Josh Hines-Allen
Jacksonville JaguarsModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 17 games
Draft & College
He went well ahead of consensus.
Comps
STM Take
Two Pro Bowls (2022, 2023) plus the 2023 1st-team All-Pro after 17.5 sacks plus the 2025 tier 2 (#16) bounce-back from the 2024 tier 5 dip puts Hines-Allen in the small group of late-prime edge defenders with reliable elite production. The Kentucky 7th overall draft slot plus seven years of Jaguars starter reps gives him the structural career résumé. The 2026 question is whether Hines-Allen returns to tier 1 territory or whether the 2024-2025 tier 2-5 swing reflects scheme-dependent ceiling.
Hines-Allen came out of Kentucky as the Jacksonville Jaguars' 1st-round pick (7th overall) in 2019 and has made two Pro Bowls (2022, 2023) including the 2023 1st-team All-Pro nod after 17.5 sacks. He has anchored the Jaguars' pass rush across seven seasons. His STTM career runs tier 5 (#37) in 2024 and tier 2 (#16) in 2025, with the bounce-back from the rough 2024 confirming the elite ceiling is still reachable.
Strengths
- Two Pro Bowls (2022, 2023) plus the 2023 1st-team All-Pro after 17.5 sacks confirms a top-5 edge defender ceiling exists at peak.
- Seven years of Jaguars starter reps as the structural pass-rush anchor gives him the structural locker-room weight that pure stat-ranking doesn't capture.
Concerns
- 2024 tier 5 (#37) dip flags the structural ceiling is scheme- and team-fit dependent rather than guaranteed.
- Jacksonville's broader defensive identity instability plus the Trevor Lawrence offensive context puts continued Hines-Allen elite production partly outside his control.
What to watch: Whether Hines-Allen returns to tier 1 (top 10) in 2026 plus earns his third Pro Bowl, the threshold for confirming the 2023 1st-team All-Pro ceiling is structural.