
Where the line misses: over against a line missing two, 57% of 231 since 2019, +0.07u a bet · A rule and the script point the same way · Take it at 19.5 or lower · stamped Wed 8:50 PM ET
Ashton Jeanty under 50.5 rushing yards (-113 at DraftKings)Watching · not a bet
The grid: 0 angles say over, 8 under; best, at home as an underdog with a high total: 59% of 311 · The grid and the script point the same way · Take it at 50.5 or higher · stamped Wed 8:50 PM ET
Brock Bowers under 69.5 receiving yards (-112.0 at DraftKings)Small play · 0.25 units
Early-week under: The market: our projection 44.4 receiving yards, first posted at 69.5 (71.5 now); the under by 20% past the price · · Take it at 69.5 or higher · stamped Wed 1:18 PM ET
Kirk Cousins under 35.5 pass attempts (-110.0 at DraftKings/Bovada)Small play · 0.25 units
Early-week under: The market: our projection 32.4 pass attempts, first posted at 35.5 (35.5 now); the under by 10% past the price · · Take it at 35.5 or higher · stamped Wed 8:50 PM ET
LV team total Over 20.5 (-145 at Bovada)Watching · not a bet
The market: our Raiders team total is 22.9, 2.4 points over the posted 20.5 · · Take it at 20.5 or lower · stamped Tue 12:45 PM ET
Over 47.5 (-104.0)Watching · not a bet
The market (totals model): The totals model has the game at 49.6, sitting 1.1 points over the posted 48.5; Team history (team trend): The Rams have gone over in 7 of 9 games as a road favorite indoors (2021-2026, McVay and Stafford); The script (game read): The script projects Stafford throwing around 43 passes from a clean pocket (0.39 EPA/dropback clean, 4th of 35) against the Raiders' 25th-ranked pass defense in a dome · A read: team history; against it: team history · Take it at 47.5 or lower · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET
LV +4.5 (-110 at ReBet)Watching · not a bet
A rule: model likes them by 1.0+, better record, worse QB, in a dome · A read: a rule; against it: team history · Take it at +4.5 or better · stamped Tue 12:45 PM ET
Under 47.5 (-110.0)Watching · not a bet
DraftKings 2026-10-23T16:05: LV spread 58% of bets, 71% of money (13 points apart) · A read: team history; against it: team history · Take it at 47.5 or higher · stamped Tue 12:45 PM ET
Puka Nacua under 7.5 catches (+100 at DraftKings)Watching · not a bet
The grid: 0 angles say over, 3 under; best, as a favorite with a high total in the late window: 59% of 402 · · Take it at 7.5 or higher · stamped Wed 8:50 PM ET
Konata Mumpfield under 1.5 catches (+134 at DraftKings)Watching · not a bet
The grid: 0 angles say over, 3 under; best, as a favorite with a high total in the late window: 59% of 402 · · Take it at 1.5 or higher · stamped Wed 8:50 PM ET
Tre Tucker under 3.5 catches (-141 at DraftKings)Watching · not a bet
The grid: 0 angles say over, 8 under; best, with a high total after a loss with a starting defensive back out: 58% of 506 · A read: the grid; against it: the script · Take it at 3.5 or higher · stamped Thu 12:55 PM ET
Blake Corum over 37.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)Watching · not a bet
The grid: 3 angles say over, 2 under; best, as a favorite with a high total after a loss: 59% of 255 · A read: the script · Take it at 37.5 or lower · stamped Thu 12:55 PM ET
LA -4.5 (-105.0)Watching · not a bet
The Rams have covered 10 of 14 on the road with a total of 48 or higher · A read: team history; against it: a rule · Take it at -4.5 or better · stamped Thu 12:55 PM ET
Blake Corum under 7.5 receiving yards (-120.0)withdrawn
His history: Under in 23 of 27 as a favorite, 4 of 9 everywhere else · His history and the matchup point the same way; against it: the script · Take it at 7.5 or higher · stamped Wed 8:50 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 22: no longer qualifies on the latest inputs (status, weather, price or a conflict)
Williams over 64.5 rush yds + LA -4.5 (story parlay)withdrawn
Kyren Williams holds the LA top rushing-yards line · · stamped Wed 8:50 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 22: its anchor leg (2026_07_LA_LV|prop|Kyren Williams|rushing yards|over) is no longer an official pick
Michael Mayer under 3.5 catches (-105.0)withdrawn
Under in 21 of 28 games, 2024-2026 · A read: his history; against it: the script · Take it at 3.5 or higher · stamped Wed 8:50 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 22: no longer qualifies on the latest inputs (status, weather, price or a conflict)
Tre Tucker under 38.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)withdrawn
The grid: 0 angles say over, 3 under; best, with a high total after a loss with a starting defensive back out: 57% of 551 · · Take it at 38.5 or higher · stamped Wed 8:50 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 22: one leg a player (Tre Tucker under 3.5 catches is on the card)

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